Thoughts on TESLA

[eroscott]

Where does that 4 to 6 times come from?
It's a tad tricky to directly compare energy costs. The feds apparently have a website that compares regular gas to an "eGallon"
Using their calculator it's showing roughly a 2:1 ratio today.
Examples:
Here in Ohio they show gas at $2.16, (though I saw it at $1.59 at Marathon today) and an eGallon at $1.04 ("average cost of electricity for the state"). Still cheaper, but certainly not 4 to 6 times cheaper.
Another example, California, they have gas at $3.32 and eGallon at $1.76. So both gasoline and electricity appear to be a little more than 50% higher than here in the Midwest.
The definition of eGallon seems a tad flexible since they are trying to compare "similar vehicles". Does that compare a Volt to a Cruze and a Tesla S with a Mercedes E Class? Unclear to me. Which cars they compare and their specific mpg would seem to matter a lot.
From these rough numbers it appears to me that high mpg ICE cars are "fairly" competitive with EVs even today (my diesel MB E250 get's almost double the mpg as the gasoline powered MB E350 for example).
And gasoline is pretty cheap these days and with the US becoming a net exporter of oil (thanks's to the fracking revolution) it should stay reasonably priced for a while.
I just don't see that huge price advantage of using electric over oil you mention.

Nice job and good points.

Cost per mile is the common way to compare.

I've seen that in a few presentations (GM as an example) and there are sites like the inl.gov (https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf) that give you other ways to present/compare them.

Gas prices vary quite a bit depending on the state you are in and even area within the state. For example in Chicagoland we have our own refineries and additives for 'cleaner' gas so our gas is high. See GasBuddy chart below. You can go there and zoom in on the map to diff areas.

Electricity prices vary significantly as well. In some places the have off-peak charge rates, separate tiers, and even hourly rates.
These can be significantly cheaper than the normal prices you pay for electricity. High electricity areas often have high gas too (at least in the NE and SW).

I am on an hourly electrical rate and our cars charge off peak when the rates are cheaper. Plus I have much less impact to the grid by doing that. My prices are probably 4-5 times cheaper.

Many also like the fact that electricity is getting 'cleaner' each year at a much much faster rate than gas/diesel is getting 'cleaner'. See chart at very bottom. All the states are in there. North Carolina is an interesting one and a potentional retirement location for us for various reasons. How electricity generation changed in your state -- site: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/24/climate/how-electricity-generation-changed-in-your-state.html


Gas

Electricity

____________________________________
https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf

How electricity generation changed in your state -- site: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/24/climate/how-electricity-generation-changed-in-your-state.html

 

[eroscott]

Just wait for Fed and States to start taxing the cost to recharge the EV's and see how much of the savings evaporates. After all, if oil and gas sales drop how do you think they'll cover the taxes they get today to fund roads.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=10

Some discussion and a chart in previous post here: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-80.html#post2163801

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Where did you get $26K? The article I read says it is higher....

When the Kona Electric goes on sale in early 2019, it will start at $37,495 before the $7500 federal tax credit.
​

Still, $30K is more reasonable... but a nice Kona with ICE is $23K list... A quick calc says you need to drive 125K miles or so to break even (could be really flawed calc as I used MPGe and gas prices for comparison)...





I want something a bit bigger than a Kona though... right now we have a Hyundai Genesis and Honda Pilot... once you get vehicles in those sizes that compete in price I will be looking at getting one.... but, the Pilot will need to be able to tow a boat... and have chargers in the middle of nowhere so I can go to my favorite lake... at least I could possibly replace my car...

There is also a state refund. In California it is 2500. I believe its 4500 in Georgia. Then electrical companies can give rebates. In SoCal its 450, so I got 900 for my 2 EV's.

As I recalled things, the Kona electric was 26k after credits/rebates. But 37,500 minus 7500 Federal, 2500 state and 450 electrical company puts it at 27k so yes I was off 1000....the Kona would be 27 after everything.

So it would be 4000 more than the ICE version. And no brake repairs, gasoline station visits or purchases, no smelly fumes, etc. If I wasn't maxed out on EV's I'd do it.

 

[bobandsherry]

Some discussion and a chart in previous post here: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/thoughts-on-tesla-86202-80.html#post2163801

Thanks, will be interesting to see how what tune the states who defeated an EV fee/tax will do once they start to lose the revenue from gas sales. I think we all know where that will end up.

 

[NW-Bound]

The announcement of the 2 new directors is great news . Some actual Adults will be in the room.

Remember the British diver whom Musk called a pedophile, a child rapist, then challenged to sue him? After that challenge, the diver, Unsworth, did file a lawsuit in a federal court in LA.

Musk's lawyers now filed to dismiss this case, saying Musk’s “over-the-top” comments came amid a “schoolyard spat on social media”, including Twitter, where participants “expect to read opinions, not facts”, and that no one could have reasonably believed they were truthful.

These statements were “just imaginative attacks; even if offensive, such speculative insults are by their nature opinion and protected by the first amendment,” the lawyers said.

Of course, it has been suspected that Musk's tweets are often factless, such as the claim to take the company private, and who knows other technical proclamations. His tweets should not be taken seriously. This is now publicly confirmed.

 

[ERD50]

Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott View Post
you are using 'fuel' from the electrical grid which is 4 to 6 times cheaper than gas.

Where does that 4 to 6 times come from?

.....

I just don't see that huge price advantage of using electric over oil you mention.

Nice job and good points.

Cost per mile is the common way to compare. ....

eroscott had a long post with other data, I'm not sure the cost really got answered?

There's an easy back-of-the-envelope way to compare. An EV will go about 3 miles on a kWh. Rounding the national average to $0.10/kWh for easy math, that means $1 will get you 30 miles.

So a car getting 30 mpg uses a gallon of gas to go the same distance, at about $2.30/gallon. So 2.3:1 is ballpark cost ratio in favor of EV. Of course if efficiency is the target, you're driving a hybrid getting 40+ mpg, cutting the ratio to ~ 1.7:1.

The chart he has, I don't see a 4x to 6x path with numbers I'm familiar with. At 4x and a 3 mile/kWh EV at $0.10/kWh, and our current $2.30 gas, you need to go down to an 18 mpg vehicle to hit 4x, 6x is off the chart?

The rest of his post about the clean grid is something I've talked about many times. It's a red herring. Averages of grid sources mean almost nothing - what matters is what fuel source will be used to meet the extra demand of an EV fleet.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

... The rest of his post about the clean grid is something I've talked about many times. It's a red herring. Averages of grid sources mean almost nothing - what matters is what fuel source will be used to meet the extra demand of an EV fleet...

It can still help to "outsource" the pollution to somewhere else.

The Chinese are encouraging EVs, particularly in congested cities like Beijing or Shenzhen, even though half of China's electricity comes from coal.

It keeps the vehicle smog out of the cities, and the coal-burning plants are built away from the cities.

 

[eroscott]

This is one of the 'cooler' Tesla Superchargers for several reasons:
Kettleman City, CA
33360 Powers Dr
Date Opened 2017-11-15
Hours 24/7
Stalls 40
Power 120 kW
Solar Canopy Yes
Battery Storage Yes

 

[JoeWras]

It can still help to "outsource" the pollution to somewhere else.

The Chinese are encouraging EVs, particularly in congested cities like Beijing or Shenzhen, even though half of China's electricity comes from coal.

It keeps the vehicle smog out of the cities, and the coal-burning plants are built away from the cities.

Yeah, but... Those of us on the far east coast (Georgia to Maine) still suffered from all that coal burning west of us, even though they were multiple hundreds of miles away. Exporting works only to a certain degree.

Aside from acid rain, our skies got milky. Over my past 30 years in NC, the sky has gotten noticeably more blue in summer. This is due to both local and distant pollution control.

Pollution is one area I welcome EV technology, as long as the massive power infrastructure changes required doesn't create more pollution. That goes for anywhere in the world.

Building batteries in a dirty factory in Malaysia, for example, gets us a net of nowhere.

 

[Ronstar]

I'm sure that most people considering buying a Tesla know this - the tax credit gets cut in half next week and goes bye bye in 2020.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/luxury/...gzpFkcNCWCzBAGy8DrmNjhNc-SKJtFYE2q34zVRqJXgYM

 

[NW-Bound]

Yeah, but... Those of us on the far east coast (Georgia to Maine) still suffered from all that coal burning west of us, even though they were multiple hundreds of miles away. Exporting works only to a certain degree.

Aside from acid rain, our skies got milky. Over my past 30 years in NC, the sky has gotten noticeably more blue in summer. This is due to both local and distant pollution control.

Pollution is one area I welcome EV technology, as long as the massive power infrastructure changes required doesn't create more pollution. That goes for anywhere in the world.

Building batteries in a dirty factory in Malaysia, for example, gets us a net of nowhere.

The wind blows west to east. So, if you are on the west coast, you are honky dory.

Well, people either do not know and truly believe that they are "green". Or if they know, they say "tough luck, I get subsidized to be green and it's your fault you get pollution".

About running an EV on 120V plug, when we were still working, we each commuted around 50 miles round-trip each day, with my workplace east of our home and my wife's workplace north of it. Throw in some reserve for running AC in the summer and the heater in the winter, and one can easily see that overnight charging with a 120V outlet would be farcical for our situation.

I really doubt if many people who buy an EV can get away with not installing a 220V charging outlet at home. In any case, some simple estimate will tell you if you can get away with a 120V outlet or not, but I suspect people who spend money for an EV will want a 220V charging station unless their commute is very short. Or they are retired and do not leave home everyday, allowing the trickle charge plenty of time to do its job. I have been thinking about getting a used LEAF to make grocery runs just for fun. I would do fine with a 120V extension cord.

PS. China's electricity was 67% coal in 2016, not 50% as I stated earlier. It's projected to go down to 47% in 2040.

 

[kcowan]

You will most certainly not have a gas station on every corner like you see today.

One of the obstacles is the length of time the property needs for remediation after the tanks are removed. I would see hybrids developing depending on the capacity of the local power grid.

(and their convenience stores might morph into secure drop spots for online deliveries.)

 

[Texas Proud]

There is also a state refund. In California it is 2500. I believe its 4500 in Georgia. Then electrical companies can give rebates. In SoCal its 450, so I got 900 for my 2 EV's.

As I recalled things, the Kona electric was 26k after credits/rebates. But 37,500 minus 7500 Federal, 2500 state and 450 electrical company puts it at 27k so yes I was off 1000....the Kona would be 27 after everything.

So it would be 4000 more than the ICE version. And no brake repairs, gasoline station visits or purchases, no smelly fumes, etc. If I wasn't maxed out on EV's I'd do it.

OK... different rebates for different states.... we have none... now, there are some in Texas but they are very specific and not given out just to buy a car.... so for Texas the net is around $30K... so a different analysis if the cost is $30K vs $26K or $27K....

 

[ERD50]

This is one of the 'cooler' Tesla Superchargers for several reasons:
Kettleman City, CA
33360 Powers Dr
Date Opened 2017-11-15
Hours 24/7
Stalls 40
Power 120 kW
Solar Canopy Yes
Battery Storage Yes

?

What makes it 'cool'? Several reasons?

I guess some people might consider the 'window dressing' of solar canopies 'cool', w/o realizing they are far more for "show" than "go" (literally in this case).

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

I read that China already has more than 1.2 million EVs on the road. Sounds very progressive, until I read that the coal plants under consideration or construction right now are the same as the entire coal power fleet currently operating in the US. Holy cow!

And they build these plants right in town too. Heck, save on transmission lines, you know?

 

[oneill225]

One of the obstacles is the length of time the property needs for remediation after the tanks are removed. I would see hybrids developing depending on the capacity of the local power grid.
(and their convenience stores might morph into secure drop spots for online deliveries.)

Yes, these properties will be more expensive and complicated to repurpose due to the underground tanks. At least, the pain will be spread out over time and location, so the economic impact on a community should be minimal (unlike a large plant closing). Refineries and the tanker trucks serving the corner gas stations will also be need to be repurposed or shut down over time. The electric utilities should be hiring, though.

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of supercharging, I saw in the news that BMW and Porsche just demonstrated a supercharger capable of delivering 450kW. Holy mackerel! That's 1/2 a megawatt. That's 4x what a Tesla supercharger can deliver.

When it turned on, I wonder if the nearby town would notice when the lights dim. It's impressive, although I am not sure that there's yet any battery that can take that kind of fast charge and last very long.

I am impressed with it as an engineering feat, but the practicality is still in question.

 

[NW-Bound]

I guess some people might consider the 'window dressing' of solar canopies 'cool', w/o realizing they are far more for "show" than "go".

-ERD50

On a good day, under midday sun with a clear sky, all the canopies in the photo may, just may, come close to 100kW needed to supercharge a single Tesla.

It does not mean that they are not useful. Every bit helps. But someone ignorant may say "look, the charging station is self-sufficient".

Every so often, I saw on the Web someone who expected to see an EV with a solar roof, so that it can run perpetually on solar.

 

[JoeWras]

Every so often, I saw on the Web someone who expected to see an EV with a solar roof, so that it can run perpetually on solar.

Perhaps it is from the collective consciousness of the various solar car challenge races? These cars typically have drivers weigh in at 80kg with a car 300kg or less. Comfort consists of a liter of water to drink or spray on you and rain-x as a windshield wiper.

These races are great! Super good for engineering students.

But they won't be daily drivers until serious power breakthroughs are made so a car with typical comfort and safety can be designed.

 

[Texas Proud]

Yes, these properties will be more expensive and complicated to repurpose due to the underground tanks. At least, the pain will be spread out over time and location, so the economic impact on a community should be minimal (unlike a large plant closing). Refineries and the tanker trucks serving the corner gas stations will also be need to be repurposed or shut down over time. The electric utilities should be hiring, though.

Not that expensive... heck, around me there have been a good number of corner gas stations closing as newer and bigger ones open...


It was funny since my DW mentioned that the two main intersections near us has zero gas stations now as the last two were closed and tore down this past year... yet on minor corners we have a new larger one and down the road on another minor intersections there are others.

 

[Chuckanut]

OK, so predictions are flawed.... but they are being made by people who are in the industry and have much more knowledge than you are me.... and I still do not see any prediction that in 5 or 10 years that EV sales will dominate... none... and you have not provided any either... from someone with knowledge that is as you have predicted it yourself...

Yes, predictions can be very flawed indeed. I don't think even Mr. Musk, well known for very optimistic predictions, would predict the end of gas stations in the next decade or two. Or EV's driving out ICE cars in a decade.

 

[Chuckanut]

It was funny since my DW mentioned that the two main intersections near us has zero gas stations now as the last two were closed and tore down this past year... yet on minor corners we have a new larger one and down the road on another minor intersections there are others.

Same here. The corner gas stations are down, but now the supermarkets, and big box stores like Costco have added stations with lots of capacity.

 

[gstillson]

Speaking of supercharging, I saw in the news that BMW and Porsche just demonstrated a supercharger capable of delivering 450kW. Holy mackerel! That's 1/2 a megawatt. That's 4x what a Tesla supercharger can deliver.

When it turned on, I wonder if the nearby town would notice when the lights dim. It's impressive, although I am not sure that there's yet any battery that can take that kind of fast charge and last very long.

I am impressed with it as an engineering feat, but the practicality is still in question.

There evidently are some new super capacitors with a fairly low self discharge which could take that 450kW and not bat an eye. They are not very efficient in watts per kilogram right now though but they do have them in big sizes (multi kilowatt-hr)

 

[NW-Bound]

Supercapacitors are amazing, but they do not yet have the energy density to replace lithium batteries. I read that they are being used to store power from regenerative braking of transit buses, metro cars, etc..., in order to relaunch the vehicles from the stop, but not as main storage batteries.

On youtube, there are guys who use smaller supercapacitors to store enough juice to start a car. The package is the size of a common lead-acid battery or smaller, but a lot more expensive.

 

[aja8888]

The state and federal underground tank rules for service stations went in during the 1980 - 1990 time frame. I worked at ARCO at the time and personally registered data on about 40,000 UST's in California in 1985 (on a tape).

All the USTs had to be registered and upgraded over an approximate 10 year period to have double wall tank construction, leak detection and monitoring systems and periodic visual inspections along with periodic tank tightness testing.

You can bet that 95%+ of all USTs in the U.S. are non-leakers nowadays. So shutting down and repurposing service stations operated by "majors" is not an issue anymore.