An allegory of competition between 1978 and 2028...
Jedediah (GED to his friends) has real problems handling government school. Jeds parents have succumbed to the futility of pushing back against the system and settled for mediocre day care with a healthy dose of sports to keep Jed occupied. Jed's not a bad kid, but he tends to get pushed toward an underperforming crowd of malcontents, which includes a few bad apples. GED is treading water at best, hoping to age out of the system before it ruins him. At worst, he could get caught in the intake funnel for the school to prison pipeline.
Phineas Frederick is too smart for his own good (his friends call him PhreD). School is an easy game. Supplying approved facts while sitting is second nature. The truth is what they say it is, and they only need to hear it repeated. Phred can handle the abstractions of mathematics well enough to get by, covering weaknesses with memorization and socially approved convention. Phred is college material and he knows it.
In 1968, GED gets to work. He doesn't stand out in the millions of boomers, success might follow a combination of luck, hard work and long hours. Promotions will be few and raises are grudgingly earned. If he can develop his skills via on the job training or mastery of a niche skill, Jed will likely do OK. GED is at much more risk for injury and chemical exposure and he earns the scars of a blue collar life. And GED is stuck with corrupt pension funds for retirement.
PhreD on the other hand faces little academic competition. He carries a part time job through college, transfers some credits and gets an advanced degree that makes him stand out. The workload takes its toll on his health, but he graduates without debt and is well on his way to an improved standard of living. PhreD has made a wise investment in his future, given the labor market and education costs of 1968. PhreD might get into management, has early access to a 401k retirement plan, perhaps stock options. Phred advances his earnings power and gains $500k above and beyond GED in the next ten years.
Fifty years on, PhreD and GED's lookalike grandkids are in similar straits in 2018 and the apples have not fallen far from the trees. But the costs in the labor and education markets are radically different now than 1968.
PhD (PhreD's son) has been developing his college prep resume since baby steps. All his credentials are carefully arranged to impress. PhD's plan is to get the highest socially ranked credentials available to him. Since everyone gets government loans, cost is no object for PhD. Somewhere in 2028 he will worry about getting a job. By then he will be almost 30, and that's a lifetime away for PhD. He might be dead by then, why worry! The remote learning during the C19 scare was perfect practice to coast to the finish line and set up for another decade of the artificial achievement environment called higher ed.
GED would rather die than suffer another minute of academic nonsense. School medicated him to make him more compliant, but he grew wary of the side effects. The thought of another decade of classroom attendance in pursuit of credentials gags him. GED knows that college will joyfully bury him in debt, and suspects it has no influence on his success. No diploma mill for him. The C19 scaremongering reinforced for him what a unproductive waste of time government school can be.
I wonder what 2028 looks like?
PhD has a decent academic record but his specialty area is suffering a temporary setback and there is little hiring. His options are switch degrees, spend 18 months as a post-doc, or take a much lower position for which he is overqualified risking low salary expectations for the rest of his career. PhD has no savings, no health care, no retirement, no children, and a mountain of debt around an uncertain future. PhD is pushing 30 and has only a vague notion of earning a living, confusing it with applying for grants. PhD has never held a full time job.
GED made $21 an hour to start and saw rapid advancement with his employer. GED's employer paid for his training needs, no cost to him. GED has an excellent 401k with a small amount put by for retirement and a middling health care plan. GED has a 10 year employment track record, a home mortgage and car loan, his kids are coming out of the employer sponsored day care and the oldest is home schooled part time and has shared sports programs. GED is considering stretching a hobby into a part time job, once the kids get older.
The environment changed, and as a result PhD and GED earnings power reversed between 2028 and 1978. Labor markets are much tighter so GED got a premium for being on time, while PhD took on education loans. PhD faced a glut of credentials, overpaid with government debt; competed fiercely for the privilege. PhD sold his present and mortgaged his future for something of low value.
GED is dismayed to find PhD advocating for student loan forgiveness! PhD wants GED to pay for his credentials!
