mickeyd
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
The baby boomers stretch over 20 years from 1946-1964
18 years (generation), but who's counting.
The baby boomers stretch over 20 years from 1946-1964
lsbcal said:Someone once said "All generalizations are false including this one". About sums up my input on where the market is headed.
Les
I am assuming that I won't be able to withdraw for the first ten years after I retire, just to be safer. I'll be interested in reading responses to your questions. I plan to have enough in money market, CD's, bonds, and perhaps a small fixed immediate annuity to get through such a scenario on a shoestring without withdrawing, if it "only" lasts 10 years.Slarty said:I am not worried about a market correction for a lot of the reasons already mentioned here, especially the high liquidity, and dropping P/E's which means fundamentals are aligned with what's happening on the technicals. Also, a correction is just an opportunity to buy more than usual, because the market will come back in relatively (less than 2 years) short order.
My concern is more about a bad 10 year run that could start around 2010 or 2011 where equities don't gain anything for a 10 year period. The baby boomers are spending at their peak years and even if they shift a lot more money into equities to try to catch up, the fundamentals will get worse since that money won't be going into the earnings of companies. The data at www.hsdent.com is something I find interesting and explains more details about why I'm worried about 2010 to 2020. I'm just wondering if there's a strategy out there if we enter such a period? Is the standard diversification and allocations still the only way to go in such an environment? ..or is there something more to do in such a situation?
Going 10 years without any returns on my equities, like the 1970's, would be really painful for any FIRE person.
I guess "all of the above" might be my answer. I am an early retiree, but not as early as most here (should be age 61.5 to 62). My retirement will be about 24% pension, 34% social security, and 42% investment income. I plan to put some money in laddered CDs or money market to replace investment income for a ten year period, but not up to the full 42%. The amount will be somewhere between that and the amount needed for barebones survival. If the market does well and social security falters, I could use it to replace some of that instead. As the first 10 years pass, if all is going well and the market is good, I can re-evaluate whether or not I can gradually move this money into other, more lucrative funds.Slarty said:Want2retire, Can you share your plan for how you won't need to withdraw from equities for 10 years if necessary? Is it that you have a pension you can fall back on, or is it that you have saved an extra buffer to get through such an event, or something else? If you were planning on such a buffer for something like $80k/yr income then you'd be looking at a $800k safety buffer, which is a lot.
Either way, I like your thinking. As we know from all the monte carlo and historical simulations, the failure modes come from the first critical 5 or so years after retirement. If we had a growth metric that would indicate if we are on a successful trajectory during those first critical years after retirement, then there would be time to go back to work to correct the trajectory. Going back to work a few years may be a better option than saving the extra $400k to $800k that might be needed to ensure you don't have to go back to work. If I had the time, then I bet I could work out a leading indicator that would further mitigate the risk of running out of money, even at slightly higher withdrawal rates.
Want2retire said:So, I'd rather sacrifice a little income to get by those crucial first ten years successfully.
HaHa said:I have a question about "those crucial first ten years". I have never understood the concept. Say I retired 20 years ago, and you are retiring today, that we are both 62 and both have $1.5MM. How does the universe know that the next ten years are crucial for you, but that I am already in phat city?
Ha
The difference would be that someone retired 20 years would likely have a much different effective %SWR than the person just starting out, due to the growth (or shrinkage?) of the portfolio over that time period. In most cases, the effective SWR would be dropping because the portfolio would be growing faster than the inflation adjusted withdrawals. But we also know the opposite can occur, causing the %SWR to get alarmingly high at times.HaHa said:I have a question about "those crucial first ten years". I have never understood the concept. Say I retired 20 years ago, and you are retiring today, that we are both 62 and both have $1.5MM. How does the universe know that the next ten years are crucial for you, but that I am already in phat city?
Ha