Life Expectancy

[Big_Hitter]

Interesting. Of course they have to make some predictions into the future.

But is there a feedback mechanism to tune the model with real-life data as things unfold?

yes, the SOA does mortality studies every 5 years or so, I believe

 

[Independent]

Interesting. Of course they have to make some predictions into the future.

But is there a feedback mechanism to tune the model with real-life data as things unfold?

In the Social Security actuaries' cohort tables I referenced, the actual history replaces the projections, and the projections are regularly updated.

 

[kcowan]

But when he got to 93.5, his life expectancy got bumped up also.

Actually it was 94.2 when he got to 93.5 so he beat it even at the last! My son and I stood on either side of his death bed and his grip was amazing even though he was unconscious.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Actually it was 94.2 when he got to 93.5 so he beat it even at the last! My son and I stood on either side of his death bed and his grip was amazing even though he was unconscious.

he lived a long life - I'll take 94.2 any day

 

[Car-Guy]

Ha, ha. A near death experience will do that.

That's why I quit riding motorcycles. To many close calls. I don't lead a healthy lifestyle but motorcycles got my attention (more than once) as too risky for me. Probably my riding style, which I refused to change, significantly increased that risk.


There are only two things that I've really enjoyed in life but quit due to higher risks. Smoking and motorcycles.

 

[Big_Hitter]

There are only two things that I've really enjoyed in life but quit due to higher risks. Smoking and motorcycles.

I quit drinking too

 

[Car-Guy]

I quit drinking too

I've been able to just "cut back" on my drinking to just a few a week. Couldn't seem to do that with smoking. That was all or nothing for me.

 

[Winemaker]

I quit drinking too

Most of the longevity calculators listed in this thread, give you a 1 year "bonus" for imbibing alcoholic beverages. I will add " responsibly imbibing in alcoholic beverages", but I may be biased.

 

[kcowan]

Most of the longevity calculators use drinking to estimate the odds of drunk driving killing you.

 

[Rianne]

More likely, if you slept significantly less, you'd knock it down to about 5; longevity and sleep are not independent. Type "Matthew Walker" into your library web site and read his book. I was convinced.

I'm listening to his TED talk right now.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Most of the longevity calculators listed in this thread, give you a 1 year "bonus" for imbibing alcoholic beverages. I will add " responsibly imbibing in alcoholic beverages", but I may be biased.

what if you've already hit your limit? still get the one year?

 

[Big_Hitter]

I've been able to just "cut back" on my drinking to just a few a week.

that's awesome!

 

[NW-Bound]

Actually it was 94.2 when he got to 93.5 so he beat it even at the last!

Can a person age faster than the government updating the life expectancy tables?


"Say what", I can hear someone ask.

Sorry, but I just finished watching a Fermilab Youtube video on how the universe is expanding faster than the speed of light, such that there are galaxies that we will never see, no matter how many billions of years we are willing to wait.

 

[kcowan]

Can a person age faster than the government updating the life expectancy tables?

I think he just spent his whole life at the 80th percentile of the life expectancy curves!

I use 80% to account for the worst case for how long my stash will last. The spread between 20% and 80% is something like 14 years. Add in my younger wife and there is another few years.

 

[Rianne]

Just listened to a Terri Gross podcast (interview) with Geriatrician MD (Dr Louise Aronson). Interesting medical info regarding how the body changes when we age. Medicines react differently and the immune system changes dramatically. How meds affect the organs, especially kidney and liver. Good listen but approx. 50 minutes. There is a summary if you don't want to listen to the interview.



https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ng-elderhood-shows-how-geriatricians-can-help

 

[robnplunder]

That's why I quit riding motorcycles. To many close calls. I don't lead a healthy lifestyle but motorcycles got my attention (more than once) as too risky for me. Probably my riding style, which I refused to change, significantly increased that risk.


There are only two things that I've really enjoyed in life but quit due to higher risks. Smoking and motorcycles.

I tried riding motorcycle a few times and I liked it. But, I am absent minded at times when I am driving. I will be the same way when I ride motorcycle. I stopped riding bicycle b/c I ran into a few accidents caused by being absent minded. Riding motorcycle will significantly curtail my longevity. I am sure of it.

 

[Kroeran]

After a few close calls on my motorcycle I decided to become a vintage sports car guy. 58 MGA

 

[msanniee]

I’m a 1954 baby too. I sure don’t feel as if I’ll be dead in less than 10 years.

 

[Rascal]

I just turned 68, retired in 2010. This calculator says I'm going to live to 105!

How depressing!

 

[steveprior]

I am 53 and live in the UK. I retired at 51.

This calculator https://www.confused.com/life-insurance/life-expectancy-calculator
suggests I will live to 53 if I:

Smoke 20+ a day, have more than 3 hours of passive smoking, do no exercise, eat lots of fried/fatty foods, eat no fruit or vegetables, have an unhappy relationship with 3 or more traumatic life events, with no friends and both parents dead before 75, and overall very unhappy. Maximum 8 more months..

Luckily I am the complete opposite to those things (but I used to smoke) so it reckons I'll live to 91
I'll take that!!!

 

[joeea]

I just turned 68, retired in 2010. This calculator says I'm going to live to 105!

How depressing!

Not sure why you would find that depressing. But I'm sure the calculator doesn't say that you must live to 105. You always have choices.

 

[ychuck46]

Banking on it

May you all beat the tables and help to bankrupt the SS system!

We're planning on it, Koolau. Continued best wishes to you!

 

[Independent]

I just turned 68, retired in 2010. This calculator says I'm going to live to 105!

How depressing!

That calculator requires a month/day/year birthdate, an email address, and a statement that you accept their privacy policy.

I put in a fake birth date, but I'm not going to give them my real email.

 

[gnawbone]

Yeah, about averages ...

A black belt where I worked made a comment once about averages, it went something like this:

If a guy has one foot in a bucket of ice water and the other foot in a bucket of near boiling hot water, on average, he's fine.

Simple, eh? Average Life Expectancy is 78.6 years.

Maybe not that simple. That 78.6 is the average for men and women for persons born in 2010. Since you weren't born in 1910, is there another way of looking at age?

Try this:

https://www.infoplease.com/life-expectancy-birth-race-and-sex-1930-2010

It's the average life expectancy based birth year. Much ado about nothing, except that you might want to see how you're doing compared to the odds.

For example, if you were born around 1960, your average life expectancy would be age 70.

In my case, when I was born, life expectancy, would be 62.(now 83)

Yes... averages are meaningless, but can give a sense of perspective.

An aside... this year, for the second year in a row, life expectancy will be shorter than the year before.

https://fortune.com/2018/02/09/us-life-expectancy-dropped-again/

 

[ychuck46]

Grim Stat

"An aside... this year, for the second year in a row, life expectancy will be shorter than the year before."

Due to two reported reasons, suicides and drug overdoses. Sad.