Promising Editorial On SS "Are Benefits Safe" from AARP Bulletin 11-2018

This is completely relevant to the SS thread, as one group pays into the SS system, and the other does not.

DonHeff’s post shows that you are incorrect in your assumptions about the majority of illegals not contributing to SS and Medicare via FICA taxes plus income taxes.

On the other hand - plenty of self-employed folks can minimize the FICA taxes they pay. A relative gleefully reported minimal income from his businesses so as to minimize taxes, and then later - oops! SS earnings were very low. Not too good when they needed it.
 
We agree. I also think a flat [any amount] isn't going to fly.

There sort of is a flat amount already built into the system. If our friend Andy was covered for 30 years (which we can presume since he worked but he just didn't earn much) then his benefits would be the greater of what he was due under the formula or the special minimum benefit of $872.50/month or $10,470 a year.
 
There sort of is a flat amount already built into the system. If our friend Andy was covered for 30 years (which we can presume since he worked but he just didn't earn much) then his benefits would be the greater of what he was due under the formula or the special minimum benefit of $872.50/month or $10,470 a year.

I don't think "minimum benefit" and "flat amount" are the same thing. Do you?
 
Strike that... going back, I think he was advocating transitioning to a flat benefit regardless of earnings ... lame idea IMO.
 
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USGrant beat me to it. The 2034 and 77% (or thereabout) numbers have been published many places, most importantly in the annual SS trustees report. As to the inevitability of a reduction in payments once the trust fund is depleted, I'd have to find a source, but I'm confident in the information. Look at it this way -- where else would the money come from? They can't just pay it out of general funds.

But that is exactly what happened in 2009-10 when Obama cut payroll taxes by 2 %. The money was made up from general funds.
 
But that is exactly what happened in 2009-10 when Obama cut payroll taxes by 2 %. The money was made up from general funds.

Yes, a law was passed to do that. The Social Security Administration cannot do that themselves. The whole gist of this thread is that SS cannot meet its long-term obligations without legislation - contrary to AARP's assertion that benefits are "safe."
 
Better yet, have you listened to the arguments of PB4, marko & others? Their argument is one of fairness & fulfilling a commitment (explicit, implied, whatever...clearly a commitment). While most of us on this thread seem to agree that some SS adjustments are required, views of “fairness” will likely vary (especially by generation) but, it’s a tough argument to make that changing the rules when it’s too late for a retiree/prospective retiree to adjust is anywhere close to “fair.”
I think we should look at "fair" from both sides of the issue. Is it fair to tell workers who struggle to earn less than $30,000 per year that they must pay taxes so retirees who earned $130,000+ per year for decades can get SS benefits of $30,000 per year? (Especially when those retirees say they intend to use the SS benefit for another European trip.)

Or to tell them they have to live up to a "commitment" that somebody else made before today's workers were even voters (or at least, before they made up a substantial portion of the voting population)? I don't think that is anywhere close to "fair", either.

I think that parents should care for their children when the kids are young. The parents should also provide the kids an opportunity to be productive workers. Given that, I think it is "fair" that the children should care for the parents in their old age. Different societies have different ways to do that. In concept, SS is a "fair" component of our current system.

But, that doesn't mean that I think the formulas that worked for the WWII generation will work for the Boomers, the numbers just don't add up. I don't think it is "fair" to expect the taxpayers to make up all the difference. I don't think this problem should come as a surprise to the older generation. We've known about this for a long time, and consistently refused to push on politicians to make pro-active changes.

I think it is much harder for the low income near retirees to adjust because their SS benefits are paying for the necessities. So, I don't like flat percentage cuts (and raising the FRA is a flat percentage cut, and longevity extension is a higher income issue). If we're going to reduce benefits, I'd rather adjust the PIA formula.

Really? Have you read Fleming?.
it’s been roundly criticized; it’s as much a repudiation of Communism during the McCarthy era as anything; it was narrowly decided 5-4, with the Chief Justice voting in dissent. And, probably most importantly for this discussion, it was a decision that “due process” versus the 5th Amendment’s “takings clause” is what applies to SS; note that the first listed criteria in due process is “fairness.”
No, I hadn't read it. I just posted the conventional interpretation. I read the dissent today.

To me, the people who crafted SS used words from private, advance funded pension plans to make SS more politically palatable. The the laws actually created a paygo income transfer system. In his dissent, Douglas bought into the pretty words and didn't follow the money. He was in the minority. I cannot predict what a future SC would do. The justices are word people, not numbers people.

There are posters here who said they lost thousands in the 2015 changes. Maybe some enterprising lawyer will find grounds for a class action suit there.
 
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Strike that... going back, I think he was advocating transitioning to a flat benefit regardless of earnings
Yes.
(FWIW, more on minimum benefit here https://www.ssa.gov/retirementpolicy/program/special-minimum.html)
... lame idea IMO.
It hasn't gotten a lot of traction politically. But, it does appear in B&S's handy link as somebody's proposal. See "progressive indexing" B1.2 and following at https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions_tr2017/summary.html
 
I think we should look at "fair" from both sides of the issue. Is it fair to tell workers who struggle to earn less than $30,000 per year that they must pay taxes so retirees who earned $130,000+ per year for decades can get SS benefits of $30,000 per year? (Especially when those retirees say they intend to use the SS benefit for another European trip.)....

Just tell workers who struggle to earn less than $30,000 per year that they must pay taxes because it is the law and that their survivors will get benefits if they were to die prematurely, that they would be eligible for benefits if they become disabled and that they will ultimately qualify for a retirement benefit (that wiil be paid for by their kids).... convienently, it also happens to be the truth.

Current recipients have been told for year that they will qualify for $30,000 per year of benefits and paid a lot of money in anticipation of those benefits... what they spend it on... be it a European trip or necessities or charity or passing it on to their kids is totally irrelevant.

We can add that they should have applied themselves better in school or worked harder or smarter if you wish, but I think that would be unnecessarily mean so I would avoid it.
 
Just tell workers who struggle to earn less than $30,000 per year that they must pay taxes because it is the law.

I don't hear anyone arguing that. No one is saying that lower income workers shouldn't pay FICA taxes. Or that workers who earn more than $30,000 shouldn't pay FICA taxes for that matter. What I'm advocating is that today's youngsters not have their FICA tax burden increased just because there are a bunch of geezers who didn't lead a financially prudent life and now can't take care of themselves. Or, if they can take care of themselves, they just enjoy having their hand in someone else's pocket.

I'd support today's non-geezers not having a FICA tax increase or a FRA increase. Give 'em the same deal we got. Whatever solutions are eventually decided upon (across the board cuts, means-tested cuts, whatever) can come from the output end of the equation.

This may or may not result in today's younger folks getting smaller checks. Since the trust fund will be depleted and we'll be operating on a pay as you go system, their benefits years from now will depend on the ratio of workers to retirees at that time.

We need to take some responsibility for ourselves. We boomers are the bubble in the collecting age population causing the problem.
 
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As I said in post #167, “...views of fairness will likely vary.” So, although your views on this are IMO well reasoned, they are very different than mine. Here’s how someone with my view reads the points in your post:

I think we should look at "fair" from both sides of the issue. Is it fair to tell workers who [-]struggle to[/-] earn less than $30,000 per year that they must pay taxes so retirees who earned more will receive more SS? [-]$130,000+ per year for decades can get SS benefits of $30,000 per year? (Especially when those retirees say they intend to use the SS benefit for another European trip.)[/-] Answer: Yes, because that’s always been the basis of the SS formulas; those who earn more will get more (but, less proportional to their income...in the interest of fairness).

Or to tell them they have to live up to a "commitment" that somebody else made before today's workers were even voters (or at least, before they made up a substantial portion of the voting population)? I don't think that is anywhere close to "fair", either. Answer: Yes. Since we’re all arguing for change to the SS system, albeit different changes, change is a given. So, “they” have to live with risk of change like others before them. I’m simply arguing against last minute changes as being the most unfair.

[snip]

I don't think it is "fair" to expect the taxpayers to make up all the difference. Answer: We’re all taxpayers, even retired people.

I don't think this problem should come as a surprise to the older generation. Answer: If I’m retired or nearing retirement, it certainly does come as a surprise; more appropriately, it’s what our word loving lawyer friends would call an ‘unfair surprise’ meaning one didn’t have time to react.

We've known about this for a long time, and consistently refused to push on politicians to make pro-active changes. Red herring.

[snip]

No, I hadn't read it [Fleming. I just posted the conventional interpretation. I read the dissent today.

To me, the people who crafted SS used words from private, advance funded pension plans to make SS more politically palatable. The the laws actually created a paygo income transfer system. In his dissent, Douglas bought into the pretty words and didn't follow the money. He was in the minority. I cannot predict what a future SC would do. The justices are word people, not numbers people. Answer: Agreed. Justices are word people. But, the SS law is words, not numbers. And, my read of Fleming & dissents (I’m not a lawyer) is that the justices were having essentially the same “fairness” discussion that we’re having here. BTW, ‘majority’ does not mean ‘right.’ It simply means ‘majority’ at the time; think Dred Scott.
 
I don't hear anyone arguing that. No one is saying that lower income workers shouldn't pay FICA taxes. Or that workers who earn more than $30,000 shouldn't pay FICA taxes for that matter. What I'm advocating is that today's youngsters not have their FICA tax burden increased just because there are a bunch of geezers who didn't lead a financially prudent life and now can't take care of themselves. I agree that raising the FICA tax rate should be a last resort... though I do advocate eliminating the cap but recognizing increased benefits for those who pay more as a result of th cap being lifted.
Or, if they can take care of themselves, they just enjoy having their hand in someone else's pocket. Here you just got it all wrong... those who can take care of themselves don't have any hand in someone else's pocket... they are just looking for the benefits that they have been told that they would get... they were told that they would get those benefits... not that they would get them only if they needed them.. you are in the minority on this one... you have ample chance to make your case and it is going nowhere, so take a clue.

I'd support today's non-geezers not having a FICA tax increase or a FRA increase. If longevity improves, a FRA increase may be justifiable.. some view that the FRA should be average life less x years of retirement... under that view as longevity improves FRAs would increase accordingly.Give 'em the same deal we got. Whatever solutions are eventually decided upon (across the board cuts, means-tested cuts, whatever) can come from the output end of the equation.

This may or may not result in today's younger folks getting smaller checks. Since the trust fund will be depleted and we'll be operating on a pay as you go system, their benefits years from now will depend on the ratio of workers to retirees at that time.

We need to take some responsibility for ourselves. We boomers are the bubble in the collecting age population causing the problem. We are also the reason that the current balance in the trust fund is $2.89 Trilion.
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Or, if they can take care of themselves, they just enjoy having their hand in someone else's pocket.
Here you just got it all wrong... those who can take care of themselves don't have any hand in someone else's pocket... they are just looking for the benefits that they have been told that they would get... they were told that they would get those benefits... not that they would get them only if they needed them.

I have no problem giving up on the idea of means testing the SS dole for current or future SS collecting geezers. I just suggested it as one alternative to partially solve the funding problem without further reaching into the pockets of the younger generation to support us. I just feel much more strongly than you that I can take care of, and be responsible for, myself without asking the youngsters to transfer more of their income to me. The youngsters are already paying in a higher percentage and working longer for FRA than we did.


I'd support today's non-geezers not having a FICA tax increase or a FRA increase.
If longevity improves, a FRA increase may be justifiable.. some view that the FRA should be average life less x years of retirement... under that view as longevity improves FRAs would increase accordingly

I suppose IF longevity measurably improves, this could be eventually looked it. Especially if it includes some way to factor in variability. That is, the average may go up but the spread may increase. But, I sense that geezers currently suggesting this do so because it will not impact them (surprise! surprise!).


We need to take some responsibility for ourselves. We boomers are the bubble in the collecting age population causing the problem.
We are also the reason that the current balance in the trust fund is $2.89 Trilion.

We can agree there. Spend down the $2.89 Trillion on the Boomers who put it there and then cut payments (across the board if you insist, I don't really care). Just don't charge the youngsters for our irresponsibility of falling short in providing for ourselves.

Hopefully, the across the board cut can be restored by the time today's youth retire since by then there could be a more favorable balance between workers and geezer SS collectors. Boomers will be rapidly falling off the SS payroll by then.........
 
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In this months AARP Bulletin there is an encouraging editorial about Social Security. They list 12 Fun Facts about SS.

Here are some highlights (Not All):

1) Social Security is NOT Going Bankrupt

Isn't it funny how there are always concerns about Social Security, yet welfare and food stamps just seem to always have enough funds. So the working people have to worry and those who don't...don't. Interesting.
 
..... The youngsters are already paying in a higher percentage and working longer for FRA than we did......

Not sure how old you are but not so much for me. The rate has been 6.2% since 1990 and ~80% of my career earnings have been subject to that 6.2% rate (85% of the FICA tax that I paid over my career was at that 6.2% rate)... the FRA change is only an additional 10 months (67 vs 66 and 2 months... their FRA is 1.3% longer than mine).
 
Rather than one obvious naysayer, I think the report is both positive and relieving. Hopefully we will not see the potential haircuts and speculated changes that have been discussed at length in other posts. One can also feel a little better about waiting to take SS as the chances are it will be solvent, at least in my lifetime.

Well, since there was a mention of a SS "trust fund" being sound, and we know Congress has used those funds for cow flatulence studies and other important work and there are only IOUs in the "trust fund", I tend to take AARP and their support of liberal politicians with the membership money they receive, with a grain of salt.


They also said the part about Congress using the funds is false, then turned around and said they use the funds but must pay them back with interest. Typical doublespeak.
 
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Can you please point us to some credible documents that explain this?

Geez, you can always tell an engineer, but you can't tell him much. The facts are in the AARP article and the opinion is valid based on past practice. Do you have refuting facts?
 
A reminder to keep partisan politics out of the discussion, please.
 
Not sure how old you are but not so much for me. The rate has been 6.2% since 1990 and ~80% of my career earnings have been subject to that 6.2% rate (85% of the FICA tax that I paid over my career was at that 6.2% rate)... the FRA change is only an additional 10 months (67 vs 66 and 2 months... their FRA is 1.3% longer than mine).
Will you just stop being logical and let misstatements stand uncorrected? Lol
 
....there are only IOUs in the "trust fund"....

They also said the part about Congress using the funds is false, then turned around and said they use the funds but must pay them back with interest. Typical doublespeak.

Well Caskem, the Trust fund invested excess funds in US Government bonds... "full faith and credit"... the main investment of most pension funds... if you were a trustee what would you have suggested that the funds be invested in?
 
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On the subject of 'means testing' SS, I think the test will actually be to tax a greater percentage of SS benefit up to 100% of it. We might also see a new inflection point that reduce the payout a bit for top earners and increases it a bit for the low earners. Just my 2¢.

As far as young folks paying for us old folks, well... SS is not the real problem. The real problem is the HUGE deficits we are running year after year after year. SS could be completely fixed and 100% monetarily neutral tomorrow, and they would keep running up huge deficits, IMHO. What happened to all the Deficit Hawks?
 
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