Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Freedom56]

I was trying to figure out California's big increase in cases/deaths. We have a m* mandate. We only partially reopened, then dialed some of that back (bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc).

Compliance is pretty poor in many part of Los Angeles County with massive parties going on at many homes. Orange County is going out of their way not to wear masks. This is not going to end well.

 

[MichaelB]

I was trying to figure out California's big increase in cases/deaths. We have a m* mandate. We only partially reopened, then dialed some of that back (bars, indoor dining, gyms, etc).

I find it troubling we really don’t understand the reason behind this surge in new cases. We have lots of narrative but no hard, systemic data. Contact tracing would help with that but there’s been no real effort to put that in place on a large scale.

 

[brewer12345]

I find it troubling we really don’t understand the reason behind this surge in new cases. We have lots of narrative but no hard, systemic data. Contact tracing would help with that but there’s been no real effort to put that in place on a large scale.

At this point the horse is out of the barn. Contact tracing of 10k confirmed cases a day in a state is impossible. Have to get it under control and try again when counts are small.

 

[Ronstar]

I find it troubling we really don’t understand the reason behind this surge in new cases. We have lots of narrative but no hard, systemic data. Contact tracing would help with that but there’s been no real effort to put that in place on a large scale.

This bugs me too. With 100’s of thousands of cases in this country, we have little or no information from these cases that tell us how and where the virus was contacted. By now we should have something more than wear a mask and stay more than 6’ from others.

 

[jcfradio]

At this point the horse is out of the barn. Contact tracing of 10k confirmed cases a day in a state is impossible. Have to get it under control and try again when counts are small.

You are correct. Once you have that many cases contact tracing is nigh impossible. We were successful in bringing the new case load down in our part of Ontario so that we had no new cases for about a month by early June. We then had three people get infected at a nail salon after it had re-opened in Phase 2, but the health authorities were able to contact trace and test and keep the outbreak to just 30 cases, and since then we have had only 1 new case in the past month. So it can work, but you need to put down the broad community spread first and this will take time and people doing the right things (actions which I think that most people on this board already know!).

 

[harllee]

My small town was having a surge of Covid cases over a couple of weeks among 20-30 year olds, some of which ended in the hospital. Contract tracing was done and found that most of the cases came from a restaurant that turned into a bar after hours and stayed open until 2 am. Bars are not suppose to be opened in my state. So the local leaders passed a resolution that no alcohol could be sold anywhere after 10 pm, that seems to have slowed the spread..

 

[Accidental Retiree]

Compliance is pretty poor in many part of Los Angeles County with massive parties going on at many homes. Orange County is going out of their way not to wear masks. This is not going to end well.

No masks to speak of in my neighborhood, in SW Riverside County, but the parties have been going on from the get-go.

Social distancing requires a little fancy footwork at times in the stores.

We just do not go out much, and when we do, we’re properly attired and pre- and post-sanitized.

 

[rodi]

Contact tracing here in San Diego is going on, to at least some extent... Which is why we keep flunking the metric of community outbreaks. 3 new ones announced yesterday tying back to a gym, and two restaurants. These community outbreaks must have occurred before they shut down gyms again last week.

But, like the rest of the country, our county is strictly limiting testing now due to shortages of testing resources... so we'll never get a good handle on it.

 

[travelover]

I find it troubling we really don’t understand the reason behind this surge in new cases. We have lots of narrative but no hard, systemic data. Contact tracing would help with that but there’s been no real effort to put that in place on a large scale.

I totally agree and mentioned this a while back, that with all the global empirical data, surely more methods of likely contagion could be identified. I was told that "I didn't know what I was talking about" by one of our more blowhard members.

 

[rodi]

I think we do understand the reasons for the surges... Complacency and denial.

People got complacent because the numbers were improving or low in their area... stopped taking precautions with the 3 w's (wear a m*, wash your hands, wait 6' apart). Or they were in denial. It gets old to have to be vigilant about physical space and m* wearing... People thought we were over this... and they were wrong.

Now even states that had lower numbers (hello Montana and West Virginia) are seeing rapid rises in cases.

So...everyone reading this - stop what you're doing and go wash your hands!

 

[6miths]

I think we do understand the reasons for the surges... Complacency and denial.

People got complacent because the numbers were improving or low in their area... stopped taking precautions with the 3 w's (wear a m*, wash your hands, wait 6' apart). Or they were in denial. It gets old to have to be vigilant about physical space and m* wearing... People thought we were over this... and they were wrong.

Now even states that had lower numbers (hello Montana and West Virginia) are seeing rapid rises in cases.

So...everyone reading this - stop what you're doing and go wash your hands!

+1

I don't think there is any mystery as to how this virus is mainly transmitted, just some questions around the edges. And many of these answers we don't know for viruses that we have been dealing with for much longer, some of which are much deadlier.

And of course, it seems that somehow in America, a mindless biological agent is personified to have political beliefs.

 

[retire-early]

This is a depressing prognostication issued by Michael Osterholm today.
He's the director for the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
If USA continues on 60K-70K new cases every day, it would take another year (!) to reach 50% infection of the entire population.
Lot's of human wood to burn.
So another year of hardship.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/video/dr-osterholm-another-year-of-covid-ahead-if-we-dont-change-our-ways/vi-BB16VPkZ

.

 

[ElizabethT]

If the word 'mask' has become a four letter word, even here at ER.org, then it would seem there really is no hope.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

If the word 'mask' has become a four letter word, even here at ER.org, then it would seem there really is no hope.

Only because folks thought it was political, that has changed. It is now associated with common sense.

 

[6miths]

Only because folks thought it was political, that has changed. It is now associated with common sense.

Common sense... I like that. And what do they say about it?

Though one must admit that waffling experts didn't help in the beginning.

 

[tb001]

I think we do understand the reasons for the surges... Complacency and denial.

People got complacent because the numbers were improving or low in their area... stopped taking precautions with the 3 w's (wear a m*, wash your hands, wait 6' apart). Or they were in denial. It gets old to have to be vigilant about physical space and m* wearing... People thought we were over this... and they were wrong.

Now even states that had lower numbers (hello Montana and West Virginia) are seeing rapid rises in cases.

So...everyone reading this - stop what you're doing and go wash your hands!

I think locally the restaurants and bars were a pretty major source of spread, when you look at where outbreaks have been occurring. But around grad time, we started seeing/hearing big parties in our neighborhood. Early to mid June I distinctly remember being in Costco and 1 of every 4 carts was filled with obvious party supplies. Not at all surprised we’re seeing a surge.

My only hope is that with indoor dining and bars shut down again and better mask compliance, we can get it back under control.

 

[donheff]

So...everyone reading this - stop what you're doing and go wash your hands!

+1 I was simultaneously browsing and playing with my cute but gross puppy when I read this. Covid, Giardia, ...

 

[Car-Guy]

Common sense... I like that. And what do they say about it?

Though one must admit that waffling experts didn't help in the beginning.

You think maybe the "waffling" was (at least in part) because you couldn't get any masks when they were saying that? And what masks were available were going to medical personnel.

To me wearing a mask always made "common sense". Although to be honest, I didn't get "religious" about it until it became a mandate. Now it's "almost" natural.

 

[CaptTom]

Though one must admit that waffling experts didn't help in the beginning.

It seems to me that the word "waffling" has been used as an excuse to dismiss expert advice.

The fact is, this was a "novel" virus. We (humans) had never seen it before, we had no immunity to it, and we didn't understand all the different nuances of how it behaved.

But we knew it was bad. Decisions had to be made, based on what we knew was incomplete information. In other words, best guesses. Maybe it would behave like other corona viruses. It was a starting point.

And after what happened with toilet paper, I don't blame them for asking people to avoid hoarding masks.

Only later did we learn that the primary vector of infection was through droplets expelled by asymptomatic people. It turns out masks really would significantly reduce the spread.

I don't call that "waffling" at all. I call it giving the best advice possible with the information available.

 

[audreyh1]

I find it troubling we really don’t understand the reason behind this surge in new cases. We have lots of narrative but no hard, systemic data. Contact tracing would help with that but there’s been no real effort to put that in place on a large scale.

I think Abbott’s office was getting pretty clear indications from various health departments that some outbreaks were tied to bars which is why he stated he regretted opening bars and immediately closed them.

Unfortunately, when cases explode, contact tracing will be inadequate. But still provides some info.

I also suspect extended family socializing and socializing with friends due pent up demand and unfortunately so many people thinking they had the green light and that the virus was over or not serious enough to bother.

No, no one has provided a breakdown of causes.

I think locally the restaurants and bars were a pretty major source of spread, when you look at where outbreaks have been occurring. But around grad time, we started seeing/hearing big parties in our neighborhood. Early to mid June I distinctly remember being in Costco and 1 of every 4 carts was filled with obvious party supplies. Not at all surprised we’re seeing a surge.

My only hope is that with indoor dining and bars shut down again and better mask compliance, we can get it back under control.

Yes, bars (some illegal) and parties.

 

[audreyh1]

I think we do understand the reasons for the surges... Complacency and denial.

People got complacent because the numbers were improving or low in their area... stopped taking precautions with the 3 w's (wear a m*, wash your hands, wait 6' apart). Or they were in denial. It gets old to have to be vigilant about physical space and m* wearing... People thought we were over this... and they were wrong.

Now even states that had lower numbers (hello Montana and West Virginia) are seeing rapid rises in cases.

I very much agree.

And I think a lot of it can be tied to super spreader environments which are essentially large gatherings and little to no precautions - whether parties or bars or work or whatever.

 

[6miths]

It seems to me that the word "waffling" has been used as an excuse to dismiss expert advice.

The fact is, this was a "novel" virus. We (humans) had never seen it before, we had no immunity to it, and we didn't understand all the different nuances of how it behaved.

But we knew it was bad. Decisions had to be made, based on what we knew was incomplete information. In other words, best guesses. Maybe it would behave like other corona viruses. It was a starting point.

And after what happened with toilet paper, I don't blame them for asking people to avoid hoarding masks.

Only later did we learn that the primary vector of infection was through droplets expelled by asymptomatic people. It turns out masks really would significantly reduce the spread.

I don't call that "waffling" at all. I call it giving the best advice possible with the information available.

I actually disagree to an extent. Perhaps the 'waffling' wasn't due to the expert's but more some of the 'non-experts' running the show. I agree with the statement that it makes (and has always made) sense to wear a mask when faced with an airborne pathogen which this was recognized from very early on. This may be a novel virus, but it's behaviour in terms of transmission is no different than countless other viruses. Other jurisdictions had very little hesitation to recommend masks.

I doubt that the hesitation was based on the worry that people would hoard masks or go into profiteering mode, although it is possible that someone had that much insight. As we see now, one can make a mask or a few go quite a long way. N95's are being refreshed and reused in medical settings quite effectively. And most are reusing the same surgical grade mask until it looks pretty nasty or breaks.

Lastly, I don't see that much of the population or some of its leaders are needing any excuse to minimize or flat out ignore even the most plainly stated expert advice.

 

[CaptTom]

I actually disagree to an extent. Perhaps the 'waffling' wasn't due to the expert's but more some of the 'non-experts' running the show. I agree with the statement that it makes (and has always made) sense to wear a mask when faced with an airborne pathogen which this was recognized from very early on. This may be a novel virus, but it's behaviour in terms of transmission is no different than countless other viruses. Other jurisdictions had very little hesitation to recommend masks.

I doubt that the hesitation was based on the worry that people would hoard masks or go into profiteering mode, although it is possible that someone had that much insight. As we see now, one can make a mask or a few go quite a long way. N95's are being refreshed and reused in medical settings quite effectively. And most are reusing the same surgical grade mask until it looks pretty nasty or breaks.

Lastly, I don't see that much of the population or some of its leaders are needing any excuse to minimize or flat out ignore even the most plainly stated expert advice.

I actually agree almost entirely. I wasn't going to mention any failure of leadership because it's not productive now, and I don't want this thread closed.

And, I do think there was a calculated effort to save masks from hoarding. Without thinking through how many different types of masks there are and options like re-using them or making them at home, it was logical to expect people to create a shortage which could impact hospitals. And recall, the true experts were very concerned about overwhelming the health care system at the start of this.

So, yes, there were all kinds of missteps. But I still think the majority of rank-and-file government employees and medical experts were trying to do the right thing, even while some elected leaders were preoccupied with the political impacts.

As for people not needing much of an excuse to be dismissive, I'm with you. I see it every day.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, I think the situation is obvious. It comes down to willful risky behavior and not enough messaging to encourage people to take the epidemic seriously and take the appropriate precautions.

There is a huge contrast between Europe and the US at the point. The EU has a comparable population of ~440M people vs. ~330M US. Nothing could be more stark.

How Europe Kept Coronavirus Cases Low Even After Reopening

As a surge in cases forces a number of U.S. states to reimpose restrictions, Europe’s reopening is for the most part going according to plan.

That is largely because of marked changes in social behavior across much of Europe, following widespread efforts by policy makers to drill the public to follow a simple, three-pronged approach: Keep a distance when possible, enhance hygiene and wear a mask when necessary. Older people, who are more vulnerable, are especially careful.

“People in Europe understood what they need to do. They take it seriously,” says Ilaria Capua, an Italian virologist at the University of Florida. “The crisis has been handled differently in different countries, but nobody in Europe is saying this is a nothing crisis.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-eu...cases-from-a-torrent-to-a-trickle-11595240731
if you have trouble with access try searching on the title above.

What says it all is the graph. No excuses!

 

[mckittri2000]

Well, I think the situation is obvious. It comes down to willful risky behavior and not enough messaging to encourage people to take the epidemic seriously and take the appropriate precautions.

There is a huge contrast between Europe and the US at the point. The EU has a comparable population of 440M people. Nothing could be more stark.

How Europe Kept Coronavirus Cases Low Even After Reopening

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-eu...cases-from-a-torrent-to-a-trickle-11595240731
if you have trouble with access try searching on the title above.

What says it all is the graph. No excuses!

I guarantee you that the US is doing a lot more testing then the EU. The graph is very misleading as to the fact that the US has done more testing, therefore, has found more asymptomatic cases. I'm not saying it's not bad here but if you test more people, it makes sense you'll find more cases.