Theory now is - Stock Market will skyrocket further because of the Ukraine-Russia War

[cyber888]

Yesterday Feb. 24 (Thursday), I saw the most incredible recovery with the Dow starting at -900 and Nasdaq -450 pre-market, and the Dow end up closing at +92 and Nasdaq end up closing +436. So, the Dow recovered almost 1,000 points and Nasdaq recovered almost 900 points in a few hours. Institutions were buying on the dip.

Today (Feb.25), we see the Dow up another +835 points and Nasdaq up +221. Again, institutions were buying.

The sentiment is that the Fed will slow down the interest rate hikes, and let inflation continue due to the war. I still think they will raise rate by 0.25 in March, but they are not going to speed up raising rates after that, and they will blame inflation on higher oil prices on the war, etc.

The SEC and DOJ also continues to look into Short Selling. Not sure if the US government will scrutinize Short Selling from Putin and Russia as retaliation, in addition to cyberattacks. Russia has frozen short selling, so I guess the Russian mafia can't short the US market .

At any rate, I think the market will recover from the Jan-Feb doldrums.

 

[aja8888]

At any rate, I think the market will recover from the Jan-Feb doldrums.

Well, thanks for figuring all this out! But to be sure, how about lobbing in a call to J. Powell and get his concurrence on the interest rate hike strategy?

 

[GenXguy]

Yesterday Feb. 24 (Thursday), I saw the most incredible recovery with the Dow starting at -900 and Nasdaq -450 pre-market, and the Dow end up closing at +92 and Nasdaq end up closing +436. So, the Dow recovered almost 1,000 points and Nasdaq recovered almost 900 points in a few hours. Institutions were buying on the dip.

Today (Feb.25), we see the Dow up another +835 points and Nasdaq up +221. Again, institutions were buying.

The sentiment is that the Fed will slow down the interest rate hikes, and let inflation continue due to the war. I still think they will raise rate by 0.25 in March, but they are not going to speed up raising rates after that, and they will blame inflation on higher oil prices on the war, etc.

The SEC and DOJ also continues to look into Short Selling. Not sure if the US government will scrutinize Short Selling from Putin and Russia as retaliation, in addition to cyberattacks. Russia has frozen short selling, so I guess the Russian mafia can't short the US market.

At any rate, I think the market will recover from the Jan-Feb doldrums.

Mehhh... The S&P 500 is still down 9% from the high, and the Russell 2K is down 17%. Inflation is expected to be even worse with the war, so I expect to FED to step up those interest rate increase. I expect to see much more on the downside due to way overvalued stocks, the war in Ukraine, gas prices, general high inflation, the FED taking the foot off the gas, and increasing interest rates. Stand by and watch the show.

 

[Helen]

I don't know, I feel like the economic divide is too great in this country to have a healthy economy. There are so many people barely getting by. There was so much money being pumped into the economy that now has to be pulled out of it. And the rate of increase in both the housing market and stock market is unsustainable, I think we are going to see a gigantic bubble pop before long.

This is good news though because my predictions never come true. No matter what, we are living in interesting times so there's that.

 

[audreyh1]

The markets have been disconnected from the economy for a long, long time.

 

[njhowie]

The sentiment is that the Fed will slow down the interest rate hikes,...

They can't slow down something that they have not even started yet.

Only days ago we had one bank calling for 7 rate hikes this year. We heard Fed chiefs calling for a 1/2 point hike in March. And so on. That isn't going to turn on a dime.

Lots will depend on the inflation numbers being released March 10. At this time, there's no particular reason to believe that inflation has slowed from January with rents and oil continuing to rise at a fast pace. It's likely going to come in at 7% or higher once again, and that is going to call for some immediate strong Fed action as average households are feeling it very hard and are demanding that it come under control.

 

[aja8888]

I don't know, I feel like the economic divide is too great in this country to have a healthy economy. There are so many people barely getting by. There was so much money being pumped into the economy that now has to be pulled out of it. And the rate of increase in both the housing market and stock market is unsustainable, I think we are going to see a gigantic bubble pop before long.

This is good news though because my predictions never come true. No matter what, we are living in interesting times so there's that.

When bubbles pop, they do it in stages. It took real estate until 2011 to finally bottom after the GFC in 2009.

 

[disneysteve]

The markets have been disconnected from the economy for a long, long time.

90% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people.

That means 90% of the population really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.

 

[easysurfer]

Funny how a crisis can lead one into market timing temptation.


My prediction is the market will go up, and down and sometimes sideways .

 

[MuirWannabe]

90% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people.

That means 90% of the population really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.

I see percentages of 56% of Americans owning stocks. And even those who don’t, care to some degree.

 

[Helen]

When bubbles pop, they do it in stages. It took real estate until 2011 to finally bottom after the GFC in 2009.

Yes, we bought our last house in January of 2011. I think we bought pretty close to the bottom.

 

[Stormy Kromer]

All i can think about and pray for is the people in the Ukraine. I could care less about my investments. Good people are getting killed for living on their own land. Sorry Mods if you need to delete this.

 

[Car-Guy]

It's always "something"... Makes it interesting for a small time "trader" like me.

 

[Stormy Kromer]

Shame on anyone who's biggest concern is how to make money when people are getting killed for living in their own country. This isn't political, I don't blame anyone in the US.

Mod's. I'm sorry if I'm out of bounds. Some things are more important than our own financials....people died today defending their country. I went for a walk and watched the stock market climb.

 

[jollystomper]

It is always interesting to see how market theories change from day to day as view in the rear view mirror gets clear . It is enough to make one's head spin if they get caught up in it. This is one reason I just keep things simple, ignore the daily noise, and go about enjoying life .

 

[NW-Bound]

They can't slow down something that they have not even started yet...

True. We have seen nothing yet.

 

[jazz4cash]

Point changes in the indices don’t really resonate with me. I have to look and see the percent change.

 

[skyking1]

Shame on anyone who's biggest concern is how to make money when people are getting killed for living in their own country. This isn't political, I don't blame anyone in the US.

Mod's. I'm sorry if I'm out of bounds. Some things are more important than our own financials....people died today defending their country. I went for a walk and watched the stock market climb.

I was having the same thoughts when I clicked on this thread. I had been avoiding it.

 

[Car-Guy]

It is always interesting to see how market theories change from day to day as view in the rear view mirror gets clear . It is enough to make one's head spin if they get caught up in it. This is one reason I just keep things simple, ignore the daily noise, and go about enjoying life .

I watch a lot more business/financial channels these days. (it's to cold and messy to do much outside)... One thing is clear to me, they (none of them) know much more about what's happening/driving the markets than I do. So why do I continue to watch? That's where I get most of my domestic and international "news" too. Just about everything reported on the regular news channels is also reported on the financial channels. They just put a financial spin on a lot of it.

 

[Helen]

Shame on anyone who's biggest concern is how to make money when people are getting killed for living in their own country. This isn't political, I don't blame anyone in the US.

Mod's. I'm sorry if I'm out of bounds. Some things are more important than our own financials....people died today defending their country. I went for a walk and watched the stock market climb.

I'm sure most of us are horrified by what we are seeing on the news. We can be concerned about others while still being interested in what is happening in the markets.

This thread is posted under the "Fire and Money" section of the forum.
Perhaps you could start a thread on the emotional aspects of the war under the "Other Topics" area of the forum so as not to derail this thread.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'm sure most of us are horrified by what we are seeing on the news. We can be concerned about others while still being interested in what is happening in the markets.

This thread is posted under the "Fire and Money" section of the forum.
Perhaps you could start a thread on the emotional aspects of the war under the "Other Topics" area of the forum so as not to derail this thread.

+1 and well said.

 

[Badger]

I'm sure most of us are horrified by what we are seeing on the news. We can be concerned about others while still being interested in what is happening in the markets.



This thread is posted under the "Fire and Money" section of the forum.

Perhaps you could start a thread on the emotional aspects of the war under the "Other Topics" area of the forum so as not to derail this thread.

+1

Cheers!

 

[GenXguy]

90% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people.

That means 90% of the population really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.

Couldn't care less? That is absolutely false. Even if your first line is correct, that 10% of the stock would still be significant for the remaining 90%.

 

[GenXguy]

I could care less about my investments.

Well at least you "could" care less, which means you care some. Some people "couldn't" care less.

Anyway, I'm following all of those things. Many things matter to me.

 

[ERD50]

90% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people.

That means 90% of the population really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.

I see percentages of 56% of Americans owning stocks. And even those who don’t, care to some degree.

I also wonder about that stat (no links provided?).

At any rate, even if the 90/10 statement is true, I'm not sure that supports the conclusion that they "really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.". That 90% of the population may only hold 10% of the stocks, but if it is a considerable amount of their savings, I'm sure they do care. For many people, their only invested savings might be their 401K/IRA (or similar). And I'd expect those are typically 50% or more in stocks. So those people surely will care if they see their life savings drop in half!

That 90/10 view sounds more like class-warfare fuel than any explanation about the little guy not caring about the markets. And as MuirWannabe points out, you could still be concerned, even with no direct ownership, since a falling market often means layoffs. For someone with little/no investments, losing their job could certainly be more devastating than seeing a portfolio drop (and eventually recover).

edit/add: This link backs up the 56% number. More interesting to me is, 24% of those with household income below $40,000 own stocks.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

-ERD50