Who FIREd the Earliest with the Lowest FIRE Score and Why You Did?

[HI Bill]

Right. I think Monte Carlo "experts" even say 80% is fine. I wanted to go to 100% in case of something cataclysmic happening, which is a very very low possibility, but still.

I'm not sure than 100% will help with cataclysmic events. In risk management, there's a concept that you can manage 95% of risk easily (and inexpensively). It's the last 5% that gets very expensive. For the UHNW (ultra high net worth) individuals, you can manage virtually all non-health-related risks by obtaining multiple citizenships, holding assets in multiple countries, and having a broad diversification including a gold stash. And have that private jet on standby. Still, one supervolcano eruption, or one nuclear bomb goes off in the wrong place, and your plans didn't protect you!

 

[Dtail]

Right. I think Monte Carlo "experts" even say 80% is fine. I wanted to go to 100% in case of something cataclysmic happening, which is a very very low possibility, but still.

A few pundits state that anything over 80% is fine.
Conceptually a Monte Carlo simulated score of 90 equalizes with a sequential historical score of 95 to 100.

 

[SecondCor521]

Interested to hear about how some are "pulling it off" and why they chose to go that route. And does the current inflation cause you to lose sleep at night?

Most people here, as you've seen by the replies already, are very conservative. Including me.

The folks at Bogleheads, as a group, are even more conservative.

The folks at MMM, as a group, are younger and some of them fall into the camp you're looking for. One person there IIRC chose to retire a few years ago in his 30s with a 6.5% WR, which is the historically 50/50 safe rate. He was aware of the risk, took a flyer, and it worked for him.

I think if you're aware of the risks and are flexible and willing and able to go back to work if it doesn't work out, then it's a decent strategy. One I might have considered had I found myself in those shoes. Most here and at Bogleheads are probably an older demographic and, again, more conservative, so are not willing or able to take such a flyer.

Another aspect is family. MMMers I think tend to be SINKs or DINKs. When I hit a 6.5% WR, I probably would have been in my late 30s and I had three kids, an ex wife, a child support payment, and a mortgage. Harder to take a flyer in that scenario.

You might try checking over at MMM and see if anyone there bites on your question.

 

[momoney]

The folks at MMM, as a group, are younger and some of them fall into the camp you're looking for.

I have to be honest that I wasn't even thinking of people in their 30s and 40s. I guess they are unicorns in my mind.

 

[Dtail]

I have to be honest that I wasn't even thinking of people in their 30s and 40s. I guess they are unicorns in my mind.

Well the average FIRE age on this forum is probably around 55 to 57.

 

[marko]

Interested to hear about how some are "pulling it off" and why they chose to go that route. And does the current inflation cause you to lose sleep at night?

After almost 20 years and two recessions (aka buying opportunities)...."inflation shminflation!"

 

[N02L84ER]

DH worked under contract his last 5 years. As he approached the end of a project just before his 45th birthday, he asked if I thought we had enough money for him to retire. I ran the numbers through Firecalc and it said historically we would have a just over 80% success rate if I included SS and it did not get cut to badly. I gave him the go ahead because he was really burned out. This was late 2005. I continued working, averaging around 2 weeks per year in 2006 and 2007. Then the Great Recession hit. For the next 4.25 years I ramped up my hours to 4 or 5 months per year, then I retired at age 52. We started with a 5.4% withdrawal rate in 2006 and last year our spend rate was 1.3%. It worked for us because I was able to ramp up my hours, otherwise, SORR would probably have sunk our retirement. Neither of us have filed for SS yet and neither of us have pensions. We are doing home improvements this year, so our spend rate will be much higher than last year. Inflation is not causing me to lose any sleep.

 

[Koolau]

DH worked under contract his last 5 years. As he approached the end of a project just before his 45th birthday, he asked if I thought we had enough money for him to retire. I ran the numbers through Firecalc and it said historically we would have a just over 80% success rate if I included SS and it did not get cut to badly. I gave him the go ahead because he was really burned out. This was late 2005. I continued working, averaging around 2 weeks per year in 2006 and 2007. Then the Great Recession hit. For the next 4.25 years I ramped up my hours to 4 or 5 months per year, then I retired at age 52. We started with a 5.4% withdrawal rate in 2006 and last year our spend rate was 1.3%. It worked for us because I was able to ramp up my hours, otherwise, SORR would probably have sunk our retirement. Neither of us have filed for SS yet and neither of us have pensions. We are doing home improvements this year, so our spend rate will be much higher than last year. Inflation is not causing me to lose any sleep.

Wow! And that includes 2008 time period. Way to go!

 

[Andre1969]

I'm still working, at the age of 54, and hoping to go out at 55. I think I've probably gone overkill with how much I've saved up, and could probably have retired a couple years ago. But I fell into the OMY (One More Year) Syndrome trap. It's just that the job is easy, flexible, and fairly low stress (although it does annoy me from time to time)

FireCalc gives me a 100% chance of success, at the annual rate I think I'll be comfortable with. And the annual rate I've picked is well above my current take-home pay, and I have trouble even spending that!

Even bumping up my annual withdrawal rate by 50%, I'm still at 99.1% success, and at 62.5% above, I'm at 94.4%. I didn't bother calculating any annual withdrawal rates any higher than that, because I can't imagine spending that much money. At least, not consistently.

As for inflation, I do worry about it, and gripe about it from time to time, but it doesn't keep me up at night. The big things that have jumped lately are homeowner's insurance, electricity, and groceries. Well, and gasoline. But, those are relatively minor expenses overall. I locked into a 30 year fixed mortgage at 2.875% back in 2020, so my mortgage is fairly low, especially by today's standards. So I'm set, on the housing front, which is a good thing. If I was in the market for a home, I think I'd be worried.

Cars are expensive, but I think adjusted for inflation, they're really not that bad when you factor in all the standard equipment and technological advances. And, I don't see myself needing a new car anytime soon.

As for that "retired, broke, or dead" calculator, I have a feeling I'll be one of those who ends up with "too much" money, if there is such a thing, when I do finally kick off, but right now I feel comfortable with it. And I'd rather have too much, than not enough!

 

[SecondCor521]

Wow! And that includes 2008 time period. Way to go!

Working in 2008/2009 and investing then helped a lot. I started a new better-paying job in 2009 and was saving maybe 50% of my salary into retirement. A quick check shows the S&P was around 1000 back in 2009, and it's now around 5300. 5x+ on those dollars is nice.

 

[Montecfo]

Most of us very conservative folks FIRED way later than we could have. I assumed SS would be zero and I stayed working too long give in accumulated assets.

Too much is better than too little I guess. And we won't know the final tally until later.

 

[upupandaway]

Here is a podcast of someone that came into a windfall from a startup and retired very early. He is not wealthy but his annual wothdrawl is low. He is clueless of how all this works but if you were interested in what it looks like here you go. Link

 

[ShadowBloom]

Yeah, I couldn’t have pulled the trigger at less than 100% probability and even with that, I had extra conservativeness built in.

I felt the same way before I got laid off at 49 and decided I was done. Firecalc gave me 85-95% success depending on assumptions. That was in 2014, so coming up on 10 years, and now Firecalc gives 100% success with almost any assumptions, so it's worked out so far. I did some freelance work until a year or so ago, but at most made 25% of my final salary. I do still worry, a bit more than I'd like, but that's more my personality than response to real risk. I live in an expensive metro area, and moving to a lower cost location remains my fallback option if things turn bad.

 

[dixonge]

We are SIRE (a term I literally JUST NOW saw for the first time) but we also quit our jobs in 2011, six years before eligible to begin taking a pension. We had saved up a lot of money (relatively speaking) and spent one year camping around the U.S. then moved to Mexico. Had to go back to work 2015-2017 (two years) and when I vested in my pension the wife was able to begin taking hers. So then we *technically* retired. We now have two pensions (non-COLA) and two SS incomes and are contributing as much as possible to our investments (which are now about 2x what they were in 2011). The investments are mainly for general security and also to give ourselves a 'self-COLA' for the pensions.

 

[GravitySucks]

My first calculated run gave me about an 80% success for 30 years at 54 years old.
My boss called a week later and said how upset he was about have to let one of my coworkers go. I volunteered to go. Adding her projects to my own would have been very unpleasant.

It was a lean fire but has grown to be quite comfortable.

 

[Major Tom]

After looking at the "death curve" on engaging data, I wonder how many people wished they would have been less conservative.

Probably not many because, by our very nature, we're financially conservative!

 

[pjigar]

Being a belt, suspenders, velcro and safety pins kind of guy, that wouldn't have been me.

Isn't that a dominant trait for a lot of FIRE planners? I know I am one of those guy who wants more than 100% success rate (if there is such a thing).

 

[momoney]

I felt the same way before I got laid off at 49 and decided I was done. Firecalc gave me 85-95% success depending on assumptions. That was in 2014, so coming up on 10 years, and now Firecalc gives 100% success with almost any assumptions, so it's worked out so far. I did some freelance work until a year or so ago, but at most made 25% of my final salary. I do still worry, a bit more than I'd like, but that's more my personality than response to real risk. I live in an expensive metro area, and moving to a lower cost location remains my fallback option if things turn bad.

I hear you on trying to replace your final salary. It's very hard to find a job in software, tech, web, design, etc. even at entry level pay for someone over 50 when you are competing with workers from around the world willing to work for a lot less. AI is only going to make it harder in my opinion.

 

[38Chevy454]

I'm another 100% er before I retired at 53. However, for the most part stock market got me here, and it will take me through retirement.

 

[Alex The Great]

Replacing my final salary in retirement would be purely impossible. But I never spent more than 20% of compensation (gross) during my career time (it did come to ~15% recently), may be excluding just a few first years. Retired at 56 with Firecalc to give 100% score (including SS) or 93% (without SS).

 

[NeilDH]

For those of you long retired, has it been true that you're spending has decreased with age, or started to at a certain point? Is Bernicke's Reality ... for real, for instance? (Spending starts declining as soon as age 56??)

 

[wallygator69]

Howdy,

I was 42 and DW was 43 retired in 2006. Have more $ than when we retired. Everyone thought we were nuts. No kids, No Debt. Always LBYM and still do. Before ACA we were getting killed with a high deductible Ins plan. ACA was the gift of the century. SS and 2 small pensions in 2 and 5 years will cover all our expenses and more.

Glad we did it when we did. But took Guts and some luck.

Wally

 

[DrRoy]

Not me. I was overfunded so DW would feel more comfortable with it.

 

[Dtail]

For those of you long retired, has it been true that you're spending has decreased with age, or started to at a certain point? Is Bernicke's Reality ... for real, for instance? (Spending starts declining as soon as age 56??)

We retired at age 57 and now at 64, our spending has increased a little.
If you look at the maximum spending allowed by Bernicke in Firecalc, I think it is way too aggressive.

 

[audreyh1]

We retired very early but was FatFIRE so not pushing any envelope. Otherwise we would have waited.