100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

[Sam]

You're welcome, ash.   It was not something I wanted to do, but given the choices, I had to take the lesser evil.

Sam

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I see what you mean now, and I agree. But this analogy should not be limited to the "Early Retirement decision". This analogy applies to life, from birth to death.

EXACTLY.

I *think* that was point in another thread where I mentioned that people working and sitting on the ER fence discount their existing risks of continued working. They're already slow boiled frogs in the pot they're in. For someone with a major commute, I wonder what the risk of accident from the daily commute is vs the chances of running out of money using a 60/40 balanced fund and a 4% withdrawal...

A bus can hit you no matter what. Whether you're ER'ed, still working, have bulletproof cheap healthcare, 10 million bucks set aside...

Ya got a plan for the bus? Putting on a second bag or standing in the breakdown lane just isnt going to cut it. The bus might veer over into the breakdown lane and get you anyhow.

 

[samclem]

Today's cheery thought:

"You fall out of your mother's womb, you crawl across open country under fire, and drop into your grave."


Quentin Crisp

 

[retire@40]

Today's cheery thought:

"You fall out of your mother's womb, you crawl across open country under fire, and drop into your grave."

Quentin Crisp

Sometimes life is a crawl and sometimes not...

http://tinyurl.com/onkwy

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

When I was 19 years old, I decided to escape from Vietnam by boat. My estimate chance of success is around 50%. I'm somewhat spoiled now after 28 years in the US, but I think I can live with 90%+ chance success Cheesy

Guys, I think Sam meant a 50% chance of not dying in the attempt. You want risk, this is risk!

Sam, take 6% if you want. You've already won the lottery, IMHO. Glad you could make it.

Best of luck,

Gypsy

 

[Sam]

You've already won the lottery, IMHO. 

I did.  Thanks Ed.