a different spin on the current economic situation in the US. no green shoots included
Into the Abyss: The Cycle of Debt Deflation | Before It's News
Into the Abyss: The Cycle of Debt Deflation | Before It's News
One of the most famous quotations of Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises is that “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.”
The major problems facing the US economy today—a tsunami or [sic] debt defaults, structural unemployment, massive government budget deficits, a contraction of the broad money supply outside of the federal government and the financial system, and a lack of sustainable growth—cannot be addressed as long as excess debt levels are maintained. As von Mises clearly understood, sound economic conditions cannot be restored unless and until the excess debt, which resulted from a boom brought about by credit expansion, is purged from the system. The alternative, and the current policy of the United States, is a downward spiral into a bottomless economic abyss.
Don't worry, be happy...
The Economic Recovery Is Real - Why fears of a second recession are overblown
Don't worry, be happy...
The Economic Recovery Is Real - Why fears of a second recession are overblown
Hey, don't be intimidated by this guy. He puts on his tinfoil hat the same way you do - one leg at a time.what a crackpot -
Hey, don't be intimidated by this guy. He puts on his tinfoil hat the same way you do - one leg at a time.
no double dip -- what a short memory. clipped from the article:
this recession goes back a decade.
Oh, heck. Don't stop there. Roll with Robert Prechter Jr, who has us exiting the Grand Supercycle upward waves from the early 1700s to January 2000. As of January 14, 2000 we are now is Grand Supercycle Wave 4, where we'll eventually retest the lows of the South Sea Bubble, or at least see the Dow Jones Industrial Average breach 400 (four hundred, two zeroes).
There is also the possibility that the current Grand Supercycle is the 5th wave of the Millennium Wave that started with the end of the Dark Ages, in which case we will be re-entering a new Dark Age, after a period of deflationary depression, hyperinflation, and the collapse of civilization.
I figure that I can probably increase my safe withdrawal rate slightly.
Elliot waves make for a great story, just as epicycles made a great story for pre-Copernican astronomers. I'm not big on the whole predestination, Cycles Control All gig, myself.
i'm familiar with prechter. he's been swinging and missing a lot. i'm not into cycles or TA either.
i can see a large inflation adjusted loss spanning the last decade though. wonder if prechter predicted that? probably not.
i'm familiar with prechter. he's been swinging and missing a lot. i'm not into cycles or TA either.
YouTube - Jessica Lee Goldyn - Dance: Ten; Looks: ThreeI'm not into cycles either. But I'm a big fan of T&A.
The last time his newsletter recommended traders be long in stocks was in 1997 (S&P 500 at 750-800). He missed the losses of the last decade, as well as the gains of the late 1990s, and 13 years of dividends. Not exactly great.
The Hulbert Financial Digest found that out of 32 portfolios by 25 newsletters, the Elliot Wave Theorist came last for the period 1988-1997, with an annualized return of 5.84%; during that same period, the S&P 500 had annualized returns of 18.04%. That's not particularly good for something that claims to be such a detailed model. He completely missed the most significant bull market in recent history.
To his credit, he outperformed the market during the recent bear cycle, by simply continuing to be out of the stock market. Then again, buy and hold bond investors had similar performance.
Obviously, I don't buy into his Grand Supercycle doomsday forecasts.