Realistic = no hope!

[walkinwood]

Fritz,
Welcome to the forum.

What you've written jives well with what most here believe
- Save. Save early. Save as much as possible.
- Invest in low-cost mutual funds (people prefer index funds)
- Diversify.
- Withdraw a reasonable percentage (most here would say less than 4%)
- No guarantees - you have to be flexible.

Why would you expect rocks from this forum?

 

[brewer12345]

Kudos, fritz.

On another tack, it is worth mentioning that there are many different lifestyles worth living in retirement, and a lot of them are far more attainable than a golf community home with a luxury car in the driveway. Lots of retirees with not so much money do quite well. Tioga George lives quite a life travelling all over the place on not much more than Social Security, for example. Any number of expats have a good time in Mexico, Panama, Thailand, etc. I bet Haha lives on a good deal less than I do and he seems to live a pretty pleasant life in Seattle. The couple sailing around at www.tendervittles.net probably live on half or less of what I do.

So I guess you do the best you can to save up and plan, but when the time comes you make the most of what you have. Those that do so seeking to suck the sweet out of every day have a lot better time than those that spend time bellyaching.

 

[Sam]

Welcome.

I did not read any of the responses, so mine might be a repeat.

Hi All.
New to this forum but not to the world of investments.

Are you sure?

I mean, the % likelyhood of Joe Public actually HAVING, say, a million at aged 65 is pretty slim. Then the crunch comes when Joe figures out that his financial planner forgot to mention that in 35 yrs time, a million would only feel like $200k, if he's lucky. Really lucky.

I say that JPublic has a very good chance at saving a million before he reaches 65. This is the USA after all. I just don't see how a million would feel like 200K in 35 yrs? What inflation rate are you thinking about? In the past 35 years, the average inflation rate is about 3.5% annually.

Also, this concept of 80% of "work income" as retirement needs
Another scam....people will "need" more than 100%....

Alright, I think you have really gone overboard on this.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Fritz, Brogan--welcome to the boards.

I've read this thread and there are many quite serious suggestions in response to what I see as a challenge from Brogran (i.e., "prove me wrong!"). I don't know if he really wants advice or not, but many goodhearted people have posted thoughtful answers (that took a lot of time to compose) to his questions. I'm amazed at how much I continue to learn from this board. I hope Brogran finds the answers he wants. If he finds them somewhere else, I hope he shares them here.

 

[easysurfer]

Fritz,

Welcome to the board. Great advice...especially about it becoming one's own decision. No one knows what's best except yourself.

Easysurfer

 

[Moemg]

Welcome Fritz , great post !

 

[rescueme]

Alright, I think you have really gone overboard on this.

Maybe not - here's a recent article which states "Estimate that you will be spending anywhere from 100 to 110 percent of your working budget if you are planning to have an active lifestyle. If you are planning to stay home, then maybe 80 to 90 percent."

9 Ways Spending Changes in Retirement - Yahoo! News

BTW, I've been retired a bit over 2.5 years, and spending the same amount of net income as I did during my wor*ing years...

 

[Gumby]

I'm always amazed at the animosity shown by some forum members to anyone who dares to post anything contrary to their opinion. I suppose we should all nod and agree like good little sheep. : yawn :

Sarah:

The points made by brogan007 about "ordinary Joe's" ability to retire early may or may not be correct; I do not purport to judge them. Many here have posted in detail why they believe he is incorrect. And to that extent, the thread has value.

In a larger sense, however, I question why brogan is here in the first place. This is a forum dedicated to the proposition that he is wrong -- that ordinary people can retire early if they play their cards right. Among our number are plenty of people who have lived their lives as "ordinary Joe's" and are now happily retired. There are others who plan to retire just as happily, not ever having been anything other than an ordinary Joe who worked hard, lived simply and saved and invested wisely. I am one of them.

We may very well be mistaken in our beliefs. But if we are, what is it to brogan? What does he gain by raining on our parade? Suppose, for example, that we had a forum for people suffering from a dread disease (perhaps breast cancer) and we traded tips on courses of treatment, coping methods, grieving issues, etc. Suppose those who were long term survivors posted their stories to inspire and inform the rest of us. Now suppose brogan posted a first post saying, in essence, "You are all wrong. There is no hope. The doctors are all involved in a huge scam and you are going to die a miserable death." Do you think he would be well received? Do you think he should be?

Why would he possibly want to do that? One answer is that he is nothing but a troll, seeking to get a rise out of the people here to satisfy his own need for attention. If that is the case, I can do without him. What I think is far more likely, however, is that he is an incipient spammer. Read posts Number 1 and 20 again carefully. Doesn't it seem as if all the "questions" brogan asks in his initial post are nothing more than rhetorical devices? Ending with the provocative "What is the answer?" In post 20, he tells us that he has an answer and that it involves "leaving the tax system and getting out of the Matrix". This is the quintessential sales "come on", designed to elicit our interest in what is to come. I am convinced that, notwithstanding his protestations to the contrary, brogan came here with the intent of selling some "strategy". My guess is that it involves a combination of shady "personal incorporation" and offshore, unreported banking, with the clear intention of evading taxes. If so, it is not only immoral, but probably illegal. We do not, nor should we, tolerate that.

In sum, I have no problem hearing and debating alternative points of view. I am not, however, willing to tolerate trolls or spammers on this forum.

Gumby

P.S. -- I am also strongly opposed to anyone using the hackneyed term "sheeple".

 

[traineeinvestor]

While I fall into the camp that believes that the financial problems faced by many developed (and some developing) countries are serious and that there are a number of factors which will make it difficult for people to get ahead financially (including some of those cited in the original post), as others have said that does not render it impossible to get ahead financially.....unless, of course, you decide not to even try.

(As an aside and at the risk of pointing out the obvious, times of economic adversity are generally the best times in which to buy investments if you are in a position to do so.)

Whatever we face in the future there are two things I regard as certainties. The first is that those who learn to control their wants and needs, live below their means and save and invest prudently will do better financially than those who do not - regardless of the economic conditions. The second is that while personal finances are important to many of us, they are a long way from being the most important thing in life.

 

[SarahW]

Maybe the OP is saying that if so many people can't make it, it will drag down those of us who have saved in the form of more taxes, more subsidized health care, cash for clunker programs on all kinds of things, etc.

That's how I read his posts, and in fact, I agree. Doesn't it bother any of you to consider the years you LBYM and saved, or had the audacity to earn a decent salary...so YOU can pay MORE for those who don't/can't? Sheesh. I am extremely concerned about the direction this country is taking. The national debt is terrifying to consider.

And yes, we who have assets will surely pay. I am not adverse to paying my fair share...but exactly what will that mean in our mortgaged future?

 

[SarahW]

I question why brogan is here in the first place. This is a forum dedicated to the proposition that he is wrong -- that ordinary people can retire early if they play their cards right.

... What does he gain by raining on our parade?

I'm not sure what his motives are, or whether he has any. It seemed to me that he was posting his frustrations about the "haves" in this country increasingly having to pay for the "have nots." I must admit, I feel a certain amount of that same frustration.

Perhaps his delivery left something to be desired as his point isn't clear. However I don't see why anyone would label him a "troll" or make snide remarks about his being here to sell something.

 

[SarahW]

Sarah, I am happy to listen to people give there reasons for why they think our country is in deep do do. But I am not impressed with posters who say they are going to be tax cheats. I think his statements about not paying taxes and his incorrect statements about the attitudes of forum members lead to the animosity you see.

Agreed.

I think he would have gotten a much different reception here had his approach been one of "I'm concerned about..." rather than "I know...".

As I've already said, it may simply have been his frustration talking. Who knows?

 

[Gumby]

I'm not sure what his motives are, or whether he has any. It seemed to me that he was posting his frustrations about the "haves" in this country increasingly having to pay for the "have nots." I must admit, I feel a certain amount of that same frustration.

Perhaps his delivery left something to be desired as his point isn't clear. However I don't see why anyone would label him a "troll" or make snide remarks about his being here to sell something.

I do not dispute that you have real concerns about certain issues, which, in your interpretation, brogan's posts also raise. Nor do I seek to comment on the pros or cons of those concerns. But I can tell you that years of watching people post here (and I lurked for years before I finally joined) have given me a heightened sense of people posting because they see our members as a potential customer base to be mined.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I am convinced that, notwithstanding his protestations to the contrary, brogan came here with the intent of selling some "strategy".

I tink you got his number, gumby. Either that or he is ready to drink the cool-aid, but he seems too inflammatory for that. We are seeing the the slow wind-up before the fast pitch.

My opinion: Most people, if they manage their money properly (BIG CAVEAT!), can retire in some comfort and safety, but not luxury.

Sadly, I don't think most people have the knowledge or the cojones to do so. I anticipate that the gummint is going to bail them out with our savings, either by inflation or by getting their hands on our retirement funds or both.

The way I look at it, it is like being chased by a polar bear. All you have to do is be faster than the guy next to you. I figure to be retired before (only JUST before) the S hits the fan. That ought to put me in the ranks of the have-nots (poor retired folks living off cat food).

I have been studying the beggars on the side of the road for years. ("Spare change, man?") I know where the good corners are now. My sign will read, "Will design methanol plants for food."

 

[NW-Bound]

On another tack, it is worth mentioning that there are many different lifestyles worth living in retirement, and a lot of them are far more attainable than a golf community home with a luxury car in the driveway. Lots of retirees with not so much money do quite well. Tioga George lives quite a life travelling all over the place on not much more than Social Security, for example. Any number of expats have a good time in Mexico, Panama, Thailand, etc. I bet Haha lives on a good deal less than I do and he seems to live a pretty pleasant life in Seattle. The couple sailing around at www.tendervittles.net probably live on half or less of what I do.

So I guess you do the best you can to save up and plan, but when the time comes you make the most of what you have. Those that do so seeking to suck the sweet out of every day have a lot better time than those that spend time bellyaching.

Yep! To quote Andrew Tobias,

It is possible to live well whether you are rich or poor. When you are poor, it just costs less. - Andrew Tobias​

So, me worry?

 

[ultimo]

btw...many US citizens have already disconnected & are living an expatriate lifestyle, not subject to US tax. I feel this is the answer.

That's a very valid option, in my opinion. If you're able to, then do it. It's tough to live with so much future uncertainty and you're right to plan for the worst. I congratulate you on your self-honesty.

 

[ultimo]

This is a forum dedicated to the proposition that he is wrong -- that ordinary people can retire early if they play their cards right.

That seems to be exactly what Brogan is trying to do--play his cards right.

 

[ultimo]

btw...many US citizens have already disconnected & are living an expatriate lifestyle, not subject to US tax. I feel this is the answer. I'll wait to see how many folks flame this concept as against the law.....without really understanding that it's entirely possible, legal & attractive....just not shared with the Sheeple.

Unfortunately, you'd probably have to give up your U.S. citizenship, which is not an emotionally easy thing to do. If you hold dual citizenship, then you're likely to still have some U.S. tax obligations, even if it's just to file a tax form every year with a $500 payment.

To others who suggest this constitutes "cheating": you're wrong.

 

[ultimo]

But I can tell you that years of watching people post here (and I lurked for years before I finally joined) have given me a heightened sense of people posting because they see our members as a potential customer base to be mined.

What on earth is Brogan trying to sell? He (or she) came here with some questions, just like I did. I suspect that s/he's just as surprised as I am by how easy it is to touch a nerve on this forum.

 

[FIREd]

But isn't it true that by moving abroad, you are disconnecting yourself from the US tax system just to connect yourself to yet another tax system, that of your country of residence? You gotta pay taxes somewhere if you don't want to end up in prison...

 

[Gumby]

What on earth is Brogan trying to sell? He (or she) came here with some questions, just like I did. I suspect that s/he's just as surprised as I am by how easy it is to touch a nerve on this forum.

It appears that brogan has become our very own Rorschach test. We each see what we want to see in his posts. If brogan stays on as a contributing forum member,without trying to sell anything, I will be happy to have been proven wrong.

 

[brewer12345]

I tink you got his number, gumby. Either that or he is ready to drink the cool-aid, but he seems too inflammatory for that. We are seeing the the slow wind-up before the fast pitch.

My opinion: Most people, if they manage their money properly (BIG CAVEAT!), can retire in some comfort and safety, but not luxury.

Sadly, I don't think most people have the knowledge or the cojones to do so. I anticipate that the gummint is going to bail them out with our savings, either by inflation or by getting their hands on our retirement funds or both.

The way I look at it, it is like being chased by a polar bear. All you have to do is be faster than the guy next to you. I figure to be retired before (only JUST before) the S hits the fan. That ought to put me in the ranks of the have-nots (poor retired folks living off cat food).

I have been studying the beggars on the side of the road for years. ("Spare change, man?") I know where the good corners are now. My sign will read, "Will design methanol plants for food."

Hah! And I bet you will get a few takers on the design business. Alternatively, I bet yor skills would translate nicely to the design of backwoods spirits manufacture. I like to think that my knowledge of malting, brewing and fermentation science would be worth something after the revolution comes.

 

[Moemg]

If so far two posters have mentioned animosity and how easy it is to touch nerves in this forum maybe we should all take a look at ourselves . I also have noticed people being put down for different opinions or made fun of for wanting to spend more than the LBYM er's think reasonable . McMansions are always good for a snide remark as is living in Manhattan . I have no idea about Brogan but I 've seen a lot of newcomers put down for various reasons and they are all not trolls or spammers just people with different opinions .

 

[FinanceDude]

If so far two posters have mentioned animosity and how easy it is to touch nerves in this forum maybe we should all take a look at ourselves . I also have noticed people being put down for different opinions or made fun of for wanting to spend more than the LBYM er's think reasonable . McMansions are always good for a snide remark as is living in Manhattan . I have no idea about Brogan but I 've seen a lot of newcomers put down for various reasons and they are all not trolls or spammers just people with different opinions .

I'm with you, Mo. Of course, its not like I HAVE EVER been the target of any inflammatory comments............

 

[brogan007]

Ouch!

Just to make my thoughts clear.
I've nothing to sell. I'm not a troll. I don't spam.
What I do enjoy is debate, the exchange of views.
Like the movie said...We ( USA) really do live in an advanced democracy...where we must listen to others who have views that are directly opposed to our own.
So what? There is no "right". It is our obligation to question.
Many have lost the ability or willingness to debate. Just look at the so-called townhall meetings recently on healthcare reform.
Ouch.
My whole purpose for posting was to initiate an exchange of views. I originate in Europe, where folks sit in pubs/cafes & discuss things.
Things like religeon, politics, abortion, sex.
Lordy lordy...in this country, from what I've experienced, that creates a stunned silence in the room.
I really miss open debate in the US. Here, it seems, if one questions the "system" one gets labled as a loony real quick. ( no offence to our Northern buds!)
I QUESTION the future of the US economic model. I QUESTION who is going to provide the $$$$$ that Joe will need to live on in his later years. Coz sure as hell, Joe doesn't have it in his account today.
I question why I, me, Brogan should have to see my hard earned cash go to support all the tens of millions of Joe's. I'm just wanting a debate on the concept...to see what others think AND WHAT WE/I CAN DO ABOUT IT.
This is what forums are for no?
I'm not a loony.
The press, the govt, this forum, EVERYONE....never really fess's up to this 800lb gorilla. I see a train wreck coming.
Retirement is a personal thing. Not a one-size-fits-all. I do get it.
But....for those of us who are lucky enough to live an above average life-style & have built up an above average portfolio...it is sickening ( my personal feelings only ) to realise that I'm going to be singled out even more in the next 30 yrs to support Joe.
When I question that the system sucks....it's an opinion.
I'm shocked at the forum mods being so closed minded to my alternate opinion, or maybe I missed the small print at sign-up re. all "Black Hats" stay out.
My thoughts re. exiting the "Matrix"...not illegal. There's a whole world out there...places where there's no income tax.....yes, really.
Why flame me for pointing out a fact?
Overall, I'm one of the fortunate few. I HAVE a choice.
I'm mad as hell & I'm considering not taking it anymore.
This in no way is a negative comment on folks who are content to live on a modest ( insert your figure here) income that is probably below the radar ( it'll have to be pretty damned modest) of the tax hawks.

My 25c.
Brogan.
PS : a great quote...." Democracy is 2 wolves & a lamb discussing what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well armed lamb disputing the vote"
( I don't own a gun, before the rocks start flying)