Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[braumeister]

And yet, Boho has had below average results! How's he do it?

Volume!

 

[Boho]

December 31, 2017:

7. nunnun: $1,147,362.15
…
21. BohoII: $993,718.01

Now: BohoII: $1,008,454.35. nunnun: $1,150,988.44

I gained around $15,000 and nunnun gained around $4,000 in approximately the past 12 months.

 

[SecondCor521]

December 31, 2017:

Now: BohoII: $1,008,454.35. nunnun: $1,150,988.44

I gained around $15,000 and nunnun gained around $4,000 in approximately the past 12 months.

To your credit, I think you've done better than nunnun in the past few weeks.

However, you might be cherrypicking dates and you might be inaccurately doing so.

If you wanted a year long period starting December 31, 2017, you could have referred to my post from 1/1/19 on this thread:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
5. nunnun	5	$1,093,663.16	$9,675.40	9.37%
31. BohoII	30	$895,396.12	$13,248.00	-10.46%

Which shows quite a different result from the one you quoted for the one year and 18 day period (12/31/17 - 1/17/19).

Also, you say "now" where I quote you above. I just checked the Investopedia site now (two hours later), and get the following values for you:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
7. nunnun	7	$1,142,407.52	$2,788.84	14.24%
30. BohoII	29	$983,903.85	$647.80	-1.61%

The market was closed by the time of your post, so I'm not sure why the discrepancy. Either the industrial mutual fund you own really dropped today - well, actually it did, but not enough to account for the difference - or perhaps you were looking at old data or someone else's results.

Again, as far as I'm concerned, all of this is just silly fun. The only metric that matters in my opinion is the rankings at the end of the contest relative to you.

 

[Boho]

I'm not sure why the discrepancy.

The values I quoted will show in the rankings table in the morning. I used the up to date numbers from my and nunnun's individual player pages.

 

[Boho]

This is where my numbers came from:

 

[SecondCor521]

The values I quoted will show in the rankings table in the morning. I used the up to date numbers from my and nunnun's individual player pages.

Right, I had forgotten about that. I was looking at the overall rankings page, not the individual investor pages. My mistake.

 

[Boho]

I'm selling everything. Things are getting too high too fast and there was a downward "correction" after hours so I'm thinking there's a small sell off coming. Except I couldn't sell much of FIDU because of some volume issue.

...I'm glad I started early selling FIDU. It's gonna take a while.

 

[jazz4cash]

I'm selling everything. Things are getting too high too fast and there was a downward "correction" after hours so I'm thinking there's a small sell off coming. Except I couldn't sell much of FIDU I because of some volume issue.

...I'm glad I started early selling FIDU. It's gonna take a while.

Wow! You re probably correct we are due for a reset but how will you know it’s time to go back in?

 

[ERD50]

Wow! You re probably correct we are due for a reset but how will you know it’s time to go back in?

He will use the same superior skills that have him lagging someone who has done absolutely nothing but BUY&HOLD the market!

Rock, Paper, Scissors anyone?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Wow! You re probably correct we are due for a reset but how will you know it’s time to go back in?

I want to go back in quickly. I'll probably buy at least what nunnun has if there's a little dip. If it keeps going up on Monday then I don't know, maybe in that case I'll rebuild a portfolio by stock picking. But I still have $112,825.32 of FIDU because I couldn't sell it. I think I placed like 8 sell orders and still couldn't dump it all today.

 

[jazz4cash]

I want to go back in quickly. I'll probably buy at least what nunnun has if there's a little dip. If it keeps going up on Monday then I don't know, maybe in that case I'll rebuild a portfolio by stock picking. But I still have $112,825.32 of FIDU because I couldn't sell it. I think I placed like 8 sell orders and still couldn't dump it all today.

Are you placing market orders or limit orders?

 

[Boho]

Are you placing market orders or limit orders?

For selling FIDU, mostly market orders for the maximum shares that the sell page says I can sell. For buying it varies.

Here's today's activity:

 

[ransil]

I want to go back in quickly. I'll probably buy at least what nunnun has if there's a little dip. If it keeps going up on Monday then I don't know, maybe in that case I'll rebuild a portfolio by stock picking. But I still have $112,825.32 of FIDU because I couldn't sell it. I think I placed like 8 sell orders and still couldn't dump it all today.

I had issues selling some low volumn stocks, was within the rules and the trades still failed. I have one that changed its name 3 months ago and cant do anything with it.

 

[Boho]

In a post dated 12/14/2018, Boho wrote:

If I'm not in the middle again within a month or two, I'd be surprised. I should be in the top half within 3 months.

I'm now in the top half.

 

[ERD50]

In a post dated 12/14/2018, Boho wrote:

I'm now in the top half.

Well, looks like a t least 9 of players are not playing. If you are ahead of them, it's not saying much:

14. luckyclub19 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
15. garyweis15 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
16. longshot345kv17 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
17. Gayl11 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
18. HowUnfortunate16 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
19. monitorLizzy13 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
20. dixonge14 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
21. secondcor52118 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%
22. MizRosie12 $1,000,000.00$0.000.00%

'Congrats' on your mediocrity, and demonstrating that all your analysis, trading, effort, RPS status, and tracking has under-performed a near-zero-effort buy and hold, so far.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I almost shorted them but they're a little too low.

Look at their awning, with those support members and brackets. It doesn't even look finished.

Recently I noticed the same construction at a Burger King in a different city. I also noticed that Burger King stopped showing the local news channel and started airing Burger King TV. Previously I'd noticed McDonalds showing McDonalds TV.

Would it be crazy for McDonalds and Burger King to merge?

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by Boho
I almost shorted them but they're a little too low.

Look at their awning, with those support members and brackets. It doesn't even look finished.

Recently I noticed the same construction at a Burger King in a different city. I also noticed that Burger King stopped showing the local news channel and started airing Burger King TV. Previously I'd noticed McDonalds showing McDonalds TV.

Would it be crazy for McDonalds and Burger King to merge?

You almost shorted MCD back on 03-27-2018!!!? Geez, they are up over 17% since then, SPY up only 4% in that time.

set the bar for 205 (trading) days:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,mcd

If you had done the exact opposite, you may have caught up to nunnun by now

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

If you had done the exact opposite, you may have caught up to nunnun by now

I probably would have done some research first (maybe I did). The April 2018 article McDonald's shares soar as menu price increases fuel earnings beat says:

International sales were strong, particularly in the U.K. and Germany. Many of these locations already have kiosks, mobile ordering and delivery, initiatives that McDonald's is rolling out in the U.S., and are performing well...
It's been more than a year since the company's executives touted several big changes...innovating its menu, renovating its stores, offering mobile and kiosk ordering and partnering with UberEats to test delivery.

Somewhere, probably in this thread, someone asked me, something like, whether I think a company that increases prices would make more or less money (or if the stock price would go up or down). I answered that if they decide to change something then they have reason to believe it will be an improvement and they'll probably do better. So, if I had done research, I wouldn't have shorted McDonalds.

 

[Boho]

I answered that if they decide to change something then they have reason to believe it will be an improvement and they'll probably do better. So, if I had done research, I wouldn't have shorted McDonalds.

The exception would be a case where I was able to tell that it's a bad change like it seemed to be with the kiosks based on my experience. But the other changes would have scared me away from shorting.

 

[Boho]

I think this is how the experimental Marketwatch contest should be configured. I'll wait at least a day before I start it to see if there are any objections. It will just be a test and the actual next contest can be configured differently if we find a feature doesn't work well or for whatever reason.

The default is no limit orders but I chose to allow them. That's something we may want to pay special attention to. Maybe Marketwatch doesn't check prices very often and allowing limit orders could mislead players into thinking it works reasonably well when it actually doesn't.

Players can join after start: yes
Player portfolios: public
Public or private game: public
Contest length: one year (the maximum allowed)
Symbol restrictions: none
Starting balance: $1,000,000 (this is over the default of $100,000 because people here think $1,000,000 is more realistic for some reason)
Commission: $5 (under the default of $10)
Credit interest rate: 3%
Debt interest rate for leverage: 6%
Min. price limit: $2
Max price limit: $500,000
Trading volume limit: 1%
Short selling: yes
Margin: yes
Limit orders: yes (the default is no)
Stop loss: no
Partial shares: no

 

[natetheb]

Starting balance: $1,000,000 (this is over the default of $100,000 because people here think $1,000,000 is more realistic for some reason)

I don't. I think a starting balance between $100,000-$500,000 is more reasonable.

 

[sengsational]

I think no margin would make it "cleaner" when it comes to how well you picked stocks. Two guys that picked "equally right" could be far apart in the ranking if one was leveraged to the hilt.


Games like this are not very realistic because the top (and bottom) of the ranking is populated with those that were "swinging for the fences". No margin would reduce that effect. Not completely, because one can buy stuff that's pre-leveraged, but that will be obvious to all.

 

[Boho]

I'll reduce the starting balance. I'll consider eliminating margin. It's not something you automatically get from a brokerage and it recently helped me a lot in the contest. Some people will probably see me as "swinging for the fences" with unrealistic trading. With no margin we'd be able to see whether I need that.

 

[Boho]

You can now register at Marketwatch and join the test contest at https://www.marketwatch.com/game/beat-boho-beta

The starting balance is the default of $100,000 which should cause fewer problems with the default 1% volume limit which is 10 times lower than in the Investopedia contest. If people want a higher starting balance then I'd like comments on whether the volume limit should be increased.

I'm allowing margin so those who are interested could see how well it works. I'm leaning against it for the actual contest but at least we could make a more informed decision at that time by having it enabled for the test. Maybe it's buggy somehow, which should make not having it an easier decision.

• Players can join after start: yes
• Player portfolios: public
• Public or private game: public
• Contest length: one year (the maximum allowed)
• Symbol restrictions: none
• Starting balance: $100,000
• Commission: $5 (under the default of $10)
• Credit interest rate: 3%
• Debt interest rate for leverage: 6%
• Min. price limit: $2
• Max price limit: $500,000
• Trading volume limit: 1%
• Short selling: yes
• Margin: yes
• Limit orders: yes (the default is no)
• Stop loss: no
• Partial shares: no

 

[Boho]

You can now register at Marketwatch and join the test contest at https://www.marketwatch.com/game/beat-boho-beta

There are currently two other players in the test contest. Can any of you trade anything today? I can't buy or sell and I tried two browsers.