Hi. I am using a retirement calculator to help me assess the amount of money I will need in my investment portfolio in order to FIRE with a certain degree of success.
So I have rates of return and standard deviations for different asset allocations (60% stock/40% bond, etc.). One set of data covers 1964-2013 (50 years) and the other set of data covers 1928-2013 (86 years).
The 50 year data set gives me much better probability of success than does the 86 years data set.
Do you think one data set in more predictive of future rates of return and standard deviations than another? Of course I would like to use the 50 year data set, but if it not the most representative choice, then I will need to go with the 86 year data set.
Thank you for your advice.
So I have rates of return and standard deviations for different asset allocations (60% stock/40% bond, etc.). One set of data covers 1964-2013 (50 years) and the other set of data covers 1928-2013 (86 years).
The 50 year data set gives me much better probability of success than does the 86 years data set.
Do you think one data set in more predictive of future rates of return and standard deviations than another? Of course I would like to use the 50 year data set, but if it not the most representative choice, then I will need to go with the 86 year data set.
Thank you for your advice.