Live And Learn
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Using FIRECalc for a 45 year period to age 95 I get 100% success.
Someone mentioned that there are fewer 45 year periods to review and that it might be good to break it down into two smaller periods. Sounds like a good idea, so I tried it two ways:
Method A:
1. 25 year period which assumes I am 70 years old and start SSI. Also assumes reduced HI costs due to Medicare. Calculated necessary starting portfolio fior 95% success
2. 20 year period starting today. Calculated success rate leaving the amount calculated in step 1 in the "leave money in my estate" box.
* Success rate --- a very scary 75%
Method B:
1. 20 year period starting today. Calculated success rate and looked at the lowest portfolio value from FIRECalc
2. 25 year period using the lowest portfolio value as my starting point. Assumed SSI and reduced HI costs.
* Success rate --- an even scarier 42% where the first line crosses zero at 12 years (age 82).
Being the way I am, this has me worried, since the wheels to leave Megacorp have already started to turn.
Is there a flaw in my methodology ? Does using the 2 periods as above make an assumption about two "worst case" 20 - 25 year periods occuring back to back, which would discount the results ? Is there another way to run this "two shorter period" analysis ?
Someone mentioned that there are fewer 45 year periods to review and that it might be good to break it down into two smaller periods. Sounds like a good idea, so I tried it two ways:
Method A:
1. 25 year period which assumes I am 70 years old and start SSI. Also assumes reduced HI costs due to Medicare. Calculated necessary starting portfolio fior 95% success
2. 20 year period starting today. Calculated success rate leaving the amount calculated in step 1 in the "leave money in my estate" box.
* Success rate --- a very scary 75%
Method B:
1. 20 year period starting today. Calculated success rate and looked at the lowest portfolio value from FIRECalc
2. 25 year period using the lowest portfolio value as my starting point. Assumed SSI and reduced HI costs.
* Success rate --- an even scarier 42% where the first line crosses zero at 12 years (age 82).
Being the way I am, this has me worried, since the wheels to leave Megacorp have already started to turn.
Is there a flaw in my methodology ? Does using the 2 periods as above make an assumption about two "worst case" 20 - 25 year periods occuring back to back, which would discount the results ? Is there another way to run this "two shorter period" analysis ?