900k in cash, where would you invest

SeanPizzle

Recycles dryer sheets
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We are still about 6 years out on retiring (based on DD college schedule). I have about 900k in cash that I have been waiting to invest. I think the market will correct I'm both equities and housing in the next 18 months.

Would you sit and wait for buying opportunities, get some CDs, or invest in hookers and blow?
 
Depends on what percentage the $900K is to my overall portfolio. Generally, I would work on determining what a comfortable asset allocation is for my current situation and goals and them I would implement that strategy. I would probably take six months to a year to bring myself into my target asset allocation given that, for me, $900K is about half my portfolio.
 
No one can tell you what is best for you but you asked what I would do so....

I would determine my asset allocation that allows me to not sell when the market turns south. Once I determine that allocation than I (not you, you need to do your own investment policy and follow it) would invest it all on that day per my chosen allocation.

Meet Bob worst market timer ever:

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiring-story-of-the-worst-market-timer-ever.html

"Bob made his first investment in the beginning of 1973, right before a 48 percent crash for the S&P 500. Bob then held onto stocks after the drop, saving a total of $46,000, and not getting up the gumption to commit more savings until September 1987—right before a 34 percent crash. Bob then continued to hold tight, making only two more investments before retirement, which came right before the 2000 crash and then the 2007 crash!

So how did “Bob” do after these 42 years of epic market misfortune? Actually, he made money. As the market successively made record highs, Bob turned the $184,000 he invested over the years ($6,000 in 1973, $46,000 in 1987, $68,000 in 2000 and $64,000 in 2007) into $1.16 million—for a total profit of $980,000. That represents an annualized return of roughly 9 percent, on a money-weighted basis. Even after accounting for inflation, Bob has increased his wealth substantially by investing in stocks."
 
Someone asked Warren Buffet a similar question, he responded "buy a low cost stock index fund and go back to work"


What I'd do with $900k and a 6 year or longer time horizon ? = 100% in VG Total Stock Index Fund.
 
I’d keep at least $150k in a cd ladder, put most of the rest into vanguard’s whole/global market fund, and probably put my notice in at work. Id then get serious about my delayed house maintenance: new furnace, water heater, deck. The roof might last another five years. I’d also get a new truck as my car is 16yrs old and getting a bit rattley. So I’d actually keep closer to $250k in cash and promptly spend about $100k.
 
I would wonder why I had 900K in cash and was waiting to time the market. Depending on how long you've been holding that much cash, you already missed a pretty good run up in equities and bonds this year. The answers that direct you to set an allocation you can live with in both good and bad markets are correct. If you can't arrive at what works for you, you may want to seek the help of an hourly adviser to start your retirement planning and investment policy statement.
 
There is nothing special about that $900K vs other investments you may have. Calculate an asset allocation including the $900K and see if you like it. If you do, leave the $900K where it is. If you don't like the AA, invest the dough to achieve the asset allocation you want.

That said, six years is long enough IMO for a heavy equity AA. We were near 100% stocks prior to ER and now 15 years later we are 75% stocks. YMMV. It depends on the size of your portfolio, your goals, and your spending. 25% is easily enough for us to ride out any turbulence.

If you decide to increase equities and are nervous, just dollar cost average the money into equities over six months or a year. The statistics say this strategy doesn't buy us anything -- but it can be comforting.
 
We are still about 6 years out on retiring (based on DD college schedule). I have about 900k in cash that I have been waiting to invest. I think the market will correct I'm both equities and housing in the next 18 months.

Would you sit and wait for buying opportunities, get some CDs, or invest in hookers and blow?

So you told us why you haven't invested the 900k... "I think the market will correct" you stated.

so IF the market corrects, what is your course, if it does not...what is your course?

You could ask the Crystal ball, and if you don't have one or yours is broken perhaps a Psychic might know what the future holds.

IF I had 900k cash, which I absolutely never would... I would plow it into equities immediately. BUT, I am not FIRE, and still accumulating.
 
We are still about 6 years out on retiring (based on DD college schedule). I have about 900k in cash that I have been waiting to invest. I think the market will correct I'm both equities and housing in the next 18 months.

Would you sit and wait for buying opportunities, get some CDs, or invest in hookers and blow?

You have already gotten conflicting advice, I might as well keep the streak going!

Six years is a decent length time horizon, wish it was a bit longer. Obviously you are trying to pounce on a correction and deploy your cash to buy bargains. The problem is you never know when that time might be. You need to do something with your cash. For example you could have been making $2,000 - $2,500 a month with it sitting in a couple of fairly safe bond funds.

You don't sound like an index fund investor to me.

With that mindset I would invest about $200K in some aggressive US large cap mutual funds that have a history of beating the index funds. These should be no load funds with a relatively low (for their class) expense ratio.

About $50K would go into the same thing in a US mid-cap fund. Another $50K would go into a similar US small cap fund.

I'd put $150K in large-cap foreign fund.

If you want to play around with individual stocks I'd limit the amount of money in this pool to $50K or less.

The rest of the money I would put in a US total bond fund.

This strategy will give you approximately a 60/40 equity/bond mix.

When the correction comes I would sell off a good chunk of the bond fund and buy into bargain equities, either individual stocks or mutual funds.

If you are OK with index funds I would allocate the $500K in equity index funds and the other $400K in index bond funds. When the correction comes sell from the bond funds and buy equities.

When the dust clears, reallocate your assets to an appropriate risk level.
 
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What is your objective with this $900k? Preserve it at all costs? Take a bit of risk and grow it?
 
Time to Buy Equities Again Is Fast Approaching, Says JPMorgan
By Namitha Jagadeesh
"The stock market is starting to look good again to JPMorgan Chase & Co..."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-fast-approaching-says-jpmorgan?srnd=premium

I inherited $300K and invested it immediately:
40% S&P index
40% NASDAQ index
20% short-term bond fund

But, that is me, not you.

P.S. You could "invest" in FedEx. Just fedex an envelope every day with a $1000 in it to me and in a few years, your "problem" is solved. PM me for my address.
 
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Last year the market dropped like a rock on 12/24-ish. I'd been waiting to buy but didn't have orders in. By the time I did put in an order I expected it to drop further and put in a buy order that was too low. Didn't get anything bought. Haven't bought since then, but by golly I've been shifting money around to the "high interest" rate savings accounts like mad as the rate drops further and further. Have had a buy order in for several two month cycles, but the market hasn't dropped to my wistful buy point.

Ah well, so it costs me a point or two or three to have cash ready to slap down in a real estate or market crash? I can live with that, though it is painful not having the money working hard all the time.
 
I'd split it 3 ways, 1/3 equities, 1/3 muni bonds and keep a third in cash.
 
... You don't sound like an index fund investor to me.

With that mindset I would invest about $200K in some aggressive US large cap mutual funds that have a history of beating the index funds. These should be no load funds with a relatively low (for their class) expense ratio. ...
I am immediately curious about what an index fund investor sounds like.

@SeanPizzle, you should realize that aggressive US large cap funds are statistically very unlikely to beat the index funds. Over five or ten years only a single-digit percentage do. 90+% fail. You should also realize that fund performance history has been statistically shown to not be predictive. Tracking the top 20% of funds in five years typically shows that in the following five years not even 20% of them remain in the top quintile even though random performance would predict that 20% of them would remain. IOW @ Qs Laptop's recommendations here are statistically indefensible.

Here are couple of videos that explain. Re "active" aka "aggressive" investing: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/videos/is-this-a-good-time-for-active-investing.aspx

Re predicting manager performance: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/videos/identifying-superior-managers.aspx
 
We are still about 6 years out on retiring (based on DD college schedule). I have about 900k in cash that I have been waiting to invest. I think the market will correct I'm both equities and housing in the next 18 months.



Would you sit and wait for buying opportunities, get some CDs, or invest in hookers and blow?



At 6 years out I was still 100% stocks. Is there an investment in hookers or is this just an expense?
 
I am immediately curious about what an index fund investor sounds like.

They probably don't sit on almost a million dollars waiting for a correction to capitalize on.

@SeanPizzle, you should realize that aggressive US large cap funds are statistically very unlikely to beat the index funds. Over five or ten years only a single-digit percentage do.

Yes, buy those.
 
We are still about 6 years out on retiring (based on DD college schedule). I have about 900k in cash that I have been waiting to invest. I think the market will correct I'm both equities and housing in the next 18 months.

Would you sit and wait for buying opportunities, get some CDs, or invest in hookers and blow?

Guns & ammo.
 
Only buy aggressive funds that go up, if they don't go up, don't buy them!!:facepalm:
Well, actually no. Over a year, about 1/3 of actively managed funds manage to beat their index benchmarks, regardless of whether the market is going up, down, or sideways. So even over such a short period the odds are 2:1 against their investors. Over that same year about 6% of them are closed or merged due to abysmal performance. Looking at five and ten years, over 90% of actively managed funds beat their benchmarks. Again, whether the market is going up, down, or sideways.

And the rest of the story is that past performance is not predictive, so there is no way to identify the tiny number of long term winners ahead of time. @Qs Laptop has no facts to contradict this because there are none.

This is settled science, although the financial industry desperately and constantly tries to keep the public from understanding these facts. The sad thing is that the hucksters are really quite successful at this.

The other amusing aspect is the naive idea that, if there was someone who could consistently and predictably win in the market, that he/she would be slaving away as a mutual fund manager, selling that expertise for a pittance. No chance.
 
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