Another scary chart?

[robls]

https://buyupside.com/phpautostocks/spreallogpricesfirst1871display.php
Scary S&P 500 Long-term Price Chart

 

[JoeWras]

Looked like nonsense to me. Says it goes out to 2022 and ends at 2019?

Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[audreyh1]

People come up with all sorts of crap trying to predict stuff with charts. Why bother?

 

[VanWinkle]

Clickbait article with charting being explained to a "scary"
advantage. Nothing actionable here it seems.

 

[OldShooter]

Technical analysis consistently makes astrologers look like geniuses.

 

[target2019]

The not-scary S&P500 chart. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices

 

[robls]

This is what I should have posted:https://buyupside.com/alphavantagelive/stocksp500chartdisplaylog10av1971.php
Not so scary.

 

[OldShooter]

The not-scary S&P500 chart. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices

Yes. And this one understates by not including dividends, which have ranged in the 3% to 5% range. (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/071616/history-sp-500-dividend-yield.asp)

 

[robls]

Yes. And this one understates by not including dividends, which have ranged in the 3% to 5% range. (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/071616/history-sp-500-dividend-yield.asp)

You learn a lot on this forum. Lesson learned.

 

[VanWinkle]

You learn a lot on this forum. Lesson learned.

+1

 

[OldShooter]

You learn a lot on this forum. Lesson learned.

Yes, dividends are really important when looking at performance history.

It is the rare table or graph that actually shows total return, comprising price changes plus dividends. IMO there are a couple of reasons for this. First, it is more difficult that just grabbing and displaying a price history. Secondly, hucksters want to show price history instead of total return because it makes whatever they are selling look better. A classic example is variable annuities, which AFIK all offer returns based on price history only -- essentially keeping the dividends for themselves. Stock picker mutual funds do it too, for obvious reasons.

Price history is meaningless. Only total return matters.

 

[robls]

Here is an article from Early Retirement Now with a chart at the top breaking down the S&P 500 return, dividends and total return.
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/10/14/dividends-only-swr-series-part-40/

 

[Aerides]

I see lot of "this scary" and links, but little context or description from the posters. Can you provide context, snippets, etc., so that folks reading this thread aren't obligated to go to 3rd party links to know what is going on?

thanks.

 

[JoeWras]

I see lot of "this scary" and links, but little context or description from the posters. Can you provide context, snippets, etc., so that folks reading this thread aren't obligated to go to 3rd party links to know what is going on?

thanks.

Hi Aerides. The naked link ticked me off. I took a quick look and came out with my best description. "Garbage"

This was followed up with similar supporting posts.

I guess we could say this:

"This link points to some random person on the internet (RPOTI) who created their own blog with poorly done graphs. The data to these graphs are not explained. The data are said to have been adjusted "for inflation" with no references. The article is short, with a blurb and a graph, with no explanation. It is a typical technical analysis kind of graph, with random extrapolation lines and boundary lines thrown here and there. In our collective opinion, there's little value to this particular graph. The RPOTI clearly is looking for linked in clicks. Do not click and feed the RPOTI click collector."

 

[ls99]

https://buyupside.com/phpautostocks/spreallogpricesfirst1871display.php
Scary S&P 500 Long-term Price Chart

Can't be scary or elating if ignoring the naked link.