Hybrid Car Break Even Point

[eroscott]

One other rthing about electric plug-in vehicles....

So far many states have let slide the fact that owners of these cars don't pay state gas taxes that fund the highways. That is and will continue to change. I see no reason for people who drive gasoline powered vehicles to subsidize roads for those who drive electric vehicles.

My state is currently looking at a roads tax based upon total miles driven each year. How they would do this is beyond me. And, will it replace the gas tax or be piled on top? Or will they be merged together?

It would be nice to do road tax based on odo instead of gas. Even in the gas engine car world it is not even ... the Hummer or Ford F250/Expedition uses a lot more gas than the Prius or Civic!

Fuel taxes supposedly used for roads vary from state to state. Sometimes that money go to general purpose funds or they just get 'robbed' for pet projects by politicians.

Federal tax credits have promoted EVs being built. Tesla and GM will no longer have tax credits as they will hit the 200K number. Laggards like Ford and others will keep it tho. Too bad it didn't stop after the top 2 or 3 companies hit 200K so you didn't support the laggards.

Below via 'phaseout at bottom of page: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

 

[Totoro]

Road tax on miles driven implies a transponder in each and every car. Personally I don't see the point. A complex invasive solution for an ill-defined problem in my opinion.



Losing road tax income that comes with reduced gasoline use will indeed become an issue, especially in Europe. Very curious how various countries will solve that.

 

[ERD50]

It would be nice to do road tax based on odo instead of gas. Even in the gas engine car world it is not even ... the Hummer or Ford F250/Expedition uses a lot more gas than the Prius or Civic! ...

It does seem that miles (plus maybe a factor for vehicle weight) makes more sense for a road tax. Something tells me that a really 'fair' weight-based tax would mean that the smaller number of big rigs and cement trucks would pay almost all the tax. I would think that a considerable amount of the cost of construction is so that it can support those weights, and maintenance is probably largely a factor of those big rigs too (though some would just be time-based I guess).

Road tax on miles driven implies a transponder in each and every car. ...

Not at all. Many States in the US require annual inspections, so the odometer reading is captured there. We have a 2 year cycle in IL for emissions test, same opportunity (you could even self report on alternate years, they will 'catch' you next year).

... Personally I don't see the point. ....

Losing road tax income that comes with reduced gasoline use will indeed become an issue, especially in Europe. Very curious how various countries will solve that.

The point is in your own post!

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

Not at all. Many States in the US require annual inspections, so the odometer reading is captured there. We have a 2 year cycle in IL for emissions test, same opportunity (you could even self report on alternate years, they will 'catch' you next year).

I should expand: most proposed systems want to differentiate the type of miles driven: highway or local, peak traffic or not. Can't do that using singular inspection.

The point is in your own post!

It's an inefficient taxation system, why not just raise general taxes instead. We pay for most of our government that way.

 

[aja8888]

Losing road tax income that comes with reduced gasoline use will indeed become an issue, especially in Europe. Very curious how various countries will solve that.

Maybe they will just reduce spending by the amount of uncollected tax?

 

[meierlde]

I should expand: most proposed systems want to differentiate the type of miles driven: highway or local, peak traffic or not. Can't do that using singular inspection.



It's an inefficient taxation system, why not just raise general taxes instead. We pay for most of our government that way.

This handles the base costs for roads where adding the gantries etc don't make sense. The the freeways etc can add the systems including licenses plate capture or tag for the more highly traveled roads. In rural areas low use roads would not make sense. It is really just the freeways in urban areas that need the add ons. Of course many of the dreamers ignore the KISS principle in the extreme. The current gas tax system does not discriminate on the kind of road you are driving.

 

[ERD50]

I should expand: most proposed systems want to differentiate the type of miles driven: highway or local, peak traffic or not. Can't do that using singular inspection. ...

Never considered that, I don't recall hearing of any plan to differentiate the type of miles (not saying they aren't out there, I just never heard of it).

.... The current gas tax system does not discriminate on the kind of road you are driving.

Right, that's why it didn't occur to me, and I wouldn't think it would be an issue to be raised.

... It's an inefficient taxation system, why not just raise general taxes instead. We pay for most of our government that way.

OK. But taxes are a mish-mash anyway, no logic, no rhyme or reason. In some cases the people who use more services pay the least in taxes for them (makes sense in some cases, but not all), and in other cases we do pay related to use.

So I won't disagree with you on that, but I also won't go there, because I find it impossible to apply logic to our tax code, and I'll just get wound up in knots trying!

-ERD50

 

[gerntz]

But taxes are a mish-mash anyway, no logic, no rhyme or reason.

Great definition of government. Thanks.

 

[gerntz]

Cost forecasts in batteries have been notoriously poor, that's why. In some older attempts for 15 years out were beat within two years.

Just looked at a study from 2011 that predicted 2030 costs would be $240 kwh. We're already there, it's 2018. 12 years early.

If there is a trend break, there should be an explanation for why that applies. There isn't. To be clear: I don't know either what the future will bring. Historically, just applying the trend isn't a bad bet. The trend is -20% per annum.

Still, even if it ends up at $50 we have a 300+ mile range battery (100 kwh) for $5k. With a simpler engine and lower fuel costs, there's no way an ICE or hybrid car can compete anymore on price. The break-even point is somewhere around $100 / kwh pack price.

Found this WSJ article today interesting:

"To a customer looking to get the most utility at the best price (That be me), will electric cars ever be able to compete with gasoline-powered cars, short of government interventions that raise the price of and eventually prohibit gasoline-powered cars?

The answer is no. Mr. Musk himself has opined that gasoline should cost $10 a gallon. His big commitment to lithium-ion technology is tantamount to a bet that no battery breakthroughs are in the offing to fix the range and charging drawbacks that are the main handicap of electric vehicles."

"Electric cars are no solution to climate change, but having buyers believe they are, and having investors believe that government, media and green groups will treat them as if they are, is a key prop under Tesla’s stock."

"Mr. Musk has discovered, or invented, a market for electric cars. And that’s great. Whether buyers really want electric cars, or just want high-end emblems of green virtue, it can be a good business either way."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-last-temptation-of-elon-musk-1527029093

 

[Totoro]

Article is a bit lacking in numbers, alas. Even for an opinion piece. Example:

He could have aimed to become a niche maker of electric fetish objects, and done so at a price point that would not require endless subsidies from the taxpayer or stock investors.

Not a useful statement to me. Electric cars are in Europe already at a price point where they do not require endless subsidies. Of course, gas here is above $5 a gallon indeed (if my math was correct).

Whether Musk will make it with Tesla, who knows. I do believe he accelerated the timeline of an entire industry, and we're better off for it.

 

[gerntz]

Whether Musk will make it with Tesla, who knows. I do believe he accelerated the timeline of an entire industry, and we're better off for it.

I don't believe we're better for tax subsidies going to electric cars. Subsidize me instead.

 

[LastOfTheBoomers]

Article is a bit lacking in numbers, alas. Even for an opinion piece. Example:

Not a useful statement to me. Electric cars are in Europe already at a price point where they do not require endless subsidies.

I think China will drive the price point for the rest of the world with electric cars - if they get the technology and quality right.

 

[Chuckanut]

FWIW, most of the EV owners I know really praise how the EVs drive. They just like ti more than driving a piston engine car. And the lack of maintenance is also a plus for them.

I do have problems with the claim that the cars are zero emission.

I love Tesla as a car and if I had a spare 50-100K to burn I would buy one for the fun of it. Ultimately, SpaceX is Mr. Musk's one and only baby. He and Shotwell (another amazing person) have built something very special in SpaceX).

 

[Totoro]

True. Best proof of that is that he had to choose at one point to either float Tesla or SpaceX, as he ran out of cash to keep both private. SpaceX it was.

 

[ncbill]

FWIW, most of the EV owners I know really praise how the EVs drive. They just like ti more than driving a piston engine car. And the lack of maintenance is also a plus for them.

I do have problems with the claim that the cars are zero emission.

I love Tesla as a car and if I had a spare 50-100K to burn I would buy one for the fun of it. Ultimately, SpaceX is Mr. Musk's one and only baby. He and Shotwell (another amazing person) have built something very special in SpaceX).

You don't need to spend $50k for a fun EV.

A relative sells used cars for a living and his wife loves to drive the Smart EV he took in trade (~$5000).

It's just the two of them living down at the beach (roads flat as a pancake) so she uses the Smart EV as her 'run around town' vehicle.

Charges overnight using nothing more than a 120VAC extension cord, ~60 mile range.

 

[Totoro]

My mother's next car likely would be a same kind of thing - charging from her own solar panels.

I think she drives 2.000 km a year, never more than 80 km a trip.

 

[ERD50]

My mother's next car likely would be a same kind of thing - charging from her own solar panels.

I think she drives 2.000 km a year, never more than 80 km a trip.

If that 80 km is a round trip ( ~ 50 miles), then a used Nissan Leaf might suit her. I recall people saying that you can get these used cheap, partly because I think the newer ones have more range, and some of the older ones have lost some range. But they should still be good for an 80 km round trip I think.

Unless she produces an excess of solar during the day, and does not get paid for it (no net metering), I'm not sure what "charging from her own solar panels" gains her. It might work against her. If she is on time of day metering, she can charge at night when the rates are lower - let the solar panels offset the higher daytime rates.


-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

She has net metering, but no feed-in tariff if the meter drops below zero overall. So excess is wasted currently, and she likely will have that a little bit.


Regulations might change though.