easysurfer
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2008
- Messages
- 13,156
Bill? Bill Maher? Is that you?
I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.
Bill? Bill Maher? Is that you?
I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.
(Not really a response to you personally but in general )?While this is true, it was still a very difficult time for a lot of people—DD’s hubs was out of work for an incredibly stressful two years, a contractor we engaged in 2009 actually started crying when we signed a contract, people lost their houses, I think the city of Chicago had zero building permit applications for a couple of years. So many lives put on hold. There are some threads here during that downturn that are so sobering.
I don't follow Bill Maher. So not making the connection. But I'm sure there is one.
I don't follow/watch him either, but his comments, and the 'reasons' for them, were relatively widely publicized....further elaboration however might be inadvisable on my part.
Bill? Bill Maher? Is that you?
After the late Jan/early Feb sell off, I wrote (somewhere here) that I thought we hadn't seen the highs for the year. I still think that.
Here's a chart of the S&P 500thinkorswim Sharing. I drew the wedge lines, which is a positive formation. We had an exuberant top, a big decline, and then the lower highs with higher lows (wedge formation) which has been exited on the upside. This is positive. The market then rallied up to the Mid March and late February highs, which is also where the big down days were on the February swoon. There are a lot of people who bought the initial January selloff and early February who would like to get out, so this area is a natural place to meet resistance.
One possibility is that we revisit the wedge breakout levels (around SP 500 at 2650-2675 level) to retest the breakout before proceeding higher. This makes sense as the tech's are overbought. Things like the Russell 2000 already made new highs post February, eventually the rest of the market will be there. (I hope.)
Then again, it can all be random.
... At the time no one knew how long "2008" would last, although I remember some predictions were quite dire; "end of life as we know it" sort of thing. I was as [-]worried[/-] frightened as anyone else!
Again today, we also don't know if by December we'll be wondering what all the fuss was about or if everyone will be wondering how we'll survive.
My only point was that 2008 taught me that every few years we go through these panic modes in the market that turn out to be relatively short lived......
Sigh...
I don't worry about day to day. We will see.
-ERD50
Agree, but it is too bad because it "feels" like the market should be in better shape if one takes out these types of extra factors....I think the market uncertainty will continue for most of the year. That is what the prospect of trade wars can do.
I think the market uncertainty will continue for most of the year. That is what the prospect of trade wars can do.
Agree, but it is too bad because it "feels" like the market should be in better shape if one takes out these types of extra factors....
Really? The S&P500 total return is ~30% since November 2016. What should it be?
Trees, meet forest.
So you are saying that most of that 30% rise is due to trade policies, not fundamentals? Go 'trade policies'! (actually, I'm not a fan of tariffs in general, but the entire situation is far more complex than that, I think)
-ERD50
Not saying that.
Saying that the Current markets' potential is being held back by trade policies,etc.
21/24 * (8 + 8) = 14%really? The s&p500 total return is ~30% since november 2016. What should it be?
Trees, meet forest.
21/24 * (8 + 8) = 14%
https://www.wsj.com/articles/german...ar-import-tariffs-1529492027?mod=hp_lead_pos3
Germany offers to scrap 10 % Tax on US autos and the 2.5% duty if the new tariff is stopped. Isn't this what free trade is all about?