Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[audreyh1]

The US reported more Covid-19 cases in the last two weeks than it did for all of June
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/23/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

In the past two weeks, the US recorded more than 915,000 new cases of coronavirus -- that's more than the cases reported across the country for the whole month of June.
......

In Texas, the state broke its record for hospitalizations two days in a row this week, with 10,848 patients reported Tuesday and 10,893 reported Wednesday. It also reported Wednesday its highest single-day number of deaths: 197.

 

[MichaelB]

New cases slowing, but fatalities increasing. That means the average age is probably rising, and this is not good. Demographic info would help.

We still don’t know how specifics of the infection is spreading. If it is the bars and other gatherings of younger people, they are bringing it home and infecting other family members. Family spread probably continues to be the largest source of contagion. Once it enters the dwelling, everyone gets sick.

 

[audreyh1]

New cases slowing, but fatalities increasing. That means the average age is probably rising, and this is not good. Demographic info would help.

We still don’t know how specifics of the infection is spreading. If it is the bars and other gatherings of younger people, they are bringing it home and infecting other family members. Family spread probably continues to be the largest source of contagion. Once it enters the dwelling, everyone gets sick.

I think you can attribute it to the usual delay between cases peaking and then hospitalizations peaking and finally deaths peaking which would occur some weeks later.

 

[candrew]

New cases slowing, but fatalities increasing. That means the average age is probably rising, and this is not good. Demographic info would help.

We still don’t know how specifics of the infection is spreading. If it is the bars and other gatherings of younger people, they are bringing it home and infecting other family members. Family spread probably continues to be the largest source of contagion. Once it enters the dwelling, everyone gets sick.

It is likely that case investigation and contact tracing would provide helpful data. Time is of the essence, though. In our area (Phoenix metro) thousands of new cases are identified daily and COVID test results are lagging 9-12 days.

 

[JoeWras]

My county has about 150,000 people. We have had about 1200 cases and about 50 deaths. Cases and deaths are still rising although not as fast as Texas or Florida. People in general seem to be wearing masks, social distancing, etc. The things that contributed to our spread--at the beginning it was mainly older people in nursing homes. Now it is mainly young people at illegal bars and parties--bars are not suppose to be open but restaurants were staying open until 10 pm and turning into bars and contact tracing showed that was were many cases spread. The county has now passed a rule-- no alcohol sales at restaurants after 10 pm, we will see if that helps.

harlee, you have a good point. I recently was in the NC coastal area as part of a hurricane damage recovery team (volunteer). I've gone 4 times since Mid May. It is the only thing I'm doing that requires interaction with people. I'm doing it because it is a necessary service. Unfortunately, for meals it requires interacting with tourist behavior.

Anyway, I can say there was better mask and social distancing compliance this time, compared to last time. Still, it was IMHO terrible compliance. I'm just saying it is improving. People are slowly getting the message.

We ate outdoors and we were also the oldest people around (60s). It seems that young families are "going for it," while most retirees are staying home. I suspect it isn't just spreading among young bar goers, I think families are a factor.

The good news for us is that NC seems to have reached a curve peak. Let's hope we continue the down drift. This is the first time since early May we're seeing an improvement in positivity rate. I fear people will get complacent again if they start seeing this good trend. That seems to be a problem.

The latest NC graphs. Source: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

 

[TechLead]

It is likely that case investigation and contact tracing would provide helpful data. Time is of the essence, though. In our area (Phoenix metro) thousands of new cases are identified daily and COVID test results are lagging 9-12 days.

You need result in 1 day in order for contact tracing to work. That is not a problem in any developed nation.

Places like Phoenix simply don't have usable testing in place. (If controlling spread is a goal)

 

[bonvoyage]

My county has about 150,000 people. We have had about 1200 cases and about 50 deaths. Cases and deaths are still rising although not as fast as Texas or Florida. People in general seem to be wearing masks, social distancing, etc. The things that contributed to our spread--at the beginning it was mainly older people in nursing homes. Now it is mainly young people at illegal bars and parties--bars are not suppose to be open but restaurants were staying open until 10 pm and turning into bars and contact tracing showed that was were many cases spread. The county has now passed a rule-- no alcohol sales at restaurants after 10 pm, we will see if that helps.

Restaurants have still not opened here in NJ for indoor dining and all bars remain firmly closed. I'm now getting convinced that this is the only approach that has any chance of working.

Talking about fear - when I had Covid back in April, there were at least another five or six households in my area that also had infections. I have to think that directly knowing someone who is suffering from the illness acts as somewhat of a deterrent to risky behavior.

 

[harllee]

Restaurants have still not opened here in NJ for indoor dining and all bars remain firmly closed. I'm now getting convinced that this is the only approach that has any chance of working.

Talking about fear - when I had Covid back in April, there were at least another five or six households in my area that also had infections. I have to think that directly knowing someone who is suffering from the illness acts as somewhat of a deterrent to risky behavior.

You are so correct about personally knowing someone who has been sick from Covid. I keep hearing people (even people on this Forum) say that they personally don't know anyone that has had Covid so they don't seem to be taking it seriously. I personally know 2 people who have died from Covid-19 and 3 more still sick after months so I am taking it very seriously. Unfortunately I think eventually everyone in the U.S. will know someone who has died and/or been very sick from Covid. That does not have to happen but that is our trajectory.

 

[JoeWras]

You are so correct about personally knowing someone who has been sick from Covid. I keep hearing people (even people on this Forum) say that they personally don't know anyone that has had Covid so they don't seem to be taking it seriously. I personally know 2 people who have died from Covid-19 and 3 more still sick after months so I am taking it very seriously. Unfortunately I think eventually everyone in the U.S. will know someone who has died and/or been very sick from Covid. That does not have to happen but that is our trajectory.

I only personlly know younger (under 45) people who have had it. They all recovered. It still does not make me feel any better.

I agree about indoor dining. It is very risky.

 

[Ronstar]

New cases slowing, but fatalities increasing. That means the average age is probably rising, and this is not good. Demographic info would help.

We still don’t know how specifics of the infection is spreading. If it is the bars and other gatherings of younger people, they are bringing it home and infecting other family members. Family spread probably continues to be the largest source of contagion. Once it enters the dwelling, everyone gets sick.

After looking at my county data, it seemed to me that the younger folks had a greater pct of cases than they had pct of overall population. So I ran the numbers.

Those less than 20 years old had far less pct of cases than population
Those in their 20's,30's,40's and 50's had a little more pct of cases than population. Those in their 30's seem to be the most prone.
Those in 60's and 70's had a little less pct of cases than population
Those 80+ had triple the pct of cases compared to pct of population

The drastic number of 80+ cases in our county can be attributed to a nursing home outbreak.

I suspect that those in their 60's and 70's are staying at home, social distancing better, and taking precautions better than the younger age groups.

And I suspect that those 20 - 60 years old are less likely to take precautions. After all, those 20- 60 are more likely to survive COVID than older folks. So they take more risks.

I suspect that this percentage data is similar to that elsewhere.

 

[audreyh1]

The good news for us is that NC seems to have reached a curve peak. Let's hope we continue the down drift. This is the first time since early May we're seeing an improvement in positivity rate. I fear people will get complacent again if they start seeing this good trend. That seems to be a problem.

The latest NC graphs. Source: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

Wow, 8% positivity rate is a heck of a lot better than 15% which is what it has recently dropped to from 18% in TX overall.

 

[JoeWras]

The under 20 stats for cases are likely skewed by the fact that the course of disease is typically so mild.

Here's my personal observation. This week a friend's daughter, mid-to late 20s, tested positive. She thinks she got it from movers who visited her home to move out all the furniture. They didn't distance or wear masks. She was in close contact as they were organizing and moving out. It also makes sense that movers have a very high risk due to interacting with so many people.

When she started showing symptoms, her 7 month old baby was also coughing. The cough lasted a short time. She got tested, and by the time positive came back, the baby was fine, and she was feeling better. She figures there is no need to test the baby. So, there's a very likely case that will never be counted in the young population.

 

[Montecfo]

I'm not sure I like the timing of his message either. I see some people saying screw it, it's never going away, I'm just going to go out and live my life i.e. party.

Yes. It is unfortunate.

 

[JoeWras]

Wow, 8% positivity rate is a heck of a lot better than 15% which is what it has recently dropped to from 18% in TX overall.

We can only hope people are paying attention to TX. We also kept gyms and bars closed. Churches can open, but only a minority are so far, and they get all the news of course.

There's been a definite flattening and maybe even a bend. BUT, I really fear complacency. We saw it before. "Governor says restaurants are open. Crisis is OVER! Let's play!"

I'm a church attendee, so I have nothing against them. I fear if things get better, many will open in the wrong way. I've heard about and read some plans on opening indoor services. Some are good, others are terrible. My church doesn't have indoor on the radar yet.

 

[audreyh1]

After looking at my county data, it seemed to me that the younger folks had a greater pct of cases than they had pct of overall population. So I ran the numbers.

Those less than 20 years old had far less pct of cases than population
Those in their 20's,30's,40's and 50's had a little more pct of cases than population. Those in their 30's seem to be the most prone.
Those in 60's and 70's had a little less pct of cases than population
Those 80+ had triple the pct of cases compared to pct of population

From your spreadsheet it does seem that the 50+ crowd got the message to stay safe.

But the younger folks having disproportionate cases can also be attributed to the economies reopening and the young folks having to return to work out of economic necessity. It’s not just parties/bars/socializing.

 

[Ronstar]

From your spreadsheet it does seem that the 50+ crowd got the message to stay safe.

But the younger folks having disproportionate cases can also be attributed to the economies reopening and the young folks having to return to work out of economic necessity. It’s not just parties/bars/socializing.

Exactly.

And I suspect that the spreadsheet underestimates the degree by which the younger folks exceed their share of the cases. I would think that a greater pct of younger folks are asymtomatic (and not tested) compared to older folks, and these asymptomatic folks are not in the data if not tested. Otherwise the data would show a greater propensity for younger folks to exceed their "fair share" of cases

 

[Winemaker]

After looking at my county data, it seemed to me that the younger folks had a greater pct of cases than they had pct of overall population. So I ran the numbers.

Those less than 20 years old had far less pct of cases than population
Those in their 20's,30's,40's and 50's had a little more pct of cases than population. Those in their 30's seem to be the most prone.
Those in 60's and 70's had a little less pct of cases than population
Those 80+ had triple the pct of cases compared to pct of population

The drastic number of 80+ cases in our county can be attributed to a nursing home outbreak.

I suspect that those in their 60's and 70's are staying at home, social distancing better, and taking precautions better than the younger age groups.

And I suspect that those 20 - 60 years old are less likely to take precautions. After all, those 20- 60 are more likely to survive COVID than older folks. So they take more risks.

I suspect that this percentage data is similar to that elsewhere.

I wish I had some kind of any statistics for my county, or state for that matter.

 

[ivinsfan]

You need result in 1 day in order for contact tracing to work. That is not a problem in any developed nation.

Places like Phoenix simply don't have usable testing in place. (If controlling spread is a goal)

I haven't seen any data about national times from testing to resulting is there somewhere to look it up?

 

[audreyh1]

I haven't seen any data about national times from testing to resulting is there somewhere to look it up?

I have only found it in articles. It varies by state, but 6 days to two weeks seems common unless you are already hospitalized. I’ve read that in Arizona delays have been up to three weeks! For contact tracing to be effective you really want results within a day.
https://time.com/5869130/covid-19-test-delays/

 

[ivinsfan]

I have only found it in articles. It varies by state, but 6 days to two weeks seems common unless you are already hospitalized. I’ve read that in Arizona delays have been up to three weeks! For contact tracing to be effective you really want results within a day.
https://time.com/5869130/covid-19-test-delays/

I wonder about international testing result times, that probably isn't gathered together anywhere? Probably have to try and search by county. One thing our state MN ran into us they "come and get a test, anyone can get one for any reason we want to run 20K a day". When they got to 17K a day they realized it really caused a lag in testing results. It made contact tracing virtually worthless as far as stopping spread. They have seen refined the testing standards a little to improve this issue.

 

[MichaelB]

I have only found it in articles. It varies by state, but 6 days to two weeks seems common unless you are already hospitalized. I’ve read that in Arizona delays have been up to three weeks! For contact tracing to be effective you really want results within a day.
https://time.com/5869130/covid-19-test-delays/

6 to 12 days renders the test informative but unactionable. Even if it’s safe to say most people will do the right thing and self isolate / alert others, they’ll still be active during the wait, continuing the spread.

The FDA did approve pooled testing a few days ago (link here). Just for Quest, though. This is a no-brainer, and an example of where they have really dropped the ball.

 

[audreyh1]

6 to 12 days renders the test informative but unactionable. Even if it’s safe to say most people will do the right thing and self isolate / alert others, they’ll still be active during the wait, continuing the spread.

The FDA did approve pooled testing a few days ago (link here). Just for Quest, though. This is a no-brainer, and an example of where they have really dropped the ball.

Right, contact tracers can’t reach out those who have been in contact with the person tested to let them know they’ve been exposed and need to get tested and self-isolate.

And pool testing doesn’t work well when the positivity rate is high. Chances are high the pool will test positive in which case you are simply duplicating the work. Pool testing works well when positivity rates are low. Pool testing needed to be available as we came out of lockdowns. From same Time article I linked above.

Innovative solutions like pooled testing—whereby several samples are tested at once to conserve reagents and manpower—could offer some relief, but Kortepeter fears it’s too late for that. Pooled testing works best when there’s not much disease in the population, he says. If a batch comes back positive, testers have to go back and analyze each sample individually to figure out who is infected. In hotspots where as many as 20% of tests are coming back positive, pooled testing is likely only to duplicate efforts, in Kortepeter’s view.

 

[cathy63]

...California? I imagine that is just a story of population density.

Population density plays a role in the cities, but currently CA's worst outbreaks (by cases per capita) are actually in the rural counties of Lassen, Imperial, Stanislaus, Colusa, Kern, Kings, San Joaquin, Tulare, Marin and Merced. The main causes seem to be close living situations in prisons, especially San Quentin; tourism in the National Parks; and close living conditions for farm workers.

 

[Chuckanut]

My point is only that density is not destiny. States, even densely populated ones, can get control of this pandemic if the people in them are willing to do what it takes. Sure, mistakes were made in the Northeast, but others can learn from that. Hopefully, they will.

+1

Some of those European cities are VERY dense. Yet they operate much more normally today than my less dense city.

 

[TechLead]

+1

Some of those European cities are VERY dense. Yet they operate much more normally today than my less dense city.

Taiwan is 10th most densely populated country on the planet. It had 7 Covid Deaths, (At this rate US would have about 100 deaths total) economy if fully functioning, schools are opened, people are employed etc.

Even though there is almost no spread Taiwanese wear masks and can get Covid test result within an hours.