Retire next year at 45?

[pacergal]

Beaverton, West Linn, LO and Tualatin all have excellent school systems consistently ranking high. Some schools in Portland do well, others not so much. Oregon is a great place to live, but you have to like the rainy gray days most of the year.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Marko, no doubt this has been extremely helpful and supportive. I appreciate it. One thing I will say though is that the country club thing is not really the problem, I love golf and nice golf courses, and I also like paddle sports. It's not really the issue, though the expense is part of it. I think the issue is more where I am personally, it no longer aligns with slugging it out on Wallstreet, whether because I have accumulated sufficient assets or whether I have become more self actualized it doesn't matter. It is what it is.

Check out the San Francisco Bay area if you like camping and paddle sports. The home prices are only super high in the City itself and Silicon Valley and a few other very well off areas. There are many more reasonably priced, upper middle class suburbs. Plus initial cost is one factor in housing - long term appreciation potential may trump that. We bought during a boom period, paid twice as much for a house here compared to the state we moved from, but it was still a much better investment long term than our previous house due to appreciation combined with property taxes not going up much due to Prop 13.

On the country club and nanny front, IMHO, there is not anything wrong with either one. If you enjoy golf and a country club by all means keep going to one. If you look at the happiness research, the key is to live where you can easily be the Joneses instead of trying to keep up with them. There are many places you could live with your NW, belong to a country club and still be the Joneses.

 

[StuckinCT]

I think that I will always have some type of club or golf course affiliation. There are some courses that are more reasonable, low initiations and more laid back. Definitely agree it is better to be a big fish in a small pond for a lot of reasons. This is the biggest pond you can find outside of NYC. In our town, where we may actually be more the Jones' than not, everyone is always comparing themselves to hedgies or the bankers so it's like no one ever feels like they have made it. I have the same concern about being in Cali, and though there is more pressure on that coast to have the S model etc, I think people are more laid back. But the funny thing is, the corporate attitude is so pervasive here, yet we are losing corporate headquarters and people due to the taxes and the high cost of living. I would have loved to bought in Marin county five years ago, but my understanding is that California real estate is very cyclical. I could be wrong but I feel like I missed the boat. I think it's also good from a community minded perspective to be a big fish in a small community.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I think that I will always have some type of club or golf course affiliation. There are some courses that are more reasonable, low initiations and more laid back. Definitely agree it is better to be a big fish in a small pond for a lot of reasons. This is the biggest pond you can find outside of NYC. In our town, where we may actually be more the Jones' than not, everyone is always comparing themselves to hedgies or the bankers so it's like no one ever feels like they have made it. I have the same concern about being in Cali, and though there is more pressure on that coast to have the S model etc, I think people are more laid back. But the funny thing is, the corporate attitude is so pervasive here, yet we are losing corporate headquarters and people due to the taxes and the high cost of living. I would have loved to bought in Marin county five years ago, but my understanding is that California real estate is very cyclical. I could be wrong but I feel like I missed the boat. I think it's also good from a community minded perspective to be a big fish in a small community.

It is a boom and bust economy and housing prices are high right now, no doubt about that. But the median home price in Marin is $1M which is easily affordable to you. North of Marin the median home price in Sonoma County drops to $500K. If you are optimizing for money either one may not be the best location. You can get much more house for your money most other areas in the U.S. If you want to optimize for weather, scenery, day trips, state parks and national forests, paddle sports, regional parks and cultural attractions, it may be a place to add to your short list of places to consider moving to.

 

[Gumby]

Let me respectfully suggest that you don't need to leave Connecticut to escape the Fairfield County rat race. Just move east of Bridgeport. You could have quite a nice, low key and low stress life up in the Valley, or over in New Haven County. For many years I commuted from Milford into Manhattan. Yes, it was a bit longer on the train, but being able to live in a more middle class community was worth the extra time.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

StuckinCT, I admire your ability to handle volatility. Ordinarily I wouldn't even reply to someone who has a net worth of 7 - 8 million. You are simply living in a different world than many (most) of the rest of us are. Regarding your estimates of losses, I do wholeheartedly agree that dividend stocks are much preferred and the plan to be consume only the dividends is great. However, those stocks certainly go up and down by a lot. GE, went down by more than 50% during the great recession. It's dividend did as well.

It is a good plan to be at 80% stocks if you can afford to handle this sort of volatility, which in your case due to the rather extreme high net worth, you can. Heck, does it really matter if you are 100% stocks, or 100% cash? I suspect that you probably could consume pure cash and have what many of us would think of as a result quite comfortable living, including sending the kids to college, etc. But I digress...

My estimate of income from a 45% stocks and 55% bonds portfolio I think, respectfully disagreeing with your numbers, is 6% as calculated by 10% last century average return of stocks *.45 plus 3% return of the blend of long and mid term indexes of good bonds (roughly half corporate and half treasuries) *. 55 = 6%.

It is fairly well known that long term treasuries are the best counter to declining stocks in a downturn market.

None of us have great choices right now. The stock market is still extremely overvalued, but so are bonds.

I have run simulations using both Vanguard and Fidelity tools to compare the 60/40 portfolio vs the 40/60 portfolio of stocks vs bonds and the results actually are extremely close on predicting the probability of money lasting my 94 year old estimated life.

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[StuckinCT]

Let me respectfully suggest that you don't need to leave Connecticut to escape the Fairfield County rat race. Just move east of Bridgeport. You could have quite a nice, low key and low stress life up in the Valley, or over in New Haven County. For many years I commuted from Milford into Manhattan. Yes, it was a bit longer on the train, but being able to live in a more middle class community was worth the extra time.

There is a part of me that definitely loves eastern CT, I grew going to Mystic area in the summers, and the Guilford Madison area is quite nice as is Milford, I used to fish the mouth of the Housy every spring. I think though that this state is in decline. If there were a place where I thought things wer on the upswing I would move there in a heart beat. I'd like to make something on my house! Real estate hasn't budged in twenty years in the Hartford suburbs, they have missed two cycles. Our governor and representatives are ruining the state and I expect others to follow GE out of here. Our tax base is too dependent on the investment banks and hedge funds in Fairfield county and they're all leaving too. I hate to be a Debbie downer, hopefully things will come back one day.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

So if you are more comfortable with more stocks, it's OK. If you are more comfortable with a little more bonds, that is ok too.

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[StuckinCT]

So if you are more comfortable with more stocks, it's OK. If you are more comfortable with a little more bonds, that is ok too.

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Too funny and fair point. There was a good article in Barron's this weekend on allocations. I also use Blackrock ishare model allocations, as a guide. I think if you are in individual bonds or ETFs with defined maturities, you have less exposure too to interest rate risk, ie if rates go up.

 

[Fedup]

I think your worries about California is somewhat unfounded. All the cities you've listed are crazy expensive. There much nicer area and great school district. Much more laid back than La Jolla, Pacific Palisades, Laguna, Marin county. If you have relatives in California, it makes a lot more sense to move here.


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[Golden sunsets]

Stuck; You mentioned Portland Me in your original post. Let me be the first to suggest that you further your investigation of the Portland suburbs as a possible relocation spot. DH and I relocated to the area in 1991 with our then 5 and 7 year olds. We relocated from a NJ suburb where the competitiveness factor was unbearable. All kids went to sleep away camp for the entire summer by the age of 8. DH commuted into Manhattan daily. His commute was 3.5 hours on a good day and there weren't that many good days. The play date and kid birthday party schedule required an electronic calendar. One day DH got home and informed me that he thought he was going to die in the Lincoln Tunnel. Fast forward 4 months and we were in a beautiful oceanfront community one town north of Portland. You would be the Jones in this town although it is affluent. A $900,000 home would most likely buy you an ocean view. The school system is ranked #242 on the U.S. NWR ranking. The next town north is ranked #238. There are three country clubs in our community and two ice arenas. The City of Portland is vibrant with a renowned "restaurant scene" with numerous James Beard award winners. Casco Bay is beautiful with many gorgeous islands, beaches, biking trails and green spaces. The arts scene is very lively. The mountains of New Hampshire and western Maine are only 1.5 hours away. Weekend hiking with our children was one of our favorite family activities. The local schools organize after school skiing on Wednesdays at a mountain only 45 minutes away. Trader Joe's and Whole Foods await those who don't want to be deprived of eclectic groceries. Boston is a reasonable 1.5 hour drive or two hour Amtrack train ride. I noticed that you have emphasized education so I would point out that the quality is superior here with AP/IB programs that will ensure your child's exposure to excellence. Our children were extremely well prepared for college and were accepted Early to their first choice schools(one an Ivy). The State College system is not good but Bowdoin, Bates and Colby are all within 30-45 minutes. This area should be on your short list.

 

[rodi]

I think your worries about California is somewhat unfounded. All the cities you've listed are crazy expensive. There much nicer area and great school district. Much more laid back than La Jolla, Pacific Palisades, Laguna, Marin county. If you have relatives in California, it makes a lot more sense to move here.


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You can be La Jolla "adjacent" for 900k or less. I know because I am. Carmel Valley is an excellent school district. University City has some of the better schools in San Diego Unified. It's a large district - so the neighborhood cluster is important since there's a wide performance gap within the district. Poway district is great, Scripps Ranch (also within San Diego unified), etc... all good schools. La Jolla itself has good schools - but again is part of the larger San Diego Unified district. Or, as I mentioned before, you can live anywhere in the San Diego Unified district and apply to have your kids attend the top rated San Diego High School International Studies magnet. (Which is what I'm doing, despite being in one of the better neighborhood clusters)

I have a great lifestyle in my La Jolla adjacent location - I take the dog for a daily walk on the La Jolla beaches - literally a 7 minute drive - but being on the east side of Mt. Soledad - much less morning fog/cloud cover. Some of my regulars I talk to on the beach are La Jolla locals who have the country club lifestyle (La Jolla Beach and Tennis club) if that's something you really want - but I choose to use public parks for those activities.

 

[2015maybetheyear]

You have many options and choices which is a blessing but makes choosing more difficult. As I wrote earlier I am in a similar situation facing similar decisions.

Some of the things I am thinking through as I try to choose include, in no particular order: weather, schools, cost of living/taxes, more urban vs more rural (and all that entails including healthcare, transportation, entertainment, access to outdoors, privacy, etc), proximity to family, etc. Often times for many cost of living and proximity to career are the key components but it sounds like OP and perhaps many of us on this board are able to consider a wider range of locations.

It would be helpful to hear from others (especially those with young children) what are the things they have prioritized and how they are thinking through or thought through the decision to relocate.

 

[StuckinCT]

Stuck; You mentioned Portland Me in your original post. Let me be the first to suggest that you further your investigation of the Portland suburbs as a possible relocation spot. DH and I relocated to the area in 1991 with our then 5 and 7 year olds. We relocated from a NJ suburb where the competitiveness factor was unbearable. All kids went to sleep away camp for the entire summer by the age of 8. DH commuted into Manhattan daily. His commute was 3.5 hours on a good day and there weren't that many good days. The play date and kid birthday party schedule required an electronic calendar. One day DH got home and informed me that he thought he was going to die in the Lincoln Tunnel. Fast forward 4 months and we were in a beautiful oceanfront community one town north of Portland. You would be the Jones in this town although it is affluent. A $900,000 home would most likely buy you an ocean view. The school system is ranked #242 on the U.S. NWR ranking. The next town north is ranked #238. There are three country clubs in our community and two ice arenas. The City of Portland is vibrant with a renowned "restaurant scene" with numerous James Beard award winners. Casco Bay is beautiful with many gorgeous islands, beaches, biking trails and green spaces. The arts scene is very lively. The mountains of New Hampshire and western Maine are only 1.5 hours away. Weekend hiking with our children was one of our favorite family activities. The local schools organize after school skiing on Wednesdays at a mountain only 45 minutes away. Trader Joe's and Whole Foods await those who don't want to be deprived of eclectic groceries. Boston is a reasonable 1.5 hour drive or two hour Amtrack train ride. I noticed that you have emphasized education so I would point out that the quality is superior here with AP/IB programs that will ensure your child's exposure to excellence. Our children were extremely well prepared for college and were accepted Early to their first choice schools(one an Ivy). The State College system is not good but Bowdoin, Bates and Colby are all within 30-45 minutes. This area should be on your short list.

Golden, many thanks for posting this information as my wife and I have considered Falmouth area for all of the reasons you listed above. I think the only downside to Portland ME area is the weather, it takes a looooong time for it to warm up that way. I am New Englander at heart and the good part is that the summers are beautiful up there unlike many areas that swelter. Some beautiful homes and the waterfront potential is extremely enticing. Great info thanks again.

 

[StuckinCT]

I think your worries about California is somewhat unfounded. All the cities you've listed are crazy expensive. There much nicer area and great school district. Much more laid back than La Jolla, Pacific Palisades, Laguna, Marin county. If you have relatives in California, it makes a lot more sense to move here.


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I have to say, it is amazing the feedback I am getting on Cali, my wife and I started with that idea but we chickened out, maybe we should reconsider.

 

[StuckinCT]

You have many options and choices which is a blessing but makes choosing more difficult. As I wrote earlier I am in a similar situation facing similar decisions.

Some of the things I am thinking through as I try to choose include, in no particular order: weather, schools, cost of living/taxes, more urban vs more rural (and all that entails including healthcare, transportation, entertainment, access to outdoors, privacy, etc), proximity to family, etc. Often times for many cost of living and proximity to career are the key components but it sounds like OP and perhaps many of us on this board are able to consider a wider range of locations.

It would be helpful to hear from others (especially those with young children) what are the things they have prioritized and how they are thinking through or thought through the decision to relocate.

maybeth, great points. The one point I have not emphasized enough is my wife's family who are in Eugene Oregon. The idea behind Portland area and Colorado is that you are only a car ride or short plane ride away. We also thought about Cali but the fear of top ticking the real estate market scared me away. We liked Ventura area, Westlake Village seemed the best fit. I have not looked into Northern California enough. Vermont and Maine are sort of the comfort zone choices, not far, familiar etc but I also would miss the seasons in a warm climate. I lived in Florida and it wore on me after three years. I like Oregon weather with less rain and gloom, but their summers are unreal. Colorado also has great weather, seasons but sun and a few mild days. Fort Collins has excellent swimming programs too. This is helping, appreciate it.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I have not looked into Northern California enough. Vermont and Maine are sort of the comfort zone choices, not far, familiar etc but I also would miss the seasons in a warm climate.

If you miss snow, in many places in Coastal California you can drive to the ski resorts in the mountains for a weekend or a day trip, well at least when there isn't a drought.

Here is a pleasant weather chart with one person's view of pleasant weather, if you want sunshine and mild temperatures year round:

kelly norton: The Pleasant Places to Live

 

[Travelwanted]

Can you clarify what parts of Cali you recommend, Rodi and the others?
We are in a similar situation.

Thanks!

 

[Fedup]

I like Laguna Niguel, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, but there are other new homes near by for South California, south of Laguna. For Northern California. Pleasanton, Danville, San Ramon. These are areas that I have researched before, nice decent not too pricey. But I'm sure it depends on the house size and yard, you could find house less than $ 1.7 million, most likely around $1.3 million for a nice, I last checked on redfin about 3000sqft+.
I don't know the San Diego area but I don't think they are as expensive as South Orange County and the Bay Area.


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[rodi]

I have familiarity with San Diego county. My personal preference is for coastal or semi coastal - (less than 10 miles inland) for weather reasons.

If schools are your primary concern - look at Poway Unified schools - parts of Rancho Penasquitos are in PUSD, despite being in the city of San Diego - and are further west of Poway proper. I live in University City - a neighborhood just east of La Jolla. You won't find newer houses though. Our house was built in the 60's. Carmel Valley - just north of here, west of Rancho PQ, and east of Del Mar has excellent schools and newer housing stock. Carlsbad has good schools and lots of newer houses east of I-5, and older houses in "Old Carsbad" west of I-5. Encinitas has a lot of variety and good schools.

If you are willing to go the magnet or "choice" route for schools you can get a (relatively) huge bang for your buck in Clairemont... Older houses - but people are tearing them down and building larger McMansions to take advantage of canyon and Ocean views. Clairemont schools kind of suck, though. San Diego unified offers the option to apply to other school clusters - and it's a lottery. I have friends here in UC with their kids in the La Jolla cluster. As mentioned, we have our boys at the international baccalaureate magnet schools. It's a money vs hassle trade off. It is definitely more work for me getting my kids to/from a school 10 miles away vs 1 mile away.

 

[2015maybetheyear]

I would agree with the CA recommendations for Bay Area, OC, and SD. There are plenty of nice communities where one can get a nice family home in a neighborhood with good schools for about $1m or so. La Jolla, Pacific Palisades, Laguna Beach are just about some of the most expensive towns in CA, the US, and in the world, short of prime neighborhoods in major global cities such as NYC, London, etc. Those communities also generally have a lot of the types of current or retired finance, CEO, real estate developers, inherited wealth that seem to relish keeping up with the Joneses and have the net worths to play that game.

I've been interested in San Diego as the area seems more laid back and less focused on career/money than LA, Bay Area, and the OC. Don't get me wrong, there are still more than enough 1%'ers and the like but on a relative basis compared to the other geographies I think there are relatively more people who sacrificed career/money trade-offs for family and quality of life. Still somewhat of a rat race compared to perhaps a small town but much less of a rat race than other big cities in CA. Yet San Diego still has plenty of highly educated people with fairly decent sized biotech private/public and tech/comm sectors.

So my theory is that SD cost of living is somewhat lower (albeit still expensive compared to most of the rest of the US) than LA, Bay Area especially and quality life is arguably better (depending on what you are looking for--if you are looking for the latest hot restaurants then you are better off in LA or Bay Area--if you are looking for family activities, especially outdoors, then I think SD might be better). With your net worth I think you will be the Joneses in SD as a few have put it but even in areas like Danville, etc in the Bay Area you may be doing well but still feeling like it's a fairly big pond. Public schools are also definitely better in SD than LA (where many go private) and a few are probably about as good as the best in the Bay Area--especially given your price point you can buy in the neighborhoods with the best schools in SD whereas some of the neighborhoods with great schools in the Bay Area (such as Palo Alto) would be unaffordable.

 

[hnzw_rui]

If schools are your primary concern - look at Poway Unified schools - parts of Rancho Penasquitos are in PUSD, despite being in the city of San Diego - and are further west of Poway proper. I live in University City - a neighborhood just east of La Jolla. You won't find newer houses though. Our house was built in the 60's. Carmel Valley - just north of here, west of Rancho PQ, and east of Del Mar has excellent schools and newer housing stock.

+1 if considering CA. I have grandparents who live in Rancho Penasquitos and it's a very nice area and the pace is pretty laid back compared to LA.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

My sister lives in Danville. They have a nice house worth, I don't really know, maybe 1.5mil. She made the decision to send her kids to private school. Both her boys went to college and one has a PhD in physics and is now doing a postdoc at Stanford, the younger one is doing a PhD at Rice University.

I stand by my earlier statement, I would send any kids to private school today. Even the best of the public schools just aren't what they used to be.

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[Golden sunsets]

Golden, many thanks for posting this information as my wife and I have considered Falmouth area for all of the reasons you listed above. I think the only downside to Portland ME area is the weather, it takes a looooong time for it to warm up that way. I am New Englander at heart and the good part is that the summers are beautiful up there unlike many areas that swelter. Some beautiful homes and the waterfront potential is extremely enticing. Great info thanks again.

Yep; It sure is nice here in Falmouth. Re the weather, I honestly don't think it is much colder than in CT. The winters are perhaps a couple of weeks longer but the summer weather is so beautiful that it makes up for it. We have lived in the Los Angeles area as well as NJ and one of the joys of the Portland area is the lack of traffic congestion and air pollution.

 

[pb4uski]

I like Laguna Niguel, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, but there are other new homes near by for South California, south of Laguna. For Northern California. Pleasanton, Danville, San Ramon. These are areas that I have researched before, nice decent not too pricey. But I'm sure it depends on the house size and yard, you could find house less than $ 1.7 million, most likely around $1.3 million for a nice, I last checked on redfin about 3000sqft+.
I don't know the San Diego area but I don't think they are as expensive as South Orange County and the Bay Area. ....

Only $1.3 million for 3,000 sf... I'm surprised that people are not beating the doors down to move there.