Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Nice! Keep it up with your new strategy, and you will bypass nunnun sometime next week!

What makes me think that is unlikely?

-ERD50

I'm not counting on my current rate of earnings but it would be nice. I feel like I'm battling my own stock - the insurance company. In five years they've steadily been rising despite occasional payouts. If they stay flat this year I'm OK, so I think I'm OK but you never know.

 

[ERD50]

I'm not counting on my current rate of earnings but it would be nice. I feel like I'm battling my own stock - the insurance company. In five years they've steadily been rising despite occasional payouts. If they stay flat this year I'm OK, so I think I'm OK but you never know.

And maybe some day, the light bulb will come on, and you'll see that "you never will".

Or as Yogi Berra (perhaps not the first) said: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

The few players beating nunnun are doing something wild compared to the few players immediately behind him. If you want to beat something that's said to be "unbeatable" I think you should tweak the unbeatable, not do whatever drastic stuff the leaders are doing. I don't think they'll hold their position. They're probably better off stopping trading.

Good news then, I just bought four high conviction stocks and have held them since I started on May 30.

Just plain long bets, nothing wild there in my opinion. I did not use leverage, nor options. All of these companies are actually in my own real-life portfolio.

Yes, it could be luck, but I am objecting to the "drastic stuff" statement here.

 

[Boho]

I added a Total Transactions column. Also a reminder: nunnun has 2308 shares of VOO and 4120 shares of VTI, both bought on 3/30/2017.

 

[ERD50]

I added a Total Transactions column. Also a reminder: nunnun has 2308 shares of VOO and 4120 shares of VTI, both bought on 3/30/2017.

So while nunnun may be napping, it looks like #16 & $#17 are in a coma. Someone call 911!

edit/add: and those in a coma are still "Beating BoHo"!

-ERD50

 

[nun]

So while nunnun may be napping, it looks like #16 & $#17 are in a coma. Someone call 911!

edit/add: and those in a coma are still "Beating BoHo"!

-ERD50

Keep it down please, I'm trying to sleep here.

 

[Boho]

KNOW is an ETF that dropped for reasons that I don't understand but I just placed a market order for it. I wouldn't do it in real life but it seems low for no reason and I buy in that case. I have a hunch there is a reason for this one though. Anyone know what's going on with KNOW?

 

[ERD50]

Who's on first? -ERD50

 

[sengsational]

There was promising news at the end of October that didn't pan-out. So it's back to October's level.

I completely made that up based on looking at the price graph.

But more importantly, did you add that column offline, just editing HTML, or are you coding that somehow?

 

[Boho]

But more importantly, did you add that column offline, just editing HTML, or are you coding that somehow?

In MS paint. I copied and pasted a blank vertical section of the table to extend it and used the "insert text into this picture" tool.

 

[Boho]

Is the definition of "trader" clear enough that we could identify the traders as opposed to the index investors and others?

 

[exnavynuke]

Is the definition of "trader" clear enough that we could identify the traders as opposed to the index investors and others?

>4 roundtrip trades in a 30 day period...

 

[ERD50]

Is the definition of "trader" clear enough that we could identify the traders as opposed to the index investors and others?

What do you mean by "identify"? Would this be a tag or something, that would show up in the standings?

We could ask people to self-identify, as nun(nunnun) and several others have done.

But those aren't the only categories. I think a few have taken very narrow holdings, but not traded. It would be misleading to lump them with the broad-index based non-traders.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

What do you mean by "identify"? Would this be a tag or something, that would show up in the standings?

Maybe. It would be so someone could say "Boho is the worst trader" or "Boho is the best trader" or whatever.

I'm considering selecting a number of transactions that would be the minimum required to be considered a trader for the purpose of this contest. It would increase as time goes on. Then I'd check those qualifiers' transactions for the last quarter and they'd have to meet a quarterly minimum, then I'd check the number of buys and sells which would have to meet some minimum. Checking roundtrip trades is harder so I don't think I'll do that. Something like that.

 

[braumeister]

Is it an investing game or a trading game?
The two are mutually exclusive in my mind.

 

[Boho]

Is it an investing game or a trading game?
The two are mutually exclusive in my mind.

I thought it was a make money game but you could make it whatever you want as long as I can buy and sell as I please. I intend to take breaks and I don't know how long they'll last. But I stopped myself from selling everything and buying what nunnun has when I was number 1 because that wouldn't prove anything.

 

[easysurfer]

Is it an investing game or a trading game?
The two are mutually exclusive in my mind.

I compare the contest to a marathon. Some are in it to win it. Others to finish without getting embarrassed. The strategy to use is whichever works best for the contestants to cross the finish line.

 

[pb4uski]

.... It would be so someone could say... "Boho is the best trader" ...

Don't get your hopes up.

 

[ERD50]

I thought it was a make money game but you could make it whatever you want as long as I can buy and sell as I please. I intend to take breaks and I don't know how long they'll last. But I stopped myself from selling everything and buying what nunnun has when I was number 1 because that wouldn't prove anything.

As I've said, I don't think this contest can "prove" anything. It seems to be illustrating a few things that are pretty much already borne out by the studies.

Given that, I think that finding yourself in #1, and then buying the index, or cash might be the clearest way to end up #1. I assume that is the goal of any contest, regardless the strategy, as long as the rules are followed.

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

I don't think a pure indexer will end up #1. But can say with great confidence that pure indexer won't be at the bottom .

 

[easysurfer]

As I've said, I don't think this contest can "prove" anything. It seems to be illustrating a few things that are pretty much already borne out by the studies.

....

-ERD50

Why do students have experiments in science labs? To repeat experiments as an illustrative purpose and to learn.

Hopefully, after the contest over, this will illustrate that not so easy to stock pick and beat just following an indexing strategy. Of course, skeptics may remain skeptics...at least in public .

 

[jazz4cash]

KNOW is an ETF that dropped for reasons that I don't understand but I just placed a market order for it. I wouldn't do it in real life but it seems low for no reason and I buy in that case. I have a hunch there is a reason for this one though. Anyone know what's going on with KNOW?

Here you are.
I KNOW Where I Am Not Putting My Money $KNOW
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4092511

If anyone is doesn't want to bother with this link, KNOW is an insider sentiment ETF (nuff said?)
I've been trying to stay out of the discussion (it's been tough) but need to ask:
Do the account balances include trading expenses?

 

[ERD50]

Why do students have experiments in science labs? To repeat experiments as an illustrative purpose and to learn.

Hopefully, after the contest over, this will illustrate that not so easy to stock pick and beat just following an indexing strategy. Of course, skeptics may remain skeptics...at least in public .

Agreed - to illustrate, not to prove. -ERD50

 

[Boho]

Here you are.
I KNOW Where I Am Not Putting My Money $KNOW
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4092511

If anyone is doesn't want to bother with this link, KNOW is an insider sentiment ETF (nuff said?)
I've been trying to stay out of the discussion (it's been tough) but need to ask:
Do the account balances include trading expenses?

You had me take a look and I'm up .2% with KNOW. I was going to wait for another .07 cents but I'll change my order to a sell.

...Just remembered that I've been selling KNOW in batches and I don't have much left. Might as well not change anything.

 

[jazz4cash]

You had me take a look and I'm up .2% with KNOW. I was going to wait for another .07 cents but I'll change my order to a sell.

...Just remembered that I've been selling KNOW in batches and I don't have much left. Might as well not change anything.

So does your contest balance include trading costs?