Meadbh
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2006
- Messages
- 11,401
From Part 3: After detailing the very wide variety of infrequent but cataclysmic social events that rock human societies, Bernstein writes:But, in a nuthell: Yes, I think it's possible a black swan bigger and badder than any we've seen in the US in the last 100 years might pay us a visit. But, that's not what I'm most concerned about. Instead, I'm concerned that the good fairy has been sitting on our shoulder for the last 60 years, and that the wonderful average returns we've experienced during that time are now the base set of the data in FIRECalc and other models (Monte Carlo or not). If the good fairy has left us (and there are many reasons to believe she has), then we'll be getting about 2-4%% real total return on our portfolios for a long time, and it won't take a terrific black swan to wipe out retirees who need 6-8% real total return just to stay even.
I worry about the same thing. Will history look back at the 20th century as the golden age of equities?