The Toilet Paper Shortage is Not Due to Hoarding After All!

[Ian S]

Here's a fascinating story on why the shortage of toilet paper continues even after any effects of hoarding have diminished. Basically, there are two separate distribution channels for toilet paper: one retail and one commercial. And, importantly, the products can't be easily substituted. With businesses, schools, restaurants and other public buildings closed, the demand for the commercial stuff (thin and supplied on palettes) has dried up. Meanwhile because so many folks are at home, much more retail T.P. is being used there and is resulting in the ongoing shortage.
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

 

[Ready]

Yes, this has been covered in a few other threads. But while this explains away some of the hoarding, it’s not the entire story. Even if people are adding an additional 8-10 hours per day in their home that previously was in work or school it doesn’t explain the substantial increase in volumes being sold. There is still fear of running out.

And it doesn’t explain the hoarding or everything else, like paper towels, disinfectants, hand sanitizer, eggs, yeast, and on and on. People are still stocking up in fear that they will be in a complete lock down mode and unable to go to a grocery store so they are buying substantial quantities of items in anticipation of a complete lock down.

 

[USGrant1962]

Yes, this has been covered in a few other threads. But while this explains away some of the hoarding, it’s not the entire story. Even if people are adding an additional 8-10 hours per day in their home that previously was in work or school it doesn’t explain the substantial increase in volumes being sold. There is still fear of running out.

And it doesn’t explain the hoarding or everything else, like paper towels, disinfectants, hand sanitizer, eggs, yeast, and on and on. People are still stocking up in fear that they will be in a complete lock down mode and unable to go to a grocery store so they are buying substantial quantities of items in anticipation of a complete lock down.

I think that is partially true. But also, at least in our case, the ONE time we (actually DW) went to Costco in the last month she bought a month worth of stuff instead of two weeks.

Both that and actual panic buying should subside if we really see a flattening of "the curve" in the next couple of weeks. OTOH, I see news reports where local/state government is suggesting police actions for not wearing masks, and tickets for watching sunsets in your car - so things could go the other way quickly.

 

[NW-Bound]

From the linked article:

Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

That increase of 40% of TP usage at home is huge, and cannot be accommodated overnight. And it is true that TP for public use is cheaper quality and in larger rolls not suitable for home use, as pointed out in the article.

And I wonder if anyone has the stats for food delivered to restaurants compared to the amount delivered to supermarkets. People eat out a lot in big cities. When they are locked down at home and start to bake their own bread, it's no wonder that yeast becomes rare.

Food delivered to institutions comes in huge packages and it takes time to repackage and redirect it to the supermarkets for retail sales. I had been to some outlets that sold to restaurants but also allowed the public to go in to buy. Everything was huge, such as 50-lb bags of flour and 5-gal pails of oil. Condiments such as mustard and ketchup did not come in anything smaller than 1 gallon.

 

[USGrant1962]

From the linked article:



That increase of 40% of TP usage at home is huge, and cannot be accommodated overnight. And it is true that TP for public use is cheaper quality and in larger rolls not suitable for home use, as pointed out in the article.

....

After someone here mentioned commercial/industrial TP I actually looked on Staples website. They carry the mongo rolls for commercial dispensers - all sold out too.

 

[FlaGator]

from my shopping recently in the FL Panhandle, I'd say the hoarding continues. We were hammered in Mid-March by the start of spring break (lasts about 4 weeks here) and the panic starting the same weekend. Our few stores were cleaned out, and there were "stories" of vacationers stocking up while on vacation out of fear of not being able to once they got home to Al/TN/TX, etc.

Has taken a couple of weeks for that to subside and the local hoarders to stock up. Still see 25-30 people lined up at store opening, and the first place they go is paper products. Getting closer to normal now, hope another week-ish gets us back to normal.

FYI-I was not affected by the panic buying. Having lived in SoFla during the bad hurricane years of 2004-5, I always have 30+ days of consumables on hand. Also a NRA life member for anyone who is tempted....;

 

[target2019]

Multiple factors, I'm sure, are contributing to the shortage: panic and hoarding, business channel over-stuffed, more residential use as people isolate.

If you can find a wholesale paper products company locally, they may have tons ready in their warehouse. And also very interested in keeping delivery drivers busy, etc.

 

[JoeWras]

Am I the only one who likes commercial TP? I'd gladly buy a bundle of 36 or so if there was a retail source.

The old Scott brand used to be close. Very firm. But they have softened up recently.

 

[JoeWras]

Search on Staples, which includes all kinds of commercial TP. OUT, OUT, OUT.

Perhaps Staples pipeline can't handle the retail side of distribution. Surely, they shouldn't be having a failure from their suppliers, right?

 

[audreyh1]

I saw some commercial TP online at Costco.com.

 

[ncbill]

But do they also have the ginormous dispensers required?

Make sure you hit a stud if installing the above!

 

[JoeWras]

But do they also have the ginormous dispensers required?

Make sure you hit a stud if installing the above!

I was just going to pound a 30d spike in the wall -- at the stud of course! -- and place the roll on the spike. Drywall compound can fix the sins later.

 

[easysurfer]

Oh, there is hoarding. Believe me, there is hoarding ...

On a recent Friday afternoon in western Iowa, a man was waiting in line to buy toilet paper at a local Dollar General store when another customer started giving the man grief about it, according to local police.

At issue was the amount of toilet paper being purchased. After feeling threatened by the other customer's aggressive behavior, the toilet paper buyer displayed a gun in self-defense.

“It escalated almost to the point of a physical confrontation,” Atlantic Iowa police Lt. Devin Hogue told USA TODAY.
In the end, neither person was injured, but the initial aggressor was charged this week with disorderly conduct, adding to the recent police blotter over bath tissue. In Florida last month, sheriff’s deputies arrested a man for allegedly stealing 66 toilet paper rolls from a Marriott hotel. In California last week, Beverly Hills cops found 192 rolls of toilet paper in a stolen SUV.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ere-has-all-the-toilet-paper-gone/2964143001/

 

[jollystomper]

Oh, there is hoarding. Believe me, there is hoarding ...

True. If there was not hoarding, you would not see TP being sold on eBay at extravagant prices.

 

[JoeWras]

I think the fact you can't get the commercial stuff (without gouging) also indicates hoarding.

Hoarding is real.

 

[Ian S]

Many commenters seem to be missing one key point in the problem: prior to the crisis, because TP usage is pretty constant and the product itself low value but occupies significant space, retail production was finely tuned to demand and there was little if any excess capacity nor much stored supply. Even a relatively small imbalance in supply vs demand would wreak havoc. Furthermore, there is no incentive to add more production capacity that might be idled before it ever even came online. Sure there was some initial hoarding as folks saw supplies run out in stores. But we've had over a month of the shelves being bare so the retail to commercial imbalance sounds much more likely as the current culprit to me.

 

[easysurfer]

Many commenters seem to be missing one key point in the problem: prior to the crisis, because TP usage is pretty constant and the product itself low value but occupies significant space, retail production was finely tuned to demand and there was little if any excess capacity nor much stored supply. Even a relatively small imbalance in supply vs demand would wreak havoc. Furthermore, there is no incentive to add more production capacity that might be idled before it ever even came online. Sure there was some initial hoarding as folks saw supplies run out in stores. But we've had over a month of the shelves being bare so the retail to commercial imbalance sounds much more likely as the current culprit to me.

I think the both hoarding and the population staying at home both play a part. I know that before retiring, the need to stock up was a lot less than after retiring. While still on the job, that cost was mostly on the company's expense .

If my memory is correct, I believe toilet paper started disappearing off the store shelves before most of the shelter in place orders were given.

 

[dd564]

If the increase use of toilet paper at home would have been the reason for driving up demand, we wouldn't have seen store shelves empty until after several days minimum.

It's not like a very large percentage of households manage their toilet paper on a daily inventory where a 40% increase would cause so many households to have to suddenly buy up the existing supply just to cover their next few days.

It's hoarding pure and simple.

Much of the commercial toilet paper is the same size rolls.

 

[RobbieB]

Oh yeah, hoarding big time. Should be a special punishment too.

Like being being tied to a stake and pelted with feces by his itchy-butt neighbors.

 

[jollystomper]

Oh yeah, hoarding big time. Should be a special punishment too.

Like being being tied to a stake and pelted with feces by his itchy-butt neighbors.

I am glad I read that AFTER I finished drinking my soda. Or else you would have owed me a new keyboard.

 

[audreyh1]

Oh there were definitely people hoarding and rushing out to buy some because they heard TP was flying off the shelves, but I agree that it didn't take much to reduce the supply considering that people were advice to stock up on household items for a couple of weeks at least. But TP was one of the first things flying off the shelves along with water and Clorox wipes, so there were definitely people rushing out to buy those items.

 

[FreeBear]

Line of 30 people at Costco (suburban Tucson AZ), inside, just for TP. Seemed like they were waiting for the shipment. Felt bad for them. Costco did have PT and FT, no lines, no waiting.

Glad we put in a bidet and switched to jumbo commercial rolls 9 inch diameter, complete with a commercial dispenser, a few weeks ago. Overall, we were a little late to the party on this as we’ve had to restock our new home. We’re in much better shape now.

Buddy who ownes a restaurant in the upper Midwest says his commercial suppliers have everything in stock at normal prices, even chicken breast and tp. Restaurant supply houses are down 60-80% due to the loss of dine in. So plenty of stock in commercial channels in his big city.

 

[Amethyst]

TP is gradually reappearing in stores here (southern Fl east coast), albeit rationed (as it should be).

I don't understand why disinfectant cleaners and rubbing alcohol remain unobtainable. Even taking into account increased cleaning and disinfecting going on, there's a limit to how often people can clean and wipe down their stuff! Continued hoarding is the only conceivable explanation.

 

[Amethyst]

The very long Old People line waiting outside at BJs was actually directed to the TP aisle first. Single file, follow the leader (who wore an official-looking vest). The line looked to be at least 60% men.

You could break formation and shop for something else if you wanted, but then you'd get no TP. It was going so fast, even at one pack per person, that I wondered if there'd be any left by the end of Old People hour.

Chicken breasts were in good supply. Men with no masks on were hunched over them, scanning each package as if they expected there to be a signficant difference, which there isn't (well, a few cents depending on package weight). I held my breath, reached down between them and grabbed a package at random.

There were no beans, only the expensive Thai Jasmine rice (which is what I wanted), no canned vegetables except for tomatoes. Plenty of those. (Why?)

Ground beef, dairy, eggs, and bread seemed plentiful.

Line of 30 people at Costco, inside, just for TP. Seemed like they were waiting for the shipment. Felt bad for them. Costco did have PT and FT, no lines, no waiting.

.

 

[Mdlerth]

Your butt must be at least this foul to join the mob

Oh yeah, hoarding big time. Should be a special punishment too.

Like being being tied to a stake and pelted with feces by his itchy-butt neighbors.

Would neighbors who own bidets still be allowed to participate in flinging poop?