Katrina II (aka Rita)

[Marshac]

Here we go again.   In terms of the human cost, I don't want to even think about it at this point (maybe the second time is the charm for the feds?). As far as economic costs, I doubt that the markets will shrug off a second relatively direct hit on the already thrashed oil/nat gas infrastructure a second time. Speaking of which... is anyone else worried about how much gold has gone up in the past few days?


From http://weather.admin.niu.edu/forecast.txt

EVENT #3: Rita. I looked at the latest model data and I just shook my
head. Here's what the media and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) AREN'T
telling you: the model late this morning shifted the track eastward from
what they are showing here as of 11 AM Monday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/153924.shtml?5day

The latest GFDL model, one of the best hurricane models out there, is in
fact showing a 150 MPH hurricane (strong category 4) slamming into
New Orleans on Friday, with the NHC model taking it right through
the city as well. The official NHC track will be adjusted eastward later
today; they like to be conservative and want to make sure this thing is
heading into Louisiana before they cause inevitable alarm along the Gulf
coast. However, they should have 60 hours of lead time on this one,
wherever it heads inland. The Gulf of Mexico has recovered almost
completely from Rita; the coolest water temperatures are at 86 degrees,
and 85 degrees will easily support a major hurricane. All indications are
that Rita will intensify rapidly once it gets by Florida and increase to
a category 4 or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale with
sustained winds of 135 MPH and higher. Barring unforeseen miracles, this
should hit the U.S. as a potentially catastrophic hurricane around Friday
somewhere along the Texas or Louisiana Gulf coast, potentially as strong
as Katrina.

As of 1 AM, here were the forecast model and NHC forecast tracks of
Rita. The latest GFDL, not shown, is further east and is near the track
of the "NHC98" model which also takes it into New Orleans.

Remember... it's 150 miles wide

 

[BUM]

Hi Marshac,

We are still dealing with the damage (not destruction, thankfully) from Ophelia. Here on the NC coast Ophelia hung around just long enough to really tear things up. Our dock sections were snapped in half like twigs and roof shingles are everywhere but on roofs and inside water damage is common.

Been too busy hauling lumber and banging nails to notice gold prices...yikes!

BUM

 

[justin]

Hey Bum, how did Carolina Beach weather the storm? I was there "working" a week before Ophelia hit thinking, "what a shame it would be if this place got flooded by a hurricane like Katrina." Unfortunately, that happened it sounds like.

 

[azanon]

Katrina II (aka Rita)

You're serious?   

There's Katrina, and there's all the other hurricanes. Well, there were a few other notable hurricanes, but this isn't going to be one of them.

Its just a typical (small) hurricane.   No Katrina here.

 

[brewer12345]

You're serious?   

There's Katrina, and there's all the other hurricanes.   Well, there were a few other notable hurricanes, but this isn't going to be one of them.

Its just a typical (small) hurricane.   No Katrina here.

I am hearing predictions that Rita could become a category 3 or 4 storm as it traverses the warm water in the gulf that fueled Katrina. If it does that and nails the LA or TX coast, it is likely that a substantial portion ofthe energy industry there will be shut down for a while (at best).

 

[Marshac]

I am hearing predictions that Rita could become a category 3 or 4 storm as it traverses the warm water in the gulf that fueled Katrina.  If it does that and nails the LA or TX coast, it is likely that a substantial portion ofthe energy industry there will be shut down for a while (at best).

This is what I have been hearing too (and cited above).... which is why I posted this. As an investor, it's important news as we already have a skiddish market.

 

[azanon]

I just think its a little early to be putting it in company with Katrina. I just glanced at Noaa's probability charts and 72 hrs from now they're putting an equal chance that it would be cat 1 as it would be cat 5. Its a little early to be freaking out over this.

But we know from very recent past experience that really bad hurricanes that cause massive damage are great for the stock market, or at worst, dont affect it at all. Was your point that we should be buying stock? ;-)

Azanon

 

[Patrick]

The Gulf of Mexico has recovered almost
completely from Rita. . . .

Did he mean Katrina?

 

[Marshac]

Was your point that we should be buying stock?  ;-)

I'm just concerned about my fuel costs

 

[REWahoo]

You're serious?

There's Katrina, and there's all the other hurricanes. Well, there were a few other notable hurricanes, but this isn't going to be one of them.

Its just a typical (small) hurricane. No Katrina here.

As of 5 PM Eastern, the National Weather Service announced Hurricane Rita is expected to strengthen to Category 4 by 2 PM Eastern time Wednesday.

 

[brewer12345]

As of 5 PM Eastern, the National Weather Service announced Hurricane Rita is expected to strengthen to Category 4 by 2 PM Eastern time Wednesday.

Cr@p on a stick! Lets just hope it doesn't turn more northerly than expected and head for the oil and gas infrastructure off LA.

 

[Marshac]

Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/20/2005 15:18 
Short  Medium  Long  Very_Long 
Oil  50.3% 8.6% 7.5% 0.0%
Nat Gas  66.2%  15.8%  5.8%  0.0


Definitions:
      Short: less than 10 days disruption.
      Medium: 10 to 30 days disruption.
      Long: 30 to 60 days disruption.
      Very Long: over 60 days disruption.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_gomex_oil.html

Also, there is a lot of refining capacity around the Huston area... something that production alone doesn't take into account

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Houston also tends to flood in thunderstorms as they overbuilt around it without adequate water retention pools. I'd hate to see a hurricane make it a bit inland.

 

[BUM]

Hey Bum, how did Carolina Beach weather the storm?  I was there "working" a week before Ophelia hit thinking, "what a shame it would be if this place got flooded by a hurricane like Katrina."  Unfortunately, that happened it sounds like.

Hi justin,

The beach survived with minimal damage. As reported, most damage ocurred due to the length of the sustained wind and rain. Ophelia just wouldnt go away. Army Corps of Engineers was in town yesterday measuring erosion. Good news/bad news. Much of the beach sand was pushed west and heaped up on the dunes, making them higher...thats good. Now one could want a staircase to get down to the beach...thats bad. However several sandbars have been formed 50 or so yards off shore and that sand is washing in...thats good.

Lots of shingles off roofs. Metal roofs fared better. On the sound side, waves were much larger than expected and dock and piling damage is common. One rookie tied his sailboat fast to a few pilings. Storm came in, everything floated up and the boat popped the pilings right out of the muck.

Compared to Katrina, we had a couple of rainy days. We are very lucky.

 

[azanon]

As of 5 PM Eastern, the National Weather Service announced Hurricane Rita is expected to strengthen to Category 4 by 2 PM Eastern time Wednesday.

NOW this hurricance is starting to look big.

Katrinia 2 though? Its going to have to top 200 billion in damage and 1000+ lives. I wouldn't go holding my breath.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

It's a category 4 already .

I calmly ignored the suggestion to buy gas before Katrina, but even though I was only a 1/4 tank down I filled up this morning ahead of Rita.

It may seem unlikely that Rita could be as bad as Katrina, but if it were to make a right turn and hit the New Orleans & Mississipi coasts it's be like kicking them when they're down, especially if residents were returing en masse with a broken public infrastructure. I'm starting to worry about the Houston area since that's where Rita's headed...like I said heavy thunderstorms have caused bad floods there in recent years, and I wouldn't care to see what a direct Rita hit would do to the area.

Back to New Orleans, I saw a news story this morning that a Louisiana University group sid the levees shouldn't have broken under Katrina, that the storm surge didn't top the levees and that there must have been a flaw in the construction or planning or something. The politics of that should go to a different thread, but from a safety aspect there is disagreement about the soundness of the levees and another cat 4 is headed in their general direction.

 

[azanon]

The levee in its original design is/was not intended to withstand a category 4 hurricane anyway.    The Corps has said pretty clearly that it is in a weakened state now, so yes a direct hit again by Rita would not be a good thing.

Katrina was a category 4 storm, the levee was designed to withstand up to a category 3, and it looks like that anaysis was correct (ie: it failed when a category 3 was exceeded).

Yeah it could put the hurt on Galveston, but its got its work cut out for it to top virtually destroying New Orleans as well as the Mississippi gulf coast.

 

[Marshac]

NOW this hurricance is starting to look big. 

Katrinia 2 though?  Its going to have to top 200 billion in damage and 1000+ lives.   I wouldn't go holding my breath.

Look beyond the actual costs from damage, and think about the potential consequences to the economy as a whole. Any further damage to the energy infrastructure will only send energy costs higher, and going into winter, $2 heating oil and $13 natural gas WILL affect the economy... and that's just household consumption.

In my mind, Katrina put us on very shaky ground going into Q4/Q1.... we could possibly recover prior to winter (natural gas stockpiles are above the 5 year average at this time for example), but as I said- if there is any significant damage, all bets are off, and Q4/Q1 will see a declining economy with a recession by Q2/Q3 of 2006. Just my opinion of course

Also- this $200B figure is insane. Not to seem cold, but when has it become the responsibility of the federal government to fully fund reconstruction for a city? This sets a dangerous precedent for future disasters (like 'the big one' we're waiting for in the PNW, or any fallout from Rita). Was anyone else watching the Forex when Bush opened our collective wallet and said 'take as much as you want'? I know the traders were... thankfully the fed increased the rate by 25bp and brought back the USD yesterday.

 

[MasterBlaster]

<Back to New Orleans, I saw a news story this morning that a Louisiana University group sid the levees shouldn't have broken under Katrina, that the storm surge didn't top the levees and that there must have been a flaw in the construction or planning or something.>

There is plenty of blame to go around for many parties with the New orleans saga. I read a news article that the army corps of engineers wanted to improve the New Orleans levies but were successfully sued by the Sierra Club to prevent levy improvements.

There is no doubt in my mind that an army of lawyers will now converge on this issue and try to sue anyone connected with the levees to recover damages.

 

[azanon]

Look beyond the actual costs from damage, and think about the potential consequences to the economy as a whole. Any further damage to the energy infrastructure will only send energy costs higher, and going into winter, $2 heating oil and $13 natural gas WILL affect the economy... and that's just household consumption.

I have 20K in a utility sector fund, drive economical cars (and only drive 8K miles/year), cant stand all the cars on the road/the big SUVs, and i'm environmentalist.  I hope gas prices go through the roof.   I was so happy when they passed 3 dollars per gallon.

Whatever it takes to get people to learn to respect and conserve our natural, non-renewable resources.

Also- this $200B figure is insane. Not to seem cold, but when has it become the responsibility of the federal government to fully fund reconstruction for a city?

I fully agree.  You should check out the charitable contribution thread where the majority in that thread are not only for them getting that money, but feel compelled to give over and above that out of their pockets and they also totally excuse their lack of foresight for buying things such as flood insurance or not leaving New Orleans when they were given a mandatory evacuation notice.

 

[Marshac]

Whatever it takes to get people to learn to respect and conserve our natural, non-renewable resources.

Mass transit does come into existence overnight. People don't change their tastes and preferences overnight either, nor do they suddenly require less heat into the winter.

The way to get people to understand the true costs of fossil fuels are through taxes- much like Europe does. Tax the fuel, spend on transit infrastructure. This cuts down on urban sprawl, and provides many transportation alternatives. While I was in Italy, it was mind blowing that I could take a train and pretty much get to wherever I wanted to go... we have no such infrastructure here in the US, and in the not-so-distant future of peaking oil and expensive energy, our shortsightedness will really begin to cost us. Supply shocks generally cause more harm than good I think.

 

[TromboneAl]

when has it become the responsibility of the federal government to fully fund reconstruction for a city?

Let's say the government had handled the evacuation flawlessly. Would they still be writing blank checks for reconstruction?

 

[azanon]

The way to get people to understand the true costs of fossil fuels are through taxes- much like Europe does. Tax the fuel, spend on transit infrastructure. This cuts down on urban sprawl, and provides many transportation alternatives. While I was in Italy, it was mind blowing that I could take a train and pretty much get to wherever I wanted to go... we have no such infrastructure here in the US, and in the not-so-distant future of peaking oil and expensive energy, our shortsightedness will really begin to cost us. Supply shocks generally cause more harm than good I think.

That sounds great! I'm all for that.

But i still mean what I say about energy prices; I profit both monetarily and personally seeing them go up, so from where i'm sitting all the better if Rita knocks out another 10-15 refineries and oil rigs.

 

[brewer12345]

That sounds great!   I'm all for that. 

But i still mean what I say about energy prices;  I profit both monetarily and personally seeing them go up, so from where i'm sitting all the better if Rita knocks out another 10-15 refineries and oil rigs.

I'm not sure I would be so eager to see that, even if I had a big investment in natural resources. If more production/refining stuff gets trashed, energy prices may well go high enough to push the economy into a recession at the same time inflation is spiking. Remember all those historical simulations about the worst time to retire? 1966 was at the top of the list because of a prolonged period of "stagflation".

 

[Marshac]

I'm not sure I would be so eager to see that, even if I had a big investment in natural resources. 

Agreed. No part of the economy can function in complete isolation from the rest.