Maybe I'm an idiot?
Maybe I'm an idiot?
I have trouble with the inflation tab. CPI consumer price index, PPI producer price index, or 3, 4, 5, 6 inflation rate. I did play around with these numbers and adding 1% to inflation put me under 100%.
I have trouble with the inflation tab. CPI consumer price index, PPI producer price index, or 3, 4, 5, 6 inflation rate. I did play around with these numbers and adding 1% to inflation put me under 100%.
I... In reality this is simply a report on what would have happened in the past. 100% success in the past is no guarantee of success in the future. ....
... I think one is better off focusing on things like multiple sources of retirement income. I would rather have income from three sources with 90% past success than all my income from one source with 100% past success.
I haven't used FIRECalc for a while or any other financial calculators. When I was planning FIRE I would use everyone under the sun 3 times a day for a year. Lol
This thread got me interested enough to go punch in some numbers. I entered just a quarter of my portfolio (not net worth) of what I have now and got 100% using my same spending number and 30 years. If I did lose 75% of my holdings and things got bad I still could cut my expenses from how I live today.
I'm sure most here are in the same shoes and could still survive in loosing half to three quarters of portfolio. Having a plan when things go bad to is key.
I really, really would not "play around" with those numbers/settings. Stick with the historical analysis (default method).
The way I see it, the real value of FIRECalc and other historical calculators is that they look at history, and don't try to assume anything. Inflation, market returns, etc, are not completely independent.
-ERD50
You can get similar results by putting in your current portfolio value and ask it to investigate lowest portfolio value for 100%. It will show you how low you can go and still hit 100%.