Thoughts on TESLA

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Midpack said:
The video I linked was from October. And we don’t know, but I wonder if this has anything to do with Munro’s change in stance?
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-teardown-analysis-sandy-munro-threatened-lawsuit/
The body and chassis manufacturing and labor issues could have been fixed, but that would be much faster than normal. Auto manufacturing retooling is very expensive.
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Sorry, I see the video is dated October. The tear downs were done earlier (as per the April and July articles).
 
oneill225 said:
I have a Roth IRA that I trade out of for stocks, so no capital gains implications when I trade for the short-term. I am not a day trader (although it happens on some lucky days), but I do trade weekly (with a portion of our portfolio). I have purchased and sold Tesla stock at least a dozen times over the past year and I will continue to do so until I stop making money. Usually, investing $10,000 to $30,000 depending on the cash available and the reason behind the drop. When it pops back 4 or 5% I sell. Lately, however, I am also holding a portion for the longer term. So far, so good.
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Wasn't asking about day trading. You indicate you have strong confidence in Tesla as a company. I don't know what your total portfolio is, but $10-30K investment doesn't seem to show you have full faith that Tesla will achieve the level of success that you convey it will. If you truly felt as confident as you are in this company reaching high level of success, you should be throwing everything you have in it.

If you think that's totally ridiculous and foolish, perhaps it is. However I had a old friend who felt very strongly in a company, he put every dollar he had into the company. Even decided to work for them and took most of his compensation in equity. He was even crazy enough to borrow against his home and invested that money. He was that sure of it paying off for him and showed he had the guts to invest in that company. Turns out he was smarter than me, he saw a huge return when company was sold, taking a $20 million gain. Said part is, he only lived 10 years after that - so as they say you can't take it with you.

I know, "cool story bro".... but that's what I consider to truly be a "guts and glory" story. $30K, pffff... I have $30K invested long in companies that I feel will just do marginally better long term, and significantly more than that in companies I have higher confidence with. If you truly have confidence that Tesla will be the company you portray it to be, you should be balls deep and long, not some buy on the dips type of trader. Go Long - Go Strong.
 
NW-Bound said:
Very plausible. I have been wondering how Tesla batteries' life is so long, compared to other experiences with lithium battery. Even the LiFePO4 (lithium iron phosphate) battery which is regarded as having the longest life of all lithium types loses about 20% after 2,000 charge/discharge cycles between 0-100%.

So, what if Tesla puts in a 130kWh battery, and describes it as 100kWh battery, with the 30kWh kept in reserve for aging? The consumer is not promised something he does not get, and I think it is still fair.
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Tesla is not alone in this. My Toyota Hybrid does a similar thing. IIRC, it uses about 80% of its capacity. The other 20% is there to keep the battery from suffering the stress of being fully charged and fully discharged. It appears that Toyota and other auto companies have put a lot of thought into extending battery life by reducing stress on the battery.
 
bobandsherry said:
Wasn't asking about day trading. You indicate you have strong confidence in Tesla as a company. I don't know what your total portfolio is, but $10-30K investment doesn't seem to show you have full faith that Tesla will achieve the level of success that you convey it will. If you truly felt as confident as you are in this company reaching high level of success, you should be throwing everything you have in it.

<snip>

I know, "cool story bro".... but that's what I consider to truly be a "guts and glory" story. $30K, pffff... I have $30K invested long in companies that I feel will just do marginally better long term, and significantly more than that in companies I have higher confidence with. If you truly have confidence that Tesla will be the company you portray it to be, you should be balls deep and long, not some buy on the dips type of trader. Go Long - Go Strong.
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A bit off topic, but very important IMHO.......

I must disagree with the idea that an investor, even a confident one, should be "throwing everything you have in it".

Diversification is perhaps the #1 rule of investing. In my book that means no more than about 4-5% in any single stock. To do otherwise would be foolish despite one's personal opinion on the future of the company, any company.

Frankly, the last paragraph of your comment is something I would expect to hear from a guy trying to sell me Iraqi dinars, or get me to exchange my dollars for the newest crypto-currency. "Guts and Glory" in investing :confused: I'd run like heck from anybody who tells me that. My 2¢ and my opinions.

OK, back to observing this thread as somebody who does not own a Tesla vehicle or the stock, or plans to buy either any time soon. (I assume my mutual funds have a bit of the Tesla stock. That's enough for me.)

Popcorn anyone?

:popcorn:
 
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bobandsherry said:
Wasn't asking about day trading. You indicate you have strong confidence in Tesla as a company. I don't know what your total portfolio is, but $10-30K investment doesn't seem to show you have full faith that Tesla will achieve the level of success that you convey it will. If you truly felt as confident as you are in this company reaching high level of success, you should be throwing everything you have in it.

If you think that's totally ridiculous and foolish, perhaps it is. However I had a old friend who felt very strongly in a company, he put every dollar he had into the company. Even decided to work for them and took most of his compensation in equity. He was even crazy enough to borrow against his home and invested that money. He was that sure of it paying off for him and showed he had the guts to invest in that company. Turns out he was smarter than me, he saw a huge return when company was sold, taking a $20 million gain. Said part is, he only lived 10 years after that - so as they say you can't take it with you.

I know, "cool story bro".... but that's what I consider to truly be a "guts and glory" story. $30K, pffff... I have $30K invested long in companies that I feel will just do marginally better long term, and significantly more than that in companies I have higher confidence with. If you truly have confidence that Tesla will be the company you portray it to be, you should be balls deep and long, not some buy on the dips type of trader. Go Long - Go Strong.
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Why are you even posting in this thread if none of your post have anything to do with the thread title? Thoughts on TESLA
 
Lot of Tesla sales graph over time showing it ramping up.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-production-deliveries-graphed-q4-2018/

oHlVevi.jpg
 
bobandsherry said:
Wasn't asking about day trading. You indicate you have strong confidence in Tesla as a company. I don't know what your total portfolio is, but $10-30K investment doesn't seem to show you have full faith that Tesla will achieve the level of success that you convey it will. If you truly felt as confident as you are in this company reaching high level of success, you should be throwing everything you have in it.
If you think that's totally ridiculous and foolish, perhaps it is. However I had a old friend who felt very strongly in a company, he put every dollar he had into the company. Even decided to work for them and took most of his compensation in equity. He was even crazy enough to borrow against his home and invested that money. He was that sure of it paying off for him and showed he had the guts to invest in that company. Turns out he was smarter than me, he saw a huge return when company was sold, taking a $20 million gain. Said part is, he only lived 10 years after that - so as they say you can't take it with you.
I know, "cool story bro".... but that's what I consider to truly be a "guts and glory" story. $30K, pffff... I have $30K invested long in companies that I feel will just do marginally better long term, and significantly more than that in companies I have higher confidence with. If you truly have confidence that Tesla will be the company you portray it to be, you should be balls deep and long, not some buy on the dips type of trader. Go Long - Go Strong.
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Okay...….Thanks for the chuckle. Back to Tesla.
 
The latest scorecard from InsideEVS showing 2018 figures:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

So Tesla sold 139,782 Model 3s. GM sold 16,907 Volts (not including December figures, so maybe a few thousand higher).

GM was so proud that they were first to market with a 200+ mile range EV, a full year ahead of Tesla. I wonder what they are thinking now about their Volt, and what plans they have, if any, to come out with something more competitive.
 
Topic: Thoughts on TESLA
A lot of discussion about Tesla cars here but cars are really just 1 of their products. Batteries are the key to several of their products. This article just popped up today.

Tesla’s Secret Weapon: Intense Focus On Batteries: https://insideevs.com/tesla-secret-weapon-intense-focus-batteries/

However, Tesla is pulling it off, there’s little doubt that its batteries are cheaper, and Thomas believes things will stay that way. “Even if incumbents decided to use cylindrical cells, it will be challenging to engineer a manufacturing process that is economical, and not time consuming. Packaging cylindrical cells is a process Tesla has been refining for over 10 years.”

Tesla’s industry-leading battery cost also has implications beyond the auto industry. Elon Musk has said in the past that the company’s stationary storage business could someday be bigger than its vehicles. Enrique Dans writes in Forbes that “battery manufacturing is set to become one of the most important industries on the planet, and whoever dominates it will occupy a privileged place in many ways, supplying a wide variety of industries from vehicles to household goods, as well of course as electricity generation.”

“Twelve years ago, when he described his company’s ‘secret master plan,’ Elon Musk spoke not only about making cheaper electric cars, but included a third point, which was providing the means to generate zero-emissions electricity, a point that many pundits missed amid the hullaballoo over Tesla cars,” Dans continues. “Today, with the company in the black, it turns out that battery production has been the key to its strategy: the reason why auto industry veterans like Bob Lutz could not understand Tesla’s road map was because Tesla isn’t a car company, it’s a battery company.”

“Tesla isn’t a car manufacturer competing with other automobile manufacturers…Tesla’s vehicles are consumers of the company’s main product: batteries,” Dans concludes. “Rethink your models and your spreadsheets: stop seeing Tesla as a carmaker and start understanding that the company has much more ambitious plans for the future.”
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Ready said:
So Tesla sold 139,782 Model 3s. GM sold 16,907 Volts (not including December figures, so maybe a few thousand higher).
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It's a global game in my view, and there are about 6 or so manufacturers that have the same volumes as Tesla. GM doesn't show up in the top-10.

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-sales-ranked-oem-2018/

Asia and Europe are winning this game for now in volume terms, the only significant player in the USA is Tesla.
 
eroscott said:
Topic: Thoughts on TESLA
A lot of discussion about Tesla cars here but cars are really just 1 of their products. Batteries are the key to several of their products. This article just popped up today.
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How % of their revenue though?I do agree though that I'd probably sell-off the automotive bit to another manufacturer and go OEM on the battery parts.

Then again, I'm just a guy behind a keyboard ..
 
Tesla's batteries are made by Panasonic, who shares ownership of the Gigafactory in a partnership. There was some info about Tesla having some input to the "recipe" in the battery chemistry, but the means of battery production belongs to Panasonic. Tesla is totally responsible for assembling them into the packs, designing and building the electronics and the liquid cooling system.

The batteries built by Panasonic at the Gigafactory are for use by Tesla only. Panasonic does have other factories, where it makes prismatic cells for other EV makers.

Recently, Musk hinted that for the Chinese EV market, he will source batteries locally. Right now, Panasonic is Tesla's sole battery supplier.
 
NW-Bound said:
Recently, Musk hinted that for the Chinese EV market, he will source batteries locally. Right now, Panasonic is Tesla's sole battery supplier.
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According to the WSJ the Chinese government has nearly made this a requirement for EV's made in China, so perhaps it's also true of cars imported into China. There is one exception: Volvo - the Chinese owned car company gets to use a superior battery made in Korea.

Behind a paywall.....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/power-...olvo-avoids-beijings-battery-rules-1526551937


Chinese-owned Volvo Car Group is being allowed to use high-end South Korean battery technology in vehicles it builds in China, even as Beijing strong-arms other auto makers into using Chinese batteries.
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China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd. 051910 0.76% and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.
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Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions. That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.
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Chuckanut said:
Tesla is not alone in this. My Toyota Hybrid does a similar thing. IIRC, it uses about 80% of its capacity. The other 20% is there to keep the battery from suffering the stress of being fully charged and fully discharged. It appears that Toyota and other auto companies have put a lot of thought into extending battery life by reducing stress on the battery.
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Yes. Here's something more about this, as taken from an article about the Panasonic lithium cell, although the life-shortening due to full cycling is applicable to all types of lithium cells.

To estimate the number of cycles that the cell can undergo in its lifetime, we charge it at a maximal current of 0,5C and discharge at a current of 1C at 25 degrees Celsius and then we count the number of charge/discharge cycles until the cell degrades down to 70% of its initial capacity (2250mAh). In the case of these cells, the number is about 500 cycles.

500 cycles? But that’s (relatively) low! Yes. But what is not shown on the spec sheet is that when you partially charge and discharge, degradation of the battery capacity is reduced. Thus, you can do over 40 000 charge/discharge cycles when going from 30% to 70% only. Or over 35 000 charge/discharge cycles from 20% to 80%; 28 000 cycles from 10% to 90%; 15 000 cycles from 8% to 92%, 7500 cycles from 6% to 94%, and the capacity reduction goes faster and faster, finally reaching 500 cycles when recharging from 0% to 100%.
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See: Let’s talk about the Panasonic NCR18650B | EV And More

The LIFePO4 cells with which I am building my DIY home energy storage are spec'ed at 20% capacity loss after 2000 cycles of 0% to 100% capacity. It is also safer, in that it will not burst into flames if abused (and I will have a network of microcontrollers to monitor them). If its life and safety are so superior to other types, one would wonder why EV makers do not use it. The answer is that some Chinese EV makers do, but not everyone. The drawback is that the LiFePO4 type does not have the energy density of other types, and will weigh more for the same capacity.

The 18650 cells used in Tesla Model S have the best capacity for the size, compared to the cells made by other makers that one can get off-the-shelf.
 
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bobandsherry said:
... I guess everyone has an opinion...
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Not true. Many do not have an opinion about the stock, such as myself, and choose to stand on the sideline. Neither long nor short the stock.
 
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bobandsherry said:
This Tesla Bear paints bleak picture for Tesla stock, target of $80 for the year. I guess everyone has an opinion...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/wal...-says-stock-will-tank-70-percent-in-2019.html
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I could certainly see that happening. There are an awful lot of ways that Tesla could crash and burn. I keep wondering what the actual size of the market for cars like Teslas will be on an ongoing basis. Up until recently, they've made a pretty negligible number of cars, so there has always been plenty of pent up demand. We don't really know know how many people total will want to own a Tesla though, or how often they will want to upgrade to a new one. Is that millions of people, or does Tesla run the risk of running out of customers at some point now that they can actually produce a significant number of cars? They've got a lot of debt. If they need to scale down production in a year or two for lack of demand, they will be in serious trouble.

By my math, the Teslas sold in Q3 cost an average of about 72k. That is a huge amount of money to spend on a car. How big is the market at that price point? If the price has to come down, will Tesla be able to build them profitably?

The huge chunk of debt that they also need to pay off in Q1 is concerning as well. If the stock price is under $360 when that debt comes due, that will have a pretty large impact on their balance sheet.
 
Hamlet said:
I could certainly see that happening. There are an awful lot of ways that Tesla could crash and burn. I keep wondering what the actual size of the market for cars like Teslas will be on an ongoing basis. Up until recently, they've made a pretty negligible number of cars, so there has always been plenty of pent up demand. We don't really know know how many people total will want to own a Tesla though, or how often they will want to upgrade to a new one. Is that millions of people, or does Tesla run the risk of running out of customers at some point now that they can actually produce a significant number of cars? They've got a lot of debt. If they need to scale down production in a year or two for lack of demand, they will be in serious trouble. By my math, the Teslas sold in Q3 cost an average of about 72k. That is a huge amount of money to spend on a car. How big is the market at that price point? If the price has to come down, will Tesla be able to build them profitably?
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Today, you can buy a new Model 3 (264 mile range) for $44,000 before any government incentives. Markets are now opening in the EU and China, as well. With the new Model Y SUV becoming available this year, demand for Tesla is unlikely to wane over the next couple of years. Serious competition for Tesla won't arrive until 2020 or beyond and Tesla should be even more competitive (with products and pricing) by that time.
 
Buffett has been investing in BYD, a Chinese battery and EV maker. Out of curiosity, I looked to see the lowest price EV that BYD is selling in China, and saw this BYD Yuan EV.

Not in the same class as the Tesla Model 3, but nor is its price: 80,000 yuan or US$12K. Range is 305km or 190mi.

See: BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with price starting from RMB 79,900

6366311509892262392444673.png
 
NW-Bound said:
Buffett has been investing in BYD, a Chinese battery and EV maker. Out of curiosity, I looked to see the lowest price EV that BYD is selling in China, and saw this BYD Yuan EV.

Not in the same class as the Tesla Model 3, but nor is its price: 80,000 yuan or US$12K. Range is 305km or 190mi.

See: BYD Yuan EV360 goes on sale with price starting from RMB 79,900

6366311509892262392444673.png
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Does this auto meet all USA safety standards? That's a biggie that many overlook when comparing prices of cars in places like India and China with the USA.
 
Totoro said:
It's a global game in my view, and there are about 6 or so manufacturers that have the same volumes as Tesla. GM doesn't show up in the top-10.

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-sales-ranked-oem-2018/

Asia and Europe are winning this game for now in volume terms, the only significant player in the USA is Tesla.
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a) Not sure if the global view makes good sense if you look at where the population of people are at compared to where various car companies sell cars.
ie. how many China or India cars are sold in the USA?

Because the population is so disproportional China companies will sell more EVs based on population numbers and the government pushing them (and India in the future (they have the top cities with smog in the world)).

3jeayYZ.jpg

Populations: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

b) Related to Europe -- Tesla Model 3 is ready for order in 14 countries in Europe
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-orders-europe-china/

c) Related to China ... Tesla has opened up the Model 3 config there in the past couple days.
xuO25VC.jpg
 
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Chuckanut said:
Does this auto meet all USA safety standards? That's a biggie that many overlook when comparing prices of cars in places like India and China with the USA.
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I don't know. Most likely not. But then, it fits the budget of people of many countries outside the US and Europe.

Per capita GDP of China is US$8,800, that of Russia is US$10,700, etc...
 
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