California High Speed Rail

Based on other large government projects I am confident that, even if this project is ever begun, the final costs would be many multiples of the projected amount.

I remind all of the Big Dig in Boston. It was projected to cost 2.8 billion dollars. Final bill has yet to come in, but it's over $14 billion dollars as of today.

I don't know what the impetus for this project is, but am sure that some folks stand to do very well as it moves along (no puns intended).

Rich
 
Wow MooreBonds, that's pretty well thought out and I won't even go to the trouble of messing with your figures. I think a question to be answered is this; is it just a money problem (justification) or is it a mindset? I can't believe this country intends to just keep plodding along with our cars as the regular/normal mode of transportation. Europe is much more advanced with the trains but they've been at it for years out of necessity. They're been living with high fuel costs for decades and mass transportation is a necessity. Not here yet. I say that if gas was $5-6/gal (as in Europe) there would be the wailing and gnashing of teeth and we'd all be hollering for high speed rail. I remember hearing some years ago that Americans are in love with their cars and they would rather sit in traffic for hours than get on a train. What say you?
 
Are the bonds general obligations of California? Or backed only by revenues from the rail service?
 
I wanted to find out more about the Chunnel.... but I could not quickly find anything on the total loss of investors.... it does seem like they restructured their debt at least once....


Eurotunnel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


So, no, I would not buy these bonds....


Edit to add... and OLD story on it...

http://www.businessweek.com/1997/51/b3558053.htm


And a newer one on an extension....

http://m.dailymail.co.uk/mobile/news/article.html?articleID=2169599

"Total taxpayer support for the 68-mile HS1 over the period to 2070 is likely to be £10.2billion, the report from the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee added.
International passenger numbers on HS1 are only a third of the 1995 original forecast and two-thirds of the level the Department for Transport (DfT) forecast in 1998, said the committee.
It went on: 'Over-optimistic and unrealised forecasts for passenger demand on HS1 left the taxpayer saddled with £4.8'billion of debt.'"
 
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is it just a money problem (justification) or is it a mindset? I can't believe this country intends to just keep plodding along with our cars as the regular/normal mode of transportation. Europe is much more advanced with the trains but they've been at it for years out of necessity. They're been living with high fuel costs for decades and mass transportation is a necessity. Not here yet. I say that if gas was $5-6/gal (as in Europe) there would be the wailing and gnashing of teeth and we'd all be hollering for high speed rail. I remember hearing some years ago that Americans are in love with their cars and they would rather sit in traffic for hours than get on a train. What say you?

Answer: It's all in the numbers.

Using some Wikipedia numbers, the population density of most large Western European countries was around 200+ people/km^2 (France was the outlier at just 115/km^2).

Compare that to the Continential US: 37 people/km^2.

Western Europe is mostly 6 times (or more) densely populated as the US is. That simple fact alone should tell us something about the economics of some transportation methods.

And then consider the politics/economics of having enough highway networks when you have 20 different countries, all with different politicians, different tax bases, different trade networks. Imagine if the US Interstate system were funded by the states, and not the federal government - that is similar to how Western Europe is, with each country having their own agenda/goals. Sure, they have some highways linking the countries (just like the US had some highways linking states together before the Interstate system), but it's not quite as easy to develop or maximize.

And as you point out, when the taxes on fuel are such, it can make far more economic sense to use trains, given their population density and infrastructure/support network, like other public transit and parking garages (or lack thereof)...although I would venture a guess and say that most of the major cities in Europe have not experienced urban sprawl like the US has. As such, the population densities have stayed relatively close to the urban centers - keeping mass transit not only an option, but sheer necessity, due to simple lack of place for parking garages and bigger streets (streets which were designed 300-500 years ago for horses).

That's why transit systems in Chicago and NYC can be viable...but why a mass transit in Podunk, Alabama can never be economically justifiable.

When we get to Eastern Europe (former Soviet Bloc), I imagine they have a different historical reason for mass transit - perhaps mostly a simple lack of disposable income under socialism for the masses to afford cars, and perhaps partly also to keep it easier to 'control' the movement of the masses from a socialist governance perspective?

Although, interestingly enough, based on another Wikipedia entry, the US car density is roughly 770 cars/1,000 people, while Western Europe averages roughly 600 cars/1,000 people - a higher number than I would have thought for W. Europe, given their widespread use of public transport.

Also, according to this Wikipedia entry, there are actually quite a few US Cities among the top 200 world mass transit systems....so, again, it comes down to the sheer numbers: the US population-wise has too many people spread out in medium and smaller cities to make extensive inter-city mass transit viable in all but a handful of situations.
 
Gotta call BS on the comparative population density stats. Average population density including huge area of uninhibited land where no one is proposing building anything is misleading, to say the least. Parts of the US are dense enough other parts are not. You cannot just make a blanket assessment for the whole heterogeneous population distribution.
 
Gotta call BS on the comparative population density stats. Average population density including huge area of uninhibited land where no one is proposing building anything is misleading, to say the least. Parts of the US are dense enough other parts are not. You cannot just make a blanket assessment for the whole heterogeneous population distribution.

...which is why I said:

Also, according to this Wikipedia entry, there are actually quite a few US Cities among the top 200 world mass transit systems....so, again, it comes down to the sheer numbers: the US population-wise has too many people spread out in medium and smaller cities to make extensive inter-city mass transit viable in all but a handful of situations.

As some people have referenced (I don't have the sources), Amtrack has mentioned that a few of their interstate routes are actually profitable in the super-dense NE. "A few", being the key word. Meaning that the vast majority are not. High speed or otherwise.

As I said, on a limited basis it can make sense (resource wise and economically)....but connecting extensive parts of the US is simply not feasible, given the costs from massive distances between many cities, ridership, and alternative means of transportation.

Actually...I just ran across this study done by the UK government, using 2003 data, which shows a vast majority of transit miles per capita still completed by cars in Western European countries:
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ejw93 said:
Powerpoints, EBITDAs, IRRs, RFRs, and AFL-CIOs aside, I've got 2 words:

easyJet, RyanAir.

Alas, the California air corridor is already running close to capacity, and the projected 67% rise in traffic over the next 25 years is going to have a negative impact on air travel performance in the region. Only one of the northern California airfields is in a position to significantly expand capacity to meet the new demand (San Jose International). Southern California is similarly constrained.
 
Answer: It's all in the numbers.

Of course it's ALL about numbers. The devil is in the details. From time to time we're willingly choosing to ignore the inconvenient or unpleasant details for various reasons.

If George Costanza had done his part of number crunching in advance, then he probably wouldn't have uttered out "I will give you a raise!" to his secretary at NY Yankees.
 
Transportation infrastructure was one of the great enablers that allowed this country to grow, prosper and be so competitive. It still enables, and with economic growth faltering and unskilled wages stagnating, it makes sense to continue to improve it, especially when it connects producers with markets or workers with employers. It doesn't appear that this project focuses on either of these two critical areas.

While there may be a market for high speed medium distance passenger transportation, I don't think it has a high priority, and as taxpayers funding is limited, funds should be used for something with greater economic impact.

Just my $0.02
 
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Alas, the California air corridor is already running close to capacity, and the projected 67% rise in traffic over the next 25 years is going to have a negative impact on air travel performance in the region. Only one of the northern California airfields is in a position to significantly expand capacity to meet the new demand (San Jose International). Southern California is similarly constrained.

I am really dubious of this projection. Overall the number of air passengers increased in the US from 2000 to 2010 by 7.5%. I seriously doubt that people are going to be flying significantly more now than are today. Airlines are basically selling seats at costs so there isn't much hope that lower cost will increase demand. The hassle factor of flying is still quite high and unlikely to decrease significantly baring sanity prevailing at the TSA and I am not holding my breath. For business travel, telemeeting are becoming an increasingly good alternative. I don't see CA experiencing population growth much above the US average (and we could see a decrease with high unemployment and dysfunctional government). Overall I doubt we see much over a 20% increase in air traffic or any other type of travel for that matter in CA.

It seems to me that HS rail in CA is a solution in search of problem.
 
clifp said:
I am really dubious of this projection. Overall the number of air passengers increased in the US from 2000 to 2010 by 7.5%. I seriously doubt that people are going to be flying significantly more now than are today. Airlines are basically selling seats at costs so there isn't much hope that lower cost will increase demand. The hassle factor of flying is still quite high and unlikely to decrease significantly baring sanity prevailing at the TSA and I am not holding my breath. For business travel, telemeeting are becoming an increasingly good alternative. I don't see CA experiencing population growth much above the US average (and we could see a decrease with high unemployment and dysfunctional government). Overall I doubt we see much over a 20% increase in air traffic or any other type of travel for that matter in CA.

It seems to me that HS rail in CA is a solution in search of problem.

I hope you're right. As it is, things get bad just from a little fog on the Bay, or a shift in winds requiring OAK to take approaches from the north. And for what it's worth, I doubt that high speed rail will be The Answer. TSA is already indicating that they want to control passenger access and screening, and is pushing for station design with them in mind. So add two hours of TSA time to your travel time...

http://www.hsrupdates.com/news/deta...-implement-standards-for-US-HSR-systems--1101
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...charles-schumer-wants-no-ride-list-for-trains

(Dr. Evil then parks a rented van full of the usual stuff at a rural underpass a minute before the train will cross...)

With no time savings, no cost savings, and all the inconvenience of flying, I should take the train why?
 
I have read over all the posts. In fact, over and over and have come to this conclusion. All of this is doable if we want to spend the money. It would probably make for a better country. You all have to admit that in the last century we made great strides in transportation. Look back at how the automobile progressed, the airplane evolved and space travel. The railroads were around in the 1800's, they progressed and then stagnated. All of this in the 20th century. Here we are in the 21st century and I wonder what it holds. None of us will be around to see the end of the 21st century but if is goes as the 20th century went, we would be amazed. My grandfathers never saw space flight or even rode on a jet airplane. Unbelieveable!

This thread made me think about how many things we would like to do as a society but money holds the key to everything. Look at how many people are still without power in the midwest and northeast because of Tropical Storm Debby. I've thought about this for years but when the hell are we going to get rid of those ugly telephone poles? We ought to have all power lines underground. Aren't telephone poles and lines ugly? I hate them. Money. That's the name of the game.

Hopefully this is the basis for a new thread. I know there are a lot of sharp people on this forum and I'll bet we could come up with hundreds of ideas to improve our mode of living. The hell with the cost!

Sorry for the rant.
 
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After taking the Amtrak Coast Starlight even 70 mph would make it a 'fast train'. I don't think the cost of constructing a system with higher speeds is cost effective. As long as they are buying right of way buy enough to make it two tracks wide. If the day comes that rail work is indicated there would be enough space to divert to a parallel track.

Spend money on nice stations, easy boarding, dedicated track, 70 mph travel and many would feel the investment well worth it.

The Cascades run between Portland and Seattle is very popular but it still shares right of way with freight.
 
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The Hoover Dam and the Interstate Highway System were expensive things left to children and grandchildren. INVESTMENT is not the same as Spending.
 
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The Hoover Dam and the Interstate Highway System were expensive things left to children and grandchildren. INVESTMENT is not the same as Spending.

No, but the HSR system is a gamble, not an investment. It might pay off, but most of the numbers don't back it up. And CA is pretty broke already.

Reason Foundation - California High-Speed Rail Findings at a Glance

http://www.cc-hsr.org/assets/pdf/NFOS.pdf

And even the supporters recognize it as a gamble.

California bullet train is worthy gamble - Los Angeles Times

There's no way I would buy these bonds. And I'm definitely in the market for a good bond.
 
I don't care for Governor Skeletor (otherwise known as Rick Scott, FL) but he made a brilliant decision not to get involved in high speed rail.
 
I don't care for Governor Skeletor (otherwise known as Rick Scott, FL) but he made a brilliant decision not to get involved in high speed rail.

Buckeye, that is what got me started on this thread in the first place. Back then I was thinking "wouldn't it be cool to have a high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando". That was just for starters. Then add Miami. Everyone thought this was great but Gov. Scott and his team analyzed all this and determined that Florida could not afford all the cost overruns, maintenance, etc. Just couldn't produce the ridership. He gave the money back to Washington. I think he was right. Now there is a group of private investors looking at building a high speed rail line from Tampa to Orlando within the medium of I-4. Good luck.
 
Buckeye, that is what got me started on this thread in the first place. Back then I was thinking "wouldn't it be cool to have a high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando". That was just for starters. Then add Miami. Everyone thought this was great but Gov. Scott and his team analyzed all this and determined that Florida could not afford all the cost overruns, maintenance, etc. Just couldn't produce the ridership. He gave the money back to Washington. I think he was right. Now there is a group of private investors looking at building a high speed rail line from Tampa to Orlando within the medium of I-4. Good luck.

Whatever they estimate the cost to be, add a zero and that's going to be a more accurate estimate. If they say $4 billion, figure on $40 billion. Probably need to add a zero to the schedule too!
 
Buckeye, that is what got me started on this thread in the first place. Back then I was thinking "wouldn't it be cool to have a high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando". That was just for starters. Then add Miami. Everyone thought this was great but Gov. Scott and his team analyzed all this and determined that Florida could not afford all the cost overruns, maintenance, etc. Just couldn't produce the ridership. He gave the money back to Washington. I think he was right. Now there is a group of private investors looking at building a high speed rail line from Tampa to Orlando within the medium of I-4. Good luck.

Good for them, but I can't imagine how it makes financial sense. It will be interesting to see if they get it off the ground. From my front door to DisneyWorld!
 
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