For what its worth, this is what was sent out to my local (north GA) friends and family.
Its a bit dated as it was sent about a week ago:
Think this time i will start with the world as a whole and drill down eventually to Cobb and Cherokee counties.
There have been a lot of changes and also a lot of media commentary, some of it I suspect misleading.
For the entire world, the number of daily new cases is holding steady, for the past 3 weeks at about 280,000.
And there have been, from the beginning of the pandemic, so for about all of the last six months, 2738 cases total for every million people on planet earth,
So for the average human presently on earth, whoever that is, the chances of getting this thing is about 1 in 365..
Of course, like for all other ills be it crime or natural disaster, some places are more dangerous than others.
Looking at just the top ten countries in terms of the likelihood of getting COVID19, Qatar in the Middle East is the country where one is in the most danger, with a chance of 1 in 25.
The USA is in eighth place, with a chance of 1 in 60.
Of the rest of the top ten, one is in Europe, 3 more in the Middle East, 3 in South America, and 1 in Central America.
Italy, once a tremendous hotspot, now ranks 54th.
Lethality, if one does get the disease, is another thing altogether.
The number of world wide daily new deaths hit a peak back in late April at about 7000. per day.
It dropped off quickly from there to 4200 in early June, but has been slowly going back up again.
And is now at 5800. daily for the past week or so.
And there have been, from the beginning of the pandemic, so for about all of the last six months, 98 deaths total for every million people on planet earth,
So for the average human presently on earth, whoever that is, the chances of dying from this thing is about 1 in 10200.
As with cases, again, some places are more deadly than others, but such places are different.
The tiny principality of San Marino is where one is most likely to die of COVID19, with a chance of 1 in 800.
The USA is in 10th place, with a chance of 1 in 1930.
Of the other 8 countries in the top ten for lethality, 6 are in Western Europe and 2 in South America.
A comparison with the 1957-58 pandemic in the USA might be in order here, since its a number I have been keeping in my head for some time (source is the CDC).
In that pandemic, which was an Asian flu pandemic, the chance of dying in the USA was 1 in 1608, so back then was more deadly so far than what we are going through now,
The chart below is about a week old, but its the latest in my tabulations.
Both cases and deaths have gone up about 10% from the total below in that time, but the relative rankings and percentage fatalities are the same.
The takeaway is that Europe is about as deadly as ever, but the USA (Canada still high) has cut its lethality in half since the height back in April.
Note as of 9 pm on 8/6/2020
REGION cases to date deaths to date percent deaths
North America 5,150,753 171,772 3.3
South America 4,541,991 154,805 3.4
South Asia 2,886,105 60552 2.1
Western Europe 1,723,385 179,398 10.4
Middle East 1,453,772 34,966 2.4
Africa 1011867 22114 2.2
Russia 871,894 14,606 1.7
Central America 671139 55652 8.3
Eastern Europe 466,263 12515 2.7
Near China 271,745 3,835 1.4
Caribbean 90717 1615 1.8
China 84,528 4,634 5.5
Greater Austrailia 29,866 371 1.2
TOTALS 19,254,025 716,835 3.7
Before I get into the USA in more detail a few thoughts.
1) No one, except those of us who got sick with it back in 1957-58 or had family who did, even remembers that pandemic.
Yet it was deadlier. This says something positive about our resiliency and also something cautionary about our lack of an accurate collective memory.
2) Comparisons with earlier pandemics may have limited value because they were flu pandemics and this is a corona virus. Time will tell.
3) If the comparison is a useful one, as i hope it is, we are about halfway through this, as both 1957-58 and 1918-19 lasted about a year each.
In the USA as a whole we hit our peak in mid July at 68000, new cases per day, which was a rapid increase from our prior peak at about 30000,
which lasted from April until mid June when it rose in only a month to the 68000. mark.
We have slowly dropped back down to about 54000. for the past week or so.
Daily new deaths peaked in April at about 2700 briefly and then dropped down to about 800 in June,
then rising more slowly to about 1250 this week.
California now has the most cases at about 11% of the total in the country.
The top four states in terms of number of cases, CA. FL. TX and NY represent 40% of the total in the country.
GA is now fifth,.which is a significant move up from our 8th position a month ago.
But, there is quite a drop off after the top 4, GA has only 4% of the total in the country,
or about half of NY which is now fourth.
A fairer comparison, as with the world as a whole previously described, is to account for population.
I previously stated the chance of getting COVID19 in the USA as a whole is 1 in 60
Thats an avg for the whole nation.
The state where the risk is highest was for a very long time NY.
That is no longer the case.
Louisiana now has the most risk at 1 in 34
AZ and FL at 1 in 38 each.
MISS and NY at 1 in 43 each.
GA, AL, and NJ at 1 in 46 each.
SC. NV, RI, TN at 1 in 51 each.
TX, DC, MA at 1 in 54 each.
ARK, DL at 1 in 59 each.
A comment before I move on to lethality, which is another story just as it was in the world as a whole.
Now that we are 6 months into this, the pandemic seems to me to have taken on an air of inevitability.
Despite all efforts laudable as they are, and i believe effective (aside from the disaster in nursing homes in northeast states especially)
in at least protecting the most vulnerable, this disease like most such evils, simply is going to run its course and spread more widely,
as this list of states with rates higher than the avg shows.
It is a much larger list than the half dozen or even less hard hit ones we were dealing with just six weeks or so ago.
NY continues as it has from the beginning, to lead in total deaths at nearly 33000.
This is more than twice that of the second place state, NJ at about 16000.
The top four states in terms of number of deaths, NY. NJ. CA and TX represent 41% of the total in the country.
The next five states FL, MA IL, PN, MI represent 23% of the total in the country.
GA is now tenth,.which is a significant move up from our 14th position a month ago.
But, there is quite a drop off after the top 9, GA has 3% of the total deaths in the country,
or about 2/3 of Michigan which is now ninth.
A fairer comparison, as with the world as a whole previously described, is to account for population.
I previously stated the chance of dying from COVID19 in the USA as a whole is 1 in 1930
Thats an avg for the whole nation.
The state where the risk is highest is NJ at 1 in 560.
NY is a close second at 1 in 590
MA and CT at 1 in 800 each.
RI and LA at 1 in 1040 each.
District of Columbia at 1 in 1190 each. ( I know not yet a state )
MISS, MI, IL at 1 in 1500 each.
DL, MD, AZ, PN at 1 in 1700 each.
IN at 1 in 2150 each. thus IN is safer from death than the nation as a whole
GA, SC, FL at 1 in 2320, thus GA, SC, FL are abouth 20% safer from death than the nation as a whole.
Before i jump into our local counties, one additional note on deaths in GA as a state.
Much has been made of a recent one day spike in deaths in the state, reported as being as much as 137 on Tuesday I believe.
The actual dept of health number for Tuesday was 122, which is indeed a new high, surpassing the past one day high of 119 set back in April.
The next days numbers were all lower with Friday's down to 35.
The 137 number included deaths that occurred earlier but reported on Tuesday and not moved to their actual date until a day or so later.
So while it was understandable for the excited journalist (I'm being kind I hope) to annouce
"137 deaths reported today" it was unfortunate that the word reported was not explained fully.
What this all means we will only know going forward. It saddens and concerns me that we set a new high, albeit slightly.
But if one looks at the maps for the early days of this week, as i happened to be doing early on Tuesday,
there appears to be a local hotspot that developed in counties on the SC border in the weeks leading up to Tuesday.
Hopefully the cause has been tracked and controlled by now. The fewer deaths since Tuesday give support to that hope.
Fulton, Gwinnett and Dekalb counties have 33% of the cases in GA, which is about what they have had for a while now.
Cobb and Cherokee together moved up to 8% (was 7% a month ago, but was also 8% a week or so before that, so not too worrisome yet).
Hall and Chatham counties 3% each
7 other counties scatterred throughout the state have 2% each
31 with 1%
117 counties with 1/2 of 1% or less, many much less.
Fulton, Gwinnett and Dekalb counties have 24% of the deaths in GA, which is also about what they have had for a while now.
Cobb and Cherokee together moved down to under 9% (8.7) (was 10% a month ago).
Dougherty has 4%
Clayton has 3%
6 counties with 2%
the rest much less
In Cherokee County, 66 people have died so far in the last six months from COVID19
15 were 90 or older
3 were 89
2 were 88
3 were 87
3 were 86
1 was 85
1 was 84
5 were 83
1 was 82
3 were 81
3 were 80
1 was 79
4 were 78
2 were 77
1 was 75
2 were 74
2 were 73
4 were 69
2 were 68
2 were 67
1 was 64
1 was 58
1 was 51
1 was 47
1 was 40
1 was 36
all but 5 were listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
of these five, 1 was 68, 1 was 74 and 3 were 90 or older
In Cobb County, 334 people have died so far in the last six months from COVID19
57 were 90 or older, with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
35 were between 86 and 89 with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
60 were between 80 and 85 with all but 4 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
42 were between 76 and 79 with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
64 were between 70 and 75 with all but 6 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
17 were between 66 and 69 with all but 1 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
20 were between 60 and 65 with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
7 were between 56 and 59 with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
12 were between 50 and 55 with all but 1 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
3 were between 46 and 49 with all but 1 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
6 were between 40 and 45 with all but 2 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
3 were between 36 and 39 with all listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
4 were between 30 and 35 with all listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
3 were between 26 and 29 with all but 1 listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
1 was 19 and listed as having comorbodities which were not defined
