Since the Genworth LTC thread is unavailable and I had a thought to share on self-insuring for LTC, I decided to bump this thread.
According to the American Association of Long-Term Care Insurance website (
http://www.aaltci.org/long-term-care-insurance/learning-center/probability-long-term-care.php):
So, if you ignore the less than 3 months above, the expected length of stay is about 2.13 years.... I'll round that up to 2.5 years to be conservative. At $85k/year (the average annual cost in my area) the expected value of claims is ~$74k (2.5 years * $85k a year * 35% chance of making a claim).
Worst case, assuming a 100% chance of a 7.5 year stay is $638k. Best case is $0.
I can afford the worst case though it wouldn't be easy but I just don't see the value of LTC insurance when I can self-insure.