Prediction for tomorrow

[wabmester]

Of all the surprises in the world, it turned out to be that there wasn't a surprise. Big surprise...

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

 

[brewer12345]

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.    The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.   It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

Pretty much true. I think over the last several years the Fed has gotten pretty good about telegraphing things. I am beginning to suspect that it has made them less effectve at fighting inflation, though.

 

[haha]

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody.    The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula.   It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

Kind of like the formula for boiling a frog. Hey, she shot me, but I was expecting it, so no harm done.

Ha

 

[HFWR]

With a lag of 1-2yrs before interest rate hikes work their way into the economy, it's only in hindsight that we see the results.

 

[laurence]

The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.

 

[donheff]

That, above all, is what the fed chairman sees as his main job: not to surprise anybody. The volatility of the markets has been very low since the fed discovered this secret formula. It doesn't matter what the news is, as long as everybody is expecting it.

I listened to an NPR program in the car today that described Bernicke as a believer in Fed transparency. Not that it will happen any time soon, but apparently he would prefer to work toward a system where the Fed generally followed rules and the rules were known to all. You could just read the numbers as they come out and determine for yourself what the Fed will do.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Either that, or Elevator Ben declines to comment further to reporters because he is busy getting ready for a quail hunting trip with the Vice President.

Is that "quail" hunting...or "Quayle" hunting?

 

[d]

there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows

for all practical purposes, there is one.  google "taylor rule". in spite of it, there's still some guessing as one must still read the tea leaves to determine the underlying rates of inflation and potential GDP, and navigate the inherent time lags.

 

[Nords]

The system is stupid, there should be a transparent formula that everyone knows, that raises/lowers rates x amount when certain indicators reach key levels, so there is no more of this crazy crap shoot vegas betting. Uncertainty is expensive.

Great idea!

We could call it the "CPI"... no wait...

 

[audreyh1]

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey

 

[brewer12345]

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money. I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.

 

[wabmester]

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move...

Your MOVI pick is starting to look a little better today too.

 

[haha]

Definately making the puts I bought yesterday look like a smart move, although they are still out of the money.  I wish it were otherwise, but I don't especially like what I see for the next 6 months or so.

Hey Sweetie, we all know you are smart.  But enough of this "I wish it were otherwise..."

I've already spread goofer dust, and a little later I'm going to sacrifice a chicken so I can smear this little rubber bull on my desk with blood and feathers. So many false starts! I think the problem is that I haven’t been attentive enough to Ogún.

The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!

Ha

 

[Nords]

The righteous have waited too long, bring on the mayhem!!

That sounds a lot more impressive than "Sell in May and go away"...

 

[laurence]

(sigh) and I had gotten used to making money. I guess the market slowly realized Bernake promised nothing, and $75 oil isn't going away.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Dive! Dive! Go lower! Yay!

(Payday along with my automatic contribution is Monday)

 

[rs0460a]

It's "interesting" to see these "short term" comments on the current market "gyrations".

For those that haven’t seen the article, go to:

http://news.morningstar.com/article/pfarticle.asp?id=162327&format=pfarticle

In it, Sue Stevens talks about the idea of the "cash pool":

"Set up a cash pool that will cover 2-5 years' worth of expenses. Take your regular distributions from this pool and periodically fill it up"

That being the case, my current plan has 2.5-3 years of short-term cash, which will (in most cases) avoid the "necessity" to draw out of my 60/40 mix.  Of course, I'll "refill the bucket" from the equity/bond side on up years, to maintain my pool.

These short-term gyrations won't mean as much to me (in retirement) when I execute my plan.

- Ron

 

[REWahoo]

For those that haven’t seen the article, go to:

http//news.morningstar.com/article/pfarticle.asp?id=162327&format=pfarticle

Ron, do you expect us to take seriously any information contained in a link with this URL?

 

[Nords]

Your MOVI pick is starting to look a little better today too. 

Daily share volume for the last few months has been around 300,000. Today it was nearly 40 million. The stock finished up 51%, although we should keep in mind that's after falling over 90% in the last year. So a dollar dropped to a dime and then added a nickel.

MOVI is talking a deal with Blockbuster, even though they're still suffering from the digestion of Hollywood Video. Meanwhile Netflix is only about 10% short of an all-time high.

Would that be like all the buggywhip makers consolidating against Henry Ford?

 

[wabmester]

MOVI is talking a deal with Blockbuster, even though they're still suffering from the digestion of Hollywood Video.  Meanwhile Netflix is only about 10% short of an all-time high.

Would that be like all the buggywhip makers consolidating against Henry Ford?

I don't know about the buggywhip analogy.   They're all in the video rental biz.   They all have the same operating margins.   The main difference is that MOVI has an eye-popping price/sales ratio of 0.08 and a market cap rougly equal to their cash on hand.

Those numbers look good to me.    But I'll admit that I don't much about stock picking.   I'll defer to the guy who bought NT because it's run by a submariner. 

 

[Nords]

Those numbers look good to me.    But I'll admit that I don't much about stock picking.   I'll defer to the guy who bought NT because it's run by a submariner. 

I'm trying to emulate Buffett. Remember how he bought World Book for its encyclopedia monopoly about six months before Microsoft released the Encarta CD-ROM?

So far the quantity of my stock-market learning has been directly proportional to my losses. MOVI has taught me far more than NT!

 

[audreyh1]

Hey, the market is having a good ol' selloff today!!

Can't I still get credit for my "sell on the news" prediction?

So it took a few hours for everyone to react!

Audrey

OK - now this really has been a WHALE of a selloff event! A whole WEEK of selling - wow!

And looks like it hasn't finished yet?.......

Audrey