Expect a big jump in gasoline prices

[Venturer]

We filled both of our vehicles yesterday at Kroger for $1.45 a gallon. Of course that is with $1.00 off per gallon with points and 35 gallon limit. It has went from $1.85 to $2.24 in 2 weeks then yesterday it was $2.45 at 10:32 am when we got gas and then laast night coming in from my DD house i noticed it was $2.56. I figure by the time the weather warms up and we start camping again this summer will probably be over $4.00 at least. It is probably gonna get real, but we gotta blow that dough somewhere right?

 

[Chuckanut]

What is this substance you call gasoline?

It's a highly volatile, energy dense, flammable, cancer causing liquid that we store in various containers in our homes and use to power to our cars, lawnmowers, leaf blowers, etc. We ship it using the public highways that millions of people travel on every day.

 

[ivinsfan]

What is this substance you call gasoline?

Just because your car doesn't burn gas, doesn't mean your life isn't affected by the price of oil. Unless you walk everywhere you go..

 

[Out of Steam]

This cycle of cheap gas convincing everyone they should buy giant vehicles, followed by a supply shock leaving them selling their beasts cheap, has been going on since the 1970s.

It's like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. You think they would get it by now.

For those too young for my cultural reference:

https://slate.com/culture/2014/10/t...tball-away-from-charlie-brown-in-peanuts.html

 

[RunningBum]

It's also going to affect shipping costs, airline tickets, etc. Unless you are fully self-sufficient.

 

[Walt34]

It appears many folks here don't drive much in retirement. We put on 11k miles yearly for 2 cars and it has been fairly consistent over 3 years irrespective of gas prices.

We fully anticipate that once the stuff with COVID-19 is settled and everyone who wants to be is vaccinated we'll be driving and getting out a lot more.

 

[ls99]

As a retiree with no commute, drive when and where to I feel like, don't care what the price of gas is. Yes, I do like to drive my gas hog 99 suburban, 12-13 MPG. Or the Caddy at 22+, or the pickup 22+.


Recall moving trips to new house at around 400 miles round trip with the Suurban weekly or more often when gas was around $4/gal. The upside, Imoved the entire household with the Sub and trailer. Did not pay movers.

 

[Mark1]

This price blip will be short lived. You can bet that now that margins are good (at least for a couple of weeks), these refineries will be back up super fast.

I'm more curious what will happen post-COVID once things are back to normal. For example, some refining capacity has been removed from the system and will likely never return (see attached link which shows an unsold Shell refinery in LA, which was recently mothballed). Once a plant is shut down and the employees are all gone it is really hard to envision it ever coming back up into service. Maybe remote working (or electric cars) will balance out the loss of refinery capacity, but I bet refining margins will be much better in 2022.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_60568896-3bc5-11eb-992d-b3420d7d144d.html

 

[aja8888]

This price blip will be short lived. You can bet that now that margins are good (at least for a couple of weeks), these refineries will be back up super fast.

I'm more curious what will happen post-COVID once things are back to normal. For example, some refining capacity has been removed from the system and will likely never return (see attached link which shows an unsold Shell refinery in LA, which was recently mothballed). Once a plant is shut down and the employees are all gone it is really hard to envision it ever coming back up into service. Maybe remote working (or electric cars) will balance out the loss of refinery capacity, but I bet refining margins will be much better in 2022.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_60568896-3bc5-11eb-992d-b3420d7d144d.html

I did some engineering projects at the Shell Convent refinery a long time ago. It's primarily a middle distillate refinery producing jet fuel and now, I guess diesel. Those products are oversupplied in the marketplace due to lots of other bigger refineries adding diesel/jet A streams 10 years ago when demand was high. It's too small a refinery to upgrade to different products, etc, so it's a goner.

 

[Popeye]

I did some engineering projects at the Shell Convent refinery a long time ago. It's primarily a middle distillate refinery producing jet fuel and now, I guess diesel. Those products are oversupplied in the marketplace due to lots of other bigger refineries adding diesel/jet A streams 10 years ago when demand was high. It's too small a refinery to upgrade to different products, etc, so it's a goner.

Another of Megacorp’s customers bites the dust. I think we had a steam turbine there. Dealt with them for years / decades.

 

[aja8888]

Another of Megacorp’s customers bites the dust. I think we had a steam turbine there. Dealt with them for years / decades.

Thinking back, that refinery was built in the late 1960's by Texaco and was bought in the late 1980's by Saudi Aramco (SAR) and became Motiva when Shell joint ventured with SAR. I worked there on a few projects under the Texaco name.

Shame that many smaller refineries are closing and lots of jobs and tax base is gone.

 

[doneat54]

I actually drive more then I thought I would, and sometimes wonder where the hell I am going

I bought a junker Ford that my DW calls "Sh!tbox"15 months ago and have put 15k miles on it. Point in buying it was not to have to drive my 15mpg pickup that is really only needed as a plow and trailer towing truck when I need to move stuff. That, and I hike daily with our two dogs, so something I didn't care about getting dirty was just right.



Typically make one round trip to the lake house a week, that's 116 miles. 2 round trips a week typically to the gym at 66 miles per week. So I can't really figure out how I am doing 1k a month. I do run errands most days but they are usually very short trips.

In any case, $2.50, $3.00, 3.25 a gallon isn't going to rattle me. And I agree, any jump from the TX freeze will be relatively short lived.....

 

[ls99]

Intersting question about gasoline, diesel distillation residue for making tar asphalt etc..


If gasoline cars are done away with yet still there are many diesel trucks which need fuel, what to do with the gas, naptha and whatever else is coming off the distillation column. Make more plastic stuff?
I have some peripheral guess as to the refinery process, maybe the Petrochem crowd can eleaborate.

 

[Koolau]

I've seen local station prices jump almost 50 cents within the past week. Good news: In times past, Costco prices have remained stable for quite some time following most of the "price shocks." Better news: I haven't bought gas since last year! I'm down to about half a tank on one car - other car quit running and I haven't even tried to find out why (spark or fuel - not sure which.)

Not to start a Four Yorkshiremen episode, but I didn't even spend $100 on fuel last year due to Covid. YMMV

 

[Mark1]

If gasoline cars are done away with yet still there are many diesel trucks which need fuel, what to do with the gas, naptha and whatever else is coming off the distillation column. Make more plastic stuff?
I have some peripheral guess as to the refinery process, maybe the Petrochem crowd can eleaborate.

Right now, steam cracking into ethylene/propylene is the most obvious place to put gasoline range material. However, the migration will be slow and in the end the gasoline range material will just follow the money.

 

[ERObjd]

A tank of gas probably lasts us a month we have an 09 Sonata that gets very good mileage and a 2010 forester that gets worse mileage. This winter had seen lots of snow here in Lincoln Ne (over 40 inches so far) so we drive the Forester 90% of the time in the winter because it is all wheel drive. In spring, summer and fall we mostly drive the Sonata because it does lots better on fuel. Feel blessed being both retired and we don't have to be in the rat race. When working and driving fuel expenses can certainly take a considerable bite out of the monthly budget. I drove about 80 miles a day for many years mostly hiway and my wife drove about 20 miles a day mostly city . The amount we each spent on fuel, and vehicle maint was considerable. Nice to be retired and not buying much fuel. Though we mostly drive the Forester this winter I still take the Sonata out on the road every couple weeks to keep the battery charged up.

 

[jfn111]

The big Chevy Traverse sits most of the time since we are doing little traveling. (Facebook insists on showing me pictures of past years Florida travels).
I use the Honda CRV for real estate and put on about 900 miles a month. Sam's Club is still hanging at $2.22 but the chain stations are pushing $2.50.
Most of my mileage I can write off so I don't get to worked up over gas prices.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not to start a Four Yorkshiremen episode, but I didn't even spend $100 on fuel last year due to Covid. YMMV

You made me look up what I spent on gas (mostly at Costco) on my Quicken screen. Last year, I spent $308.

You had me beat. But then, where can you go on an island?


PS. In 2019, pre-Covid time, I spent $461 on gas when at home, plus another $258 for gas while driving around Spain/France/Portugal.

The $258 was not as bad as I thought, considering the many kilometers that I drove, plus the high gas prices in Europe. Perhaps I missed counting some gas fill-ups, but not sure. It also helps that the rental car was a VW Golf, or something equivalent.

 

[Music Lover]

What is this substance you call gasoline?

It's how the food you eat gets to the grocery store. You can't live without it.

 

[NW-Bound]

It's how the food you eat gets to the grocery store. You can't live without it.

Speaking of food, diesel fuel also runs all the farm machinery. And natural gas is used to make fertilizer.

Come to think of it, when fossil fuel runs out, the world is in deep doo-doo. Hello, soylent green.

 

[ls99]

Wonder how all the EVs made out inTX during the power crash. How many used the EV to power their houses?

 

[REWahoo]

Wonder how all the EVs made out inTX during the power crash. How many used the EV to power their houses?

Some Texans power up through storm with help from their Ford pickup, Tesla

A Reddit user who goes by the screen name Razzooz posted a note saying that "My Tesla kept my family from freezing last night.” The family, including a newborn daughter, was able to sleep in the car in the garage to stay warm without worrying about carbon monoxide poisoning.

One [F-150] pickup truck owner said he had planned to use the built-in generator for camping trips. “I didn’t know I would wind up needing it for something like this," he said of the winter storm.

I said exactly the same thing, and managed to save over $50,000 by purchasing my generator without the optional truck.

 

[txtig]

Thinking back, that refinery was built in the late 1960's by Texaco and was bought in the late 1980's by Saudi Aramco (SAR) and became Motiva when Shell joint ventured with SAR. I worked there on a few projects under the Texaco name.

My first job out of college in the early 80’s was with a big engineering and construction firm in Houston. One of my early projects with them was a large revamp/upgrade of the Texaco Convent refinery. Learned a lot on that project.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

It's how the food you eat gets to the grocery store. You can't live without it.

----Checks Mr. Tightwad's 2020 expense records.

----Observes a 0 in the amount of money in the gasoline column.

----checks pulse

----currently at 60

----smiles, and puts away expense records.

 

[Music Lover]

----Checks Mr. Tightwad's 2020 expense records.

----Observes a 0 in the amount of money in the gasoline column.

----checks pulse

----currently at 60

----smiles, and puts away expense records.

Your gasoline expense might be $0 but that's only possible because you rely on someone else to use gasoline to ensure that your needs are met.