5% or more withdraw

Not sure if this is relevant but I started playing with TR Price's "Personal Rate of Return". It's horrendously complicated but it calculates your original investment, additions, gains, losses, and withdrawals over various periods of time.

Since my own 'inception date' in 2005 my annual PRR is 5.68% which includes my ~4% (+/-) withdrawals (no additions). IOW, factoring in my withdrawals over the past 14 years, my portfolio average has been up 5.68% annually.
 
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Currently I'm taking out 3%--I'm 60 and DW just retired (4 yrs younger). When my ideal parttime online gig runs out next September, we plan to take out between 5-6.5% (worst case if we hit a market crash) in 2021-2023. IN '24 I'll take SS and the withdrawal will reduce to somewhere between 3.5-4.5% (probably). In '28 with DW at full SS age, that chokes back probably between 2.7%-4%, likely near the midpoint, although this is 30-40% more than we currently spend, at what seems generous spending levels, with a lot of travel and a new Silverado bought last year. I'll probably roll unneeded/unspent funds to a Roth + gifts to the DSs and grandbaby for education. Currently, I'm stashing unspent funds to a brokerage account with mainly CEF munis and bond funds, with a smaller dash of stock ETFs. I'll draw dividends/capital gains from it partly in '21-'24.



Intellectually, I'm fine with a 4.5-5% withdrawal rate right now (and probably ad infinitum) since planned withdrawals down the line are about 50% more than needed expenses. Actually spending planned withdrawals is another matter. The key here on the withdrawal rate is the slack for travel and other expenses that easily can be cut back (and we're sending monthly money to my mother, which at some point will end--she's 86--hopefully not soon.) It's like a theoretical variable withdrawal rate. Some here use a "kitty" for unspent withdrawals which is similar to what we are planning and doing.


Obviously, what I'm doing/planning is in part an attempt to anticipate/somewhat lessen AMDs, which when we both are 70 could be quite intimidating, particularly in an extended bull market, which I don't expect but which could happen. It's a first world problem, which doesn't concern me much, actually.
 
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We have been retired since 2010 and have pulled out way more than 5% per year, but I started collecting social security this year and hubby starts next year. So our withdrawal will be under 2 - 3 % going forward.



Thank you [emoji4]. Seems like a good plan.
 
We've got a heapin' helpin' of recency bias goin' on, I fear.


I had a few work associates retire in 1999: "Anybody can make 15% in the stock market!"


We have not seen any serious inflation in a long time also. Rampant inflation is the tiger hiding in the bushes that I am concerned about.
 
And keep in mind ....



The '4%' rule, was an inflation adjusted amount of the original portfolio balance.... Which I am pretty safe in saying that no one has ever done. Mostly because if a 50% Market Downturn would occur people would 'pull in their horns' and cut spending, rather than take a 4% inflation adjusted amount into the teeth of a bear market.


With that said; why do we bother to discuss this 4% rule stuff? When it is NEVER executed. It is a planning tool..


So, did the OP actually mean an inflation adjusted 5% of his original portfolio balance? Or, did the original poster mean 5% of his remaining portfolio balance? Which is far safer than the standard 4% Portfolio definition. Or 5% of the original Portfolio Balance, and not inflation adjusted? ---



Maybe the Original Poster could chime in about what he/she actually means. Maybe the Original Poster could look at VPW which could provide a higher level of withdrawal with much greater safety than the standard '4%' rule would provide.



Cut throat,
I am thinking 6% first few years more than I need, however it will let us travel and move money from before tax to after tax. I hate to say this but most likely increase my after tax bucket. Once all ss kicks in and our rentals fill up we should be able to drop the percentage to 3-4% like everyone else or lower. We are building an rv park here in south Texas..... I may need more cash my first 2 years in retirement. Heck I haven’t left yet and it is open for me to return consultant in 6 months. I am very grateful to have these options.
But if the nest egg grows I plan (blow the dough) earlier than later. While our health lets us.
We worked to long not to enjoy our nest egg. It is not nearly as large as some but we should get by. All, thanks for the insight, I have followed this forum for last 4 -5 years. And learned a ton of info. I will share our journey good or bad for others to learn from starting April 1st 2019 last day of mega Corp.
 
All these calculators work fine if inflation is at or below what is assumed. That returns are at or above what is assumed. That people will spend at or below what is assumed. That you live at or less than what is assumed. That taxes are at or lower than you assumed.

That said, if anyone is good at making all those assumptions then you probably can make a lot of money by providing assumptions. [emoji39]
 
All these calculators work fine if inflation is at or below what is assumed. That returns are at or above what is assumed. That people will spend at or below what is assumed. That you live at or less than what is assumed. That taxes are at or lower than you assumed.

That said, if anyone is good at making all those assumptions then you probably can make a lot of money by providing assumptions. [emoji39]


So, you would advise to just keep working?
 
So, you would advise to just keep working?
If the results show that one will just barley squeak by, then that may be worth considering. But it was more a point that nothing is guaranteed despite what a dozen calculators may tell you, as they are all using the same basic assumptions and drivers.
 
If the results show that one will just barley squeak by, then that may be worth considering. But it was more a point that nothing is guaranteed despite what a dozen calculators may tell you, as they are all using the same basic assumptions and drivers.

Emphasis added.

I disagree. I think there are three classes of calculators:

1. Static calculators - the ones that assume X% returns, Y% inflation, $Z spending over W years with the same numbers used each year.

2. Historical calculators - FIREcalc, maybe portfolio visualizer site.

3. Monte Carlo calculators - not sure which ones are in this bucket.

I think each of these three classes of calculator use different assumptions and drivers, and will give generally different results even with identical input situations.

I agree that no calculator provides a guarantee about the future.
 
Emphasis added.

I disagree. I think there are three classes of calculators:

1. Static calculators - the ones that assume X% returns, Y% inflation, $Z spending over W years with the same numbers used each year.

2. Historical calculators - FIREcalc, maybe portfolio visualizer site.

3. Monte Carlo calculators - not sure which ones are in this bucket.

I think each of these three classes of calculator use different assumptions and drivers, and will give generally different results even with identical input situations.

I agree that no calculator provides a guarantee about the future.

Bolded - Flexible Retirement Planner and the Fidelity calculator are 2 examples of Monte Carlo simulations.
 
Bolded - Flexible Retirement Planner and the Fidelity calculator are 2 examples of Monte Carlo simulations.

One more Monte Carlo with good user interface: T Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator
 
You need to look at your ultimate withdrawal rate, after SS and any pensions have started. Many of us have relatively high WR before SS... often more than 4%... but our projected WR after SS is going is much lower.

You can get a reasonable estimate by reducing you nest egg by your annual SS time the number of years between ER and when SS starts. Then take your spending less SS and divide the result by the former.... so:

(spending - SS)/(nestegg - (SS * ER years without SS))



Thank you added calculation to spread sheet [emoji41]
 
I had a few work associates retire in 1999: "Anybody can make 15% in the stock market!"


We have not seen any serious inflation in a long time also. Rampant inflation is the tiger hiding in the bushes that I am concerned about.


15% in the stock market?!?!?!
Alas, retiring early or otherwise does not turn a fool into a wise man or woman.

+1 on inflation and a ragging Bear market. I haven't seen anything lately like the 70's Bear which tore chunk after bloody chunk out of peoples assets, and the 80's inflationary interest rates with its 12%+ mortgages.
And, I hope they truly were once-in-a-lifetime events.

FWIW, last years correction was not a Bear market. More like an enraged bunny rabbit.
 
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