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Southern California Housing Market
Old 04-14-2005, 10:17 AM   #1
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Southern California Housing Market

I was thinking that obviously the market is overinflated like crazy.... but then, I got to thinking, maybe it's not THAT bad.

Much of So Cal especially is inhabitable desert, yet the population density, for US standards, is crazy.

I think places that are already built where people should not live if it wasn't for modern technology (desert areas) like Riverside, where there is plenty of space, the prices are way overinflated.

But what about more desirable places like San Diego or LA? Is there anybody that things the recent runup has a little to do with the fact that houses were pretty undervalued after the real estate slump of the mid 90s?

My parents bought their home in SD for around 300k in 2001, it's appraised at 560 now. Probably won't stay that way, but I can't help but think it's never dipping as low as 300k ever again either.

But then again, maybe i am wrong.
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Re: Southern California Housing Market
Old 04-14-2005, 10:46 AM   #2
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Re: Southern California Housing Market

Thats what puzzles me about my area (north of sacramento in the central valley).

Tons...I mean TONS of open land. 200 acre farms everywhere you look. Yet homes go up $50-100k a year and they build on postage stamp size lots. In Folsom a little ways to the south, home prices are through the roof and the build density is as high as anywhere in the bay area...north of highway 50...south of highway 50 - four lanes away - tens of thousands of acres of unbuilt land.

I can see it in the bay area or manhattan, where there is a limited land resource. But not here.

Guy that lives across the street from me bought 40 acres a few miles from here ten years ago for under 100k. Bulldozed some holes in the ground that happily filled with water due to the high water table, stocked them with fish. Annually clears large open swaths to encourage game to move into the area. Does a little hunting and fishing on it, plans to build a mcmansion next year and move.

Which is really bumming out Gabe...they had twin baby girls a week after he was born.

I was already anticipating the knock on the door and the demand that my son stops asking them to 'play doctor'...
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Southern California Housing Market
Old 04-14-2005, 02:09 PM   #3
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Re: Southern California Housing Market

- tens of thousands of acres of unbuilt land.
Isn't that land owned by Ted Turner or Ahnold Schwarzenegger? Maybe they're just not ready to sell yet...

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Re: Southern California Housing Market
Old 04-14-2005, 02:17 PM   #4
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Re: Southern California Housing Market

These conversations about California Real Estate remind me exactly of the Tech Stock talk of 1999. Dell, Intel etc. etc. - You can't lose.

I'm no expert of predicting bubbles, but this has all the signs.

I take great comfort that no one likes stocks here. Not even me!
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