MarcJoli
Dryer sheet wannabe
Now that inflation is coming down, what are your Spreadsheet Inflation assumptions for inflation in the coming year, rest of the decade, and long term?
In my opinion, we are not likely to go back to the lowflation from the last decade due to structural changes in our economy the last few years:
This chart shows the decade of the 70's and how there were big cycles in inflation in the the 70's that averaged 7% over that period.
So, if our inflation will stabilize at a new level, what level will that be? What do you plug into your spreadsheets? What are your guesstimates? Here are my guesses:
End of 2024: 2.0%
Rest of the Decade: 3.5%
Avg for the 2030's decade: 4.0%
Please share what numbers are you using and why?
In my opinion, we are not likely to go back to the lowflation from the last decade due to structural changes in our economy the last few years:
- Raises in minimum wages
- Labor union actions
- Reshoring of some supply chains
- Geopolitical split between the G10 and the BRICS reversing previous globalization trends.
- demographic changes in China and Japan (fewer workers)
- Labor hoarding (no layoffs)
- Low unemployment, hard to find good workers.
- Red Sea and Panama Canal shipping and general security at sea. Will the US be willing to provide security for all?
This chart shows the decade of the 70's and how there were big cycles in inflation in the the 70's that averaged 7% over that period.
So, if our inflation will stabilize at a new level, what level will that be? What do you plug into your spreadsheets? What are your guesstimates? Here are my guesses:
End of 2024: 2.0%
Rest of the Decade: 3.5%
Avg for the 2030's decade: 4.0%
Please share what numbers are you using and why?