Updates on COVID 19

[NW-Bound]

I don't have much to say on this topic anymore. But when I visit this forum, I do read through to see what other people say.

The way I look at it, if a poster is still posting, he/she stays alive. And that by itself is good.

 

[Bamaman]

And to think we're going to go to Georgia's Blue Ridge Mountains next week to camp in our RV.

What's nice is that you cannot catch COROVID 19 from black bears. And we have two pools to swim in which means we can keep our Social Distancing.

 

[Montecfo]

The latest NY graphs:

I do applaud the progress. But I can't help but be reminded a bit of something former DC Mayor for Life Marion Barry once said, paraphrased as "crime in DC is not that bad, except for the murders."

 

[audreyh1]

The latest NY graphs:

I have to say what NY accomplished and continues to accomplish is very impressive and gives me some hope.

 

[jim584672]

I do applaud the progress. But I can't help but be reminded a bit of something former DC Mayor for Life Marion Barry once said, paraphrased as "crime in DC is not that bad, except for the murders."

Don't know what you mean. Considering NY is a main transport hub we got the virus first, and NY is high density so it exploded. Considering the other states had warning from seeing NY, yet didn't take things seriously, to me is astonishing. Poor leadership from the top.

 

[Montecfo]

Don't know what you mean. Considering NY is a main transport hub we got the virus first, and NY is high density so it exploded. Considering the other states had warning from seeing NY, yet didn't take things seriously, to me is astonishing. Poor leadership from the top.

First coronavirus case in New York was about 40 days after it appeared in Washington state.

It is difficult, in my opinion, to make the case that NY did a good job containing it, given the death count and the stunning nursing home deaths. I guess you could say it recovered from devastating mistakes since then.

I think the Barry quote, touting "low crime" while minimizing the important element provides somewhat of a parallel.

Again, I am not saying NY has done a bad job since. I just think it provides more a cautionary tale than a model to emulate.

 

[jim584672]

NY shows that this thing is beatable, and how to beat it. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[vince]

First coronavirus case in New York was about 40 days after it appeared in Washington state.

It is difficult, in my opinion, to make the case that NY did a good job containing it, given the death count and the stunning nursing home deaths. I guess you could say it recovered from devastating mistakes since then.

I think the Barry quote, touting "low crime" while minimizing the important element provides somewhat of a parallel.

Again, I am not saying NY has done a bad job since. I just think it provides more a cautionary tale than a model to emulate.

Hind sight is always 20/20.
And you do realize New York is a state as well as a city, right?

 

[Montecfo]

Just saying in the "race among the states" I kind of doubt any state will eclipse the death count in NY/NJ.

None of the recently discussed "hotspots" is anywhere close, and that is a good thing.

 

[Corporateburnout]

Good news. It looks like FL cases and deaths have been cut by half in the last couple of days. That's encouraging.

 

[Aerides]

Good news. It looks like FL cases and deaths have been cut by half in the last couple of days. That's encouraging.

uh no, that's the weekend effect plus the shutdown of most testing sites friday-sun due to the storm.

 

[audreyh1]

Good news. It looks like FL cases and deaths have been cut by half in the last couple of days. That's encouraging.

Testing sites were shut down for 4 days due to the storm.

 

[brewer12345]

Good news. It looks like FL cases and deaths have been cut by half in the last couple of days. That's encouraging.

Hilarious!

 

[Dtail]

Hilarious!

Yeah, I mentioned this last week in a Thursday post and you stated that I should have put in the "Good News" thread.
Let's see the numbers for the rest of the week.

 

[donheff]

South Dakota is lining up to make a break forward in the race. Sturgis, SD is hosting a quarter million bikers starting this weekend. Now there is a helthy, young, immune population.

 

[Ronstar]

The Race Between the States

Yes, but most of the bikers are from out of state and probably won’t have symptoms and get tested until they get home.

Besides, the level of alcohol and frivolity may present an immunity anyway

 

[braumeister]

Now there is a healthy, young, immune population.

Actually, the Sturgis rally is not what it used to be. Increasingly inclusive of older, wealthier bikers, which is part of the reason the city wants to keep them coming. Hundreds of millions of dollars every year during the rally.

 

[audreyh1]

South Dakota is lining up to make a break forward in the race. Sturgis, SD is hosting a quarter million bikers starting this weekend. Now there is a helthy, young, immune population.

Wow! - about the 1/4 million gathering!

 

[donheff]

Actually, the Sturgis rally is not what it used to be. Increasingly inclusive of older, wealthier bikers, which is part of the reason the city wants to keep them coming. Hundreds of millions of dollars every year during the rally.

I had my tongue firmly in my cheek about a healthy, young group. I have enjoyed watching Rolling Thunder roll thru town over the years. A good proportion of them are from my creaky old generation. Just the type who should avoid Sturgis like the plague.

 

[brewer12345]

Yeah, I mentioned this last week in a Thursday post and you stated that I should have put in the "Good News" thread.
Let's see the numbers for the rest of the week.

Rest of the month.

The board booster will take a bit of their substance of choice and crow over the rotten egg they laid of rancid data.

 

[rk911]

^^^

+1

+2!

 

[brewer12345]

Actually, the Sturgis rally is not what it used to be. Increasingly inclusive of older, wealthier bikers, which is part of the reason the city wants to keep them coming. Hundreds of millions of dollars every year during the rally.

I am a lot more used to seeing fat, old, suburban bikers on 25k bikes than young guys.

 

[JDARNELL]

I’ll be attending the rally this year. Watching the Sturgis FB groups people are on their way from all over the country. A lot of first time attendees.

 

[teetee]

One thing I noticed that's interesting, is that while these new states are on track to topple the champs in total cases (and even cases per population), the death rate is much, much lower in these up-and-comers.

I wonder if that's because the virus is mutating, and becoming less deadly? Or is it just because now it's mostly younger, healthier people who are catching it, while the old/sick/vulnerable are taking better precautions? Or, is it simply a function of more widespread testing?

No it's because there is a time lag (three to four weeks) between the the spikes of newly infected cases and the death toll. And the spike of death toll happens mostly after the hospitals are overrun.

When there's a spike of new daily infected cases we are already a month late on controlling the spread. However the healthcare workers nightmares start after that.

It is difficult for human to make the projection based on the snapshot of the data. It gets easier if you think it by the order of event occurrence then give it a time frame for each step. Some patients would take only a few days to die, but most of them will last a coue of weeks with the ventilator's assistance. But once we run out of ventilators, it is a draw on who stay in the hospital and who go home and wait for the virus to run its course.

 

[Montecfo]

No it's because there is a time lag (three to four weeks) between the the spikes of newly infected cases and the death toll. And the spike of death toll happens mostly after the hospitals are overrun.

When there's a spike of new daily infected cases we are already a month late on controlling the spread. However the healthcare workers nightmares start after that.

It is difficult for human to make the projection based on the snapshot of the data. It gets easier if you think it by the order of event occurrence then give it a time frame for each step. Some patients would take only a few days to die, but most of them will last a coue of weeks with the ventilator's assistance. But once we run out of ventilators, it is a draw on who stay in the hospital and who go home and wait for the virus to run its course.

The largest reason is demographics. States are doing a better job of keeping Covid out of nursing homes and especially avoiding the disasters of New York et al who put sick people back in nursing homes. And all the stats show the latest cohort consists.of.younger folks on average.

Secondly, treatment protocols have improved with Math+, remdesivir etc. So people are not staying sick as long and fewer passing.

Thirdly, using oxygen instead of ventilators.