Rather than respond in my usual bad manner, why don't you lay out for us exactly how experts like you do the following:
"The simple fact is if you buy dollars for 70c because people are afraid of them, and sell them when they're worth $1.30 because everyone has lost their minds, dont put all your eggs in one basket, dont take on too much or too little risk, and be able to weather a few bad years...YOU'LL BE FINE!"
Since it is all so easy for you, just tell me exactly where I should have my money on Monday morning. Not a bunch of generalizations that cannot be tracked, but exactly what my positions should be. Let's assume I have $2Million, am ER'd and need to withdraw 4% and am 55 years old. You will ruin the rest of my life (and possibly my kids lives also) if I run out of money before I die, so no pressure there.
I'd like some of those easy 14% returns you've told us about. This time it will have to be future returns though, as we will be watching live. I'll be waiting for your reply, don't let me down now.
Any Beaver Cheese spreads looking especially cheap out there?
P.S.
"To put this into perspective, the four-quarter trailing EPS figure in the 2001 recession hit a trough of around $38; in the 1991 recession, the trough was just over $18. That means that we are not talking about Armageddon [projecting $45 earnings], but rather offering up some analysis highlighting the risks to the outlook. We will bottom at levels much higher than the troughs in the past; that is the good news.
The not-so-good news is that the level of the S&P 500 in the past that tended to coincide with $45 earnings was right around the 1,000 mark; and if we were to slap on a typical trough multiple of 10-12x on that earnings stream, then ... well, you do the calculation."
Quote from David Rosenberg, the North American Economist at Merrill Lynch. You see, who do I trust, CFB (a rabbit) or maybe someone who has a title that sounds like he might know something. By the way, since you are so good at figuring stuff out, did you do the calculation?