Ukraine

[Major Tom]

When people are faced with impending danger which they cannot do anything about, a common reaction is to dismiss or play it down.

Absolutely. Furthermore, people actually living in the midst of war will often do everything they can to maintain normal everyday life and routines. It's a natural defense. When all around is toppling, we need a semblance of normality to hang onto.

 

[tmm99]

When people are faced with impending danger which they cannot do anything about, a common reaction is to dismiss or play it down.

It's either that, or the impact isn't really felt deep within the country. I will have to talk to him to find out what he thinks of the situation now, but he said his wife's family is a farmer living in a rural area with very few people around. It's quite possible that their lives wouldn't change much despite what's happening. I imagine being self-sufficient food-wise is probably a big deal in a time like this.

 

[ivinsfan]

It's either that, or the impact isn't really felt deep within the country. I will have to talk to him to find out what he thinks of the situation now, but he said his wife's family is a farmer living in a rural area with very few people around. It's quite possible that their lives wouldn't change much despite what's happening. I imagine being self-sufficient food-wise is probably a big deal in a time like this.

Why do people assume farmers are self-sufficient food wise? How you ever tried to eat an ear of field corn? Ukraine is a big producer of bulk commodities.

 

[NW-Bound]

I would think that ongoing large scale hostilities would be a big strain on the Russian economy. But, what do I know.

https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php

When a ruler does not care about people, his own and also foreigners, he uses the hardship to deflect blame onto outsiders, steer his countrymen towards the path he wants, and solidify his support.

This scheme is played out time and time again in history.

 

[tmm99]

Why do people assume farmers are self-sufficient food wise? How you ever tried to eat an ear of field corn? Ukraine is a big producer of bulk commodities.

That's what he told me. There was no reason for me to doubt what he said. I don't know if they grow things for themselves or what, I have no idea. I know for sure they have some kind of apple orchard, but I know for sure they don't sell their apples (as he told me they're full of bugs like my apples when I gave him a big bag of them.) That's all I know.

 

[Sunset]

A big issue, is of course Ukraine being taken over.
A bigger issue is, the same logic applies to a number of other countries that were at one time part of or friendly to USSR.

We better have more than 3K in troops in the surrounding countries, getting ready, as the 150+K Russian troops will be next door with nothing to do in X weeks/months, except await new orders.

 

[ivinsfan]

That's what he told me. There was no reason for me to doubt what he said.

Some small stakeholder do the chicken, garden, pig raising way of life. But farmers as a group get their food from outside sources.

 

[Ian S]

At least Putin didn't have much success putting together a false flag operation to lend some legitimacy to his naked aggression. If he wanted to weaken NATO, I think he has miscalculated: both Sweden and Finland are talking about joining it.

 

[ivinsfan]

A big issue, is of course Ukraine being taken over.
A bigger issue is, the same logic applies to a number of other countries that were at one time part of or friendly to USSR.

We better have more than 3K in troops in the surrounding countries, getting ready, as the 150+K Russian troops will be next door with nothing to do in X weeks/months, except await new orders.

Who do we mean by we.

 

[tmm99]

I heard that the Russian market tanked 50% from the record high yesterday. I wonder what kind of impact (if any) that will have...? Does anybody think that might curve their enthusiasm to invade further?

 

[Dalmore]

I pray that China doesn't move on Taiwan, while we are reeling from this. What devastation!

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Markola]

The sad part is we could do it and we won't.

Please share your proposal for discontinuing private U.S. corporations’ sale of petroleum products abroad.

 

[Aerides]

Please share your proposal for discontinuing private U.S. corporations’ sale of petroleum products abroad.

How about not? That's just adding arguments to the already-contentious discussion.

 

[ivinsfan]

How about not? That's just adding arguments to the already-contentious discussion.

Or go start another thread about energy.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

A big issue, is of course Ukraine being taken over.
A bigger issue is, the same logic applies to a number of other countries that were at one time part of or friendly to USSR.

We better have more than 3K in troops in the surrounding countries, getting ready, as the 150+K Russian troops will be next door with nothing to do in X weeks/months, except await new orders.

We don't need to assemble large masses of troops for this. There is plenty of air power that can be summoned to summarily deal with them.

 

[pb4uski]

I wish that 6 weeks ago when Russia was rattling it's sabers that NATO had issued Ukraine an invitation to join NATO.

 

[aja8888]

Canada was already doing it, meaning taking the tar from the sand. The problem is how to export it.

They need a pipeline going south to the US refineries, or one going west towards the Pacific Ocean to export. Both projects ran into opposition.

There are already crude pipelines in service from Alberta to the U.S. via Enbridge'e facilities in Superior, Wisconsin. I have worked on that system. The lines head south to the south side of Chicago and then branch off as Line 59 going southwest to Wyoming (Enbridge's Cushing Terminal). Then from there the crude can go to a number of large refineries. These lines can also flow into other line heading to the Gulf.

Canada sends crude long Enbridge pipelines going east from Superior to the UP of Michigan and down through Michigan and east (called the Laakehead system)

Enbridge has no system of pipelines going west to the West coast as that project has been stalled several times.

 

[tulak]

I wish that 6 weeks ago when Russia was rattling it's sabers that NATO had issued Ukraine an invitation to join NATO.

Too dangerous. This would have made the invasion of Ukraine popular with Russians and confirm what Putin has been saying the entire time, that Ukraine is controlled by the West and they need to be liberated.

Unfortunately Russia will be economically supported by China. That might limit how much harm we can apply, but I’d be going after all the wealthy Russians and their assets in the west. If his supporters start feeling pain, maybe they’ll be less inclined to support him?

Not sure what Putin’s endgame is, but I’m guessing it’s a pro-Russian government in Ukraine and he’ll probably keep the eastern parts.

What I wonder is how he’ll maintain control?

It’s easy to invade a country, a lot harder to maintain control of that country and still have it be “independent.”

I am curious to see how much resistance we see from Ukrainians. I feel for them and wish them all the best.

 

[Qs Laptop]

At least Putin didn't have much success putting together a false flag operation to lend some legitimacy to his naked aggression. If he wanted to weaken NATO, I think he has miscalculated: both Sweden and Finland are talking about joining it.

Still, it's amazing that despots continually play the card that "the people in the neighboring country need us to invade and help them escape the oppression of the current government". Or "that's historically been our territory and it's populated by people from our country." Used by:

Hitler, when Nazis marched into Austria (Anschluss.)
Hitler, when entering the Sudetenland, and eventually Czechoslovakia.
Stalin, when the USSR invaded Poland.
Saddam Hussein when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

 

[6miths]

I spent several months in Ukraine between 2004 and 2007 on a project that took me all over the country including much time in Donetsk. Made many friends there and am still in touch with several. Personally, I didn't think the Putin would invade and most of them are also shocked but they have lived with uncertainty for some time and those in the Donbass were less surprised it seems. My thoughts are with them.

 

[tulak]

Stalin, when the USSR invaded Poland.

I agree with your post, with a minor correction.

Even though USSR invaded Poland, it was during WW2, so I don’t think that counts.

What you left out was the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the USSR in 1968. That was to “liberate” Czechoslovaks from reforms they were pursuing that weren’t pro-communist.

The invasion was done by the Warsaw Pact Nations to give it legitimacy. Many of the troops believed they were doing the right thing: saving Czechoslovakia from a government out of control. It’s not that different than what we are seeing today with Ukraine (IMO) with many of the same justifications.

History does have a tendency to repeat itself.

 

[Scrumhalf]

Pipelines

There are already crude pipelines in service from Alberta to the U.S. via Enbridge'e facilities in Superior, Wisconsin. I have worked on that system. The lines head south to the south side of Chicago and then branch off as Line 59 going southwest to Wyoming (Enbridge's Cushing Terminal). Then from there the crude can go to a number of large refineries. These lines can also flow into other line heading to the Gulf.

Canada sends crude long Enbridge pipelines going east from Superior to the UP of Michigan and down through Michigan and east (called the Laakehead system)

Enbridge has no system of pipelines going west to the West coast as that project has been stalled several times.

There IS a pipeline system in operation carrying oil westwards from Alberta to the BC coast near Vancouver.
The delay mentioned above is for the project underway to double that pipeline's capacity. That Enbridge pipeline was purchased by the Canadian Government to facilitate its construction and mitigate the cost to Enbridge from all the delays.
There was also a pipeline planned from Alberta to the Northern BC coast near Prince Rupert — but that was terminated because of insufficient consultation.

 

[aja8888]

There IS a pipeline system in operation carrying oil westwards from Alberta to the BC coast near Vancouver.
The delay mentioned above is for the project underway to double that pipeline's capacity. That Enbridge pipeline was purchased by the Canadian Government to facilitate its construction and mitigate the cost to Enbridge from all the delays.
There was also a pipeline planned from Alberta to the Northern BC coast near Prince Rupert — but that was terminated because of insufficient consultation.

Yes, correct, I forgot that the Enbridge project was bought by the government. Too many Indian lands along the way from what I can remember.

 

[Markola]

Now that the US is energy-independent, we and other net exporters are going to need to really step up our exports to meaningfully help our European allies, as they try to wean themselves from Russian energy dependence. This is strategic geopolitics and is not charity. It is business. And it means that everyone in the world will be paying more for gas and oil, and I’m not sure how long consumers will be understanding.

“In 2020, the United States exported about 8.50 MMb/d of petroleum to about 174 countries and 4 U.S. territories. Crude oil exports of about 3.21 MMb/d accounted for 38% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports in 2020. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -0.63 MMb/d in 2020, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 0.63 MMb/d in 2020.”

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

 

[Qs Laptop]

I agree with your post, with a minor correction.

Even though USSR invaded Poland, it was during WW2, so I don’t think that counts.

Part of the rationale that the USSR gave for invading Poland was to protect eastern Poland from the Nazi invaders. The reality was probably more along the lines that they didn't want the Nazi's to get the whole country and wanted some for themselves. I see your point, though.

What you left out was the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the USSR in 1968. That was to “liberate” Czechoslovaks from reforms they were pursuing that weren’t pro-communist.

The invasion was done by the Warsaw Pact Nations to give it legitimacy. Many of the troops believed they were doing the right thing: saving Czechoslovakia from a government out of control.

<Slaps forehead> Can't believe I missed that one.

Do I dare suggest the US "invasion" of Grenada was somewhat along the lines of saving the country from internal enemies? Nah, won't go there.

History does have a tendency to repeat itself.

Indeed.