Re: Thanks, Roger and, uh, Ted.
So absent that, what things can one do to avoid this problem that you see coming?
Mikey
As I understand the forecast, Mikey, the theory is that we'll have trillions of Baby Boomer dollars chasing ever-shrinking resources. (Ted, please correct me if I'm misinterpreting.)
Clearly this economic model glosses over the Chinese exporting business plan. And all of the "graying America" fuss ignores the effects of immigration & outsourcing. But let's presume that the future comes as Ted prognosticates it. (The risk of ignoring it could be fatal.)
For those not "lucky" enough to get a COLA'd pension (or to get their assets shot off earning one), an ER plan still has to account for inflation and large capital expenses-- rising healthcare premiums, new roof, new cars, weddings, fantasy vacations, and beer. ER portfolios based only on a budget forecast and a CPI are at best deluded and at worst dangerous.
Bud Hebeler's "Analyze Now!" website advocates an assumed 2% after-tax after-inflation return. So if you're withdrawing 4%/year, there's eventually gonna be a problem. He also capitalizes large expenses. OTOH his spreadsheets are iterated annually and based on the previous years' expenses so that the withdrawals don't stray far from the path. He knows a lot of impoverished "Social Security widows" so he's very conservative.
On the income side, I'd advocate a middle ground-- 3% and all reasonable projected capital expenses. I'd also work very hard at a healthy lifestyle or plan on raising healthcare costs at least 10-15% annually after age 50. If that isn't enough, then the ER lifestyle should also start out debt-free with home equity. If that STILL doesn't cut it then I'd plan part-time work or, even better, passive real-estate rental income.
But far greater gains can be made on the expense-reduction side. Dr. Phil has a dozen of his morbidly obese clients slashing their food budgets and their medical bills while losing tons of weight. That's an exaggeration for most of us, but anyone with a bodymass index higher than 27 can greatly reduce their healthcare costs by getting back down to fighting trim.
In ER, your time is simultaneously worthless (0$/hour) and your greatest asset. It can be used to take over all of those things we outsourced while working-- not just cleaning & yardwork, but also auto & home maintenance, financial management, tax preparation, shopping, and food shopping/preparation. It's very difficult to raise your ER income by 5-10% but it's very easy to lower your expenses by 20% while becoming healthier and wiser. (Then you can roam your neighborhood charging $25/hour to do THEIR outsourced tasks.) Instead of chasing consumer products with my dollars, I'll be simplifying and living frugally. The Dollar Stretcher website has tons of examples that frugal living is not deprivation. I think that sidesteps Ted's entire debate about a consumer-oriented lifestyle.
Other ER choices are mutually exclusive. It's probably difficult to raise more than two kids on ER, especially if you're planning to subsidize their college tuition. It's probably an overwhelming life change to move to a low-cost area (like Iowa?!?) or to give up a car for public transportation. (I don't watch much TV, but life without RoadRunner is not worth living.) It may also be difficult to be a perpetual traveller like the Terhorsts.
But every generation has solved just about every problem in unanticipated ways, and the graying society is not unsolveable. I don't know the solution but I'm going to keep overcapitalizing my retirement portfolio and underspending my budget just in case...