First, let me say that I completely agree with everything that FlaGator has said. His observations are spot-on in my opinion. My wife bought a case of water two weeks ago before Irma had a name, and suggested that we top off both cars with gas. I thought she was overly cautious, but she was absolutely correct. And her approach did not create a shortage.
Since then, we have watched the weather observations closely, since we own and live in a home on the west coast of Florida. I also worked on the design, production, and launch of the GOES weather instruments, so I find much of this interesting from a technical perspective.
We have learned a lot in the process, and we continue to learn as we experience Irma. Next time, we hope to be more prepared with our home, dog, and MIL.
In 1983, when I was 23, Tropical Storm Barry was headed directly at me. I lived on the fifth floor of a barrier island, with a bedroom facing the hurricane. 60 mph winds were rattling the large windows. My roommate, who was about 40, assured me that he lived through David in 1979, and this would not be a problem. So I went to bed, slept well, and woke up to a Barry that fizzled out when it hit land. It did regenerate and strengthened to a hurricane after crossing Florida, and destroyed hundreds of homes in Mexico. At the time, I had no dependents, and nothing really scared me. Plus, my roommate was right – 60 mph winds, if they stay at that level, is usually not life threatening.
However, now, at age 57, I have witnessed various weather disasters. I am well aware of the differences between a category 1 and a category 5 hurricane. I have the time, money, and knowledge to make the safest decisions, along with my wife, for ourselves, our dog, and MIL.
My wife and I have studied the data and information from the National Hurricane Center at
National Hurricane Center. We supplement that with our local weather meteorologist, Denis Phillips. He has been outstanding, and has worked at all hours to provide us with up to date information. In the end, everyone makes their own decisions, based on their personal risk analysis or lack thereof.
There are certainly two extremes of people, and of course many in between. One extreme panics and the other extreme buries their heads in the sand. I witnessed the panic set in 5 days before Irma was predicted to hit – and this was when they still thought it was going to hit the other coast. While me and the car in front of me waited patiently to exit Ace Hardware on to Main Street, two cars passed us and jumped the curb to go around us. Amazing. Then the other extreme are those that “know” that the hurricane will turn, because they always do that around here. I recently saw a spaghetti diagram of the paths of all hurricanes in the last 150 years, and the entire state of Florida looked like a plate of spaghetti, minus the meatballs . Our 90 year old neighbor told us that hurricanes don’t hit our area because blah, blah, blah. I know a devastating hurricane hit in 1921 that split Hog Island into two islands, now called Caladesi Island and Honeymoon Island. But of course, people are willing to ignore that little fact.
Then there is the group of overly concerned family and friends. I spent a fair amount of time listening to and replying to messages to “get out now!”. Even a friend from Germany sent a headline and story from Germany that was over the top.
Early last week, my wife and I were having our typical post 5:00 am NHC report analysis. Yes, we have been getting up around 5:00 to update yesterday’s evacuation plans. After her caffeine had kicked in, and I thought she was ready for a technical question, I asked her if she had come across any definitions and analysis of the Cone of Uncertainty that predicts the path of the hurricane. From my statistics and six sigma work, and knowledge that the smart people at NOAA are, I assumed that there must be some defined uncertainty. Since she didn’t know, and I had exceeded her desires for a 6:00 am math class, I did a quick google search. What I found was a little surprising. The cone only represents 2/3 of hurricanes, and only the path of the eye. From the NHC, “Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time.” Wow, so I didn’t tell my wife that, but she did discover this truth a couple days later. Seems like a lot of possibility on the outside of the cone. 2/3 is only one sigma. Seems 2 sigma (95%) or 3 sigma (99.7%) would be more encompassing, but maybe the cone would be so large that more people would panic and evacuate.
Sorry about the long post, but it’s been a long two weeks. Just sitting here at Disney hotel, watching the wind and rain pick up. Take care everyone
