A question no sane person is asking
Okay, here's another question for the quantitatively inclined: For the average Toyota owner, is it more dangerous to drive to the dealer and get this fixed or to continue to drive the car? A back-of-the-envelope analysis follows.
Factors:
- US automobile death rate in 2006: 1.41 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (Source:
NHTSA vehicle crash stats for 2006)
- Assumed: The average driver has to drive 30 miles (total round trip) from his home to the dealer for this repair (Source--personal estimate)
- Risk of a fatal car wreck for the average driver taking this drive: 1: 4.23E-7
- The risk per mile from leaving the pedals unmodified is uncertain, but several sources (including
Reuters) give the total number of deaths due to "sudden acceleration" as 19. This is up from an earlier estimate of 5. This includes fatalities due to
both the accelerator pedal problem
and the floor mat problem. A WAG on the number of vehicle-miles driven by all affected vehicles: let's estimate their average years on the road as 2.5 (see the recall list: One model was fitted with the suspect accelerator pedal in 2005, but most were fitted starting much later). The average car in the US is driven
about 11,000 miles/yr . So, these affected vehicles were driven a total of about 6.325 x10E10 miles. If 19 people died due to the stuck accelerators, that's a rate of 3.0xE-10 deaths per mile (that's 1/1400th of the normal vehicle death rate from all causes per mile, and represents the additional risk you'd take by not getting this problem fixed. Miniscule).
- The average length of time new owners keep a car appears to be about 6 years (
Source). If these owners, on average, have driven their cars for 2.5 years, then on average they'd be expected to have them for an average of 3.5 additional years. The risk of death due to the pedal defect during this time is 3.5 (years) x 11000 (avg miles per year) x 3.0E-10 (death rate per mile) = 1.16E-5.
So, based on the very uncertain estimates above, if you are average, t
he risk of death from the pedal problem is about is about 27 times greater than the risk of being killed in a vehicle crash while going to have the problem fixed.
Note: the calculations above disregard the risk of death to other vehicle occupants in all cases, and the risk of death to subsequent owners of unmodified vehicles. But, hey, they could drive the cart to the dealer and get the fix done themselves.
Now, if we figure that an hour spent in the dealer's waiting room is an hour of human life that has been wasted, and given the very low risk of death from runaway vehicles, I'll bet we'd find that getting this fixed results in a net
loss of human life-hours compared to doing nothing--but that's a fun extra-credit calculation for another day.