Thoughts on TESLA
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NYEXPAT
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I think it was because EM has tweeted that he will take Tesla private at $420 per share. That is why the stock was halted today.
bobandsherry
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If he truely was going to do that, hasn't he now opened himself up for SEC investigation?
Hey I resemble that remark and I still miss my BlackBerry keyboard. My iPhone constantly puts an 'n' when I hit 'space'. And my fingers are just not that big.
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Don't think so. The stock was halted for a moment because it wasn't clear if his twitter was a formal announcement. Restarted when it was posted on the Tesla blog.
He says he's considering it and will ask for shareholder approval, not that he will do it.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/taking-Tesla-private
Note that it isn't a buyout offer, it's a delisting proposal.
Texas Proud
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I went to look to see if I could find out how much Elon owns... could not find..
But Kimbal Musk has sold $12 million worth of stock over the last couple of years..
A nice article on potential liability... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-elon-musk-just-invited-big-lawsuit-193337579.html short sellers have been hurt with this tweet, so can sue if there was nothing behind it..
I would be surprised he could get private funding to take it private... I thought the valuation was insane before, but at $420 or so it is even worse.. I still do not see a return on that investment...
But Kimbal Musk has sold $12 million worth of stock over the last couple of years..
A nice article on potential liability... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-elon-musk-just-invited-big-lawsuit-193337579.html short sellers have been hurt with this tweet, so can sue if there was nothing behind it..
I would be surprised he could get private funding to take it private... I thought the valuation was insane before, but at $420 or so it is even worse.. I still do not see a return on that investment...
aja8888
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I read today that the really rich Saudi prince, or whatever he is, has accumulated another (?) $2 billion in Tesla stock. Now why would these guys want to load up on it, or even think about financing anything when they sell crude oil (LOL)?
Remember a couple of years ago Michael Dell took Dell private. Carl Ican was fighting it but lost.
bobandsherry
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The figure I heard on CNBC today was 20%.
bobandsherry
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So let's just play devil's advocate. If Saudi's got a controlling stake and basically killed Tesla off, you think that has more value than their investment? Maybe.... Not like something similar to this hasn't happened before.
Or could it be they see the future and want to get in on the ground floor? As electric gains more market they get to ride the hill up as oil use subsides, so a hedge bet more or less.
Chuckanut
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If the Saudis wanted to supercharge interest in EVs killing off Tesla would be a great way to do it since it would be clear signal to everybody who does not live in an oil rich country that they need an alternative to petroleum based propulsion.
I think they are hedging their bets. Also, they have a lot of sunshine in Saudi Arabia, true? So there is a lot of solar power to charge their EVs.
Or maybe the short sellers did something to get the Saudi Royal Family mad at them?
Texas Proud
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But the other car companies are catching up to Tesla... looks like Tesla is selling about 40% of the EVs in the US... note: I am a bit surprised at the Model X as it was panned so much in the media... seems to be selling well...
The other thing is that this does not include hybrids which I think is selling much better than all electric.... but I cannot find a site showing these sales..
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
BUT, it looks like US is only 20% of the worldwide sales... and I do not think Tesla has the market in the EU... so they are selling all those other makes... looks like Germany is the largest purchaser of cars which is probably BMWs...
Interesting chart. I notice that the only car model that actually competes with the battery sizes of the Tesla models is the 2018 Chevy Bolt EV. They are the only ones having realistic cross-country ranges running on battery only.
Tesla has the full EV market in Norway and The Netherlands (to a lesser extent), amongst a few other countries. It's mostly China where they are in the minority.
Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe and Opel Ampera are the only other long distance alternatives in Europe, but they do have significant marketshare. BMW is somewhat behind in the race, but catching up.
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Nissan Leaf, and Renault Zoe also have larger battery options either already out, or coming in the next months.
2019 has Volkswagen and Kia right after that. Potentially the Porsche Taycan too (higher price range).
Car-Guy
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Why isn't the stock trading near his $420 number today after such a tweet instead of the mid $370's.
? Maybe the market doesn't believe it.
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Why isn't the stock trading near his $420 number today after such a tweet instead of the mid $370's.
Because Musk is volatile and sometimes trollish, and putting money behind his tweet would be very high risk. Tesla has no other reason to break 400, and is already overvalued per many analysts.
It was about 340, now 370. Target price 420.
In other words: consensus estimate is that there's about 30% chance this will happen (370 - 340) / (420 - 340).
If you think the odds are different, place your bets! Very tempted myself I might add ..
In other words: consensus estimate is that there's about 30% chance this will happen (370 - 340) / (420 - 340).
If you think the odds are different, place your bets! Very tempted myself I might add ..
Texas Proud
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Yea, it was talked about off and on today on CNBC... many questioning how he could get funding... but someone pointed out he said he HAD funding...
I think there will be lawsuits from the shorts and they might win if he did not have funding like he said...
mistermike40
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That's an interesting way to determine the probability of Tesla hitting $420... I've never seen that formula before... and 30/80 is 37.5%
Golden Mean
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But the other car companies are catching up to Tesla... looks like Tesla is selling about 40% of the EVs in the US... note: I am a bit surprised at the Model X as it was panned so much in the media... seems to be selling well...
The other thing is that this does not include hybrids which I think is selling much better than all electric.... but I cannot find a site showing these sales..
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
Anything with an 'H' in the far left column in the above image is a (plugin) hybrid.
bobandsherry
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bobandsherry
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Ignoring the lack of officially filed disclosures (e.g. 8K), if Musk can't provide proof of "funding secured" it will be interesting to see what fines or other legal remedies he gets hit with. Perhaps the only thing "420" was Musk smoking a fatty.
The Cosmic Avenger
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I'm just glad I got in at $173/share. (I didn't put a lot into it, less than I put into Apple and Google years earlier. Now all three together have grown to about 5% of our portfolio, but originally they were more like 1-2%.)
I'm not crazy about Musk's PR "strategy", but like Apple and Google, I like the pioneering work the company has done in fields other than what they're best known for, in Tesla's case, solar panels and storage batteries. I feel like those will be pivotal to reducing energy costs and fossil fuel use.
I'm not crazy about Musk's PR "strategy", but like Apple and Google, I like the pioneering work the company has done in fields other than what they're best known for, in Tesla's case, solar panels and storage batteries. I feel like those will be pivotal to reducing energy costs and fossil fuel use.
gauss
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Yeah - but will he just use "shareholder money" to pay any fines? Not much of a disincentive.
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