Actuaries Longevity Illustrator

Interesting tool. I've seen this before.

My life expectancy (50% chance) is 86, DW is 89 and a 50% chance is that one or the other of use will live to be 92.

Given that SS crossover at 0% return is ~82 and at some return is later than 82, I am still comfortable with my decision to wait until 65, FRA or 70 to start SS.
 
Interesting. Gives both of us about a 55% chance of reaching 85 which is why I'm taking restricted now and my own at 70.
 
Both retired and have an 89% shot at 80. DW has a 14% more chance of living to 95.
 
The interesting thing to me is that I have nearly a 10% chance to live to be 100, but if I say here that I plan for the case where I live to 100 I'll probably get mocked by some people for "thinking that I'll live to 100" or some such poor misinterpretation. No matter to me, ~9% is a large enough possibility for me to be concerned about.
 
Rianne said:
My results show women live longer than men.
Click to expand...

That's well-known. Unfortunately, according to an article I read in an actuarial journal years ago, they tend to become frail and need more care at about the same age- so those extra years can be expensive ones.

I agree with Ian- it's VERY general. Family medical history, as well as your own, play a big part. If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
 
athena53 said:
If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
Click to expand...

Hint: If you just suffer from allergies, don't select General Health = Poor in this tool.

"Please assess your own health in very general terms. Think in terms of comparing your state of health to that of other people the same age as you, rather than the health of the general population. For instance, a very fit 75-year-old might answer “excellent” if he or she is in very good health compared to other 75-year-olds. Similarly, if you are a smoker, compare your health to that of other smokers. You could rate yourself "excellent" if your health is much better than other smokers your age. You are free to revise your answer to see how it changes the results."
 
Our financial plan calls for DW to live to 95 (20% probability) without extra care. But we have decided to blow some dough because of the great returns we have earned since 2002.
 
Ian S said:
I still think for many of us, this calculator is too general. These use more info and I suspect get you closer to a real number:
https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com/life-expectancy-calculator.html
Lifespan Calculator – Test Your Life Expectancy || NM
Click to expand...

Yeah, a lot more realistic...late 70s for me, but mid 80s if I improve my lifestyle.

Relatively few males in my family have made it past their early 70s, & even if they did their quality of life was poor after age 75.

OTOH I can easily see my spouse making it to her 90s.
 
Last edited:
It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
 
CRLLS said:
It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
Click to expand...

Same here. It’s got both of us at late 90s!
 
All the calculators have me going to 90.

Dad's dad lived to 92, although he started breaking down around 87.
Dad's mom is 87 and just started occasionally using a cane, stopped driving.
All other relatives are still alive (with exception of moms mom Cancer/dad Alcohol)
Looked back at dad's family history most men lived into late 80s.

I am very active (regularly run races, swim/bike/ski)
I eat fairly healthy but processed and sugar/fats catch me off guard sometimes.
DW lives a similar healthy life.

All of these factors lead me to plan to 99. I realize I still have like a less than 20% chance once I reach 85, but with knowing the above..I gotta "go long".:D
 
Both charts 'ballpark' DW and I at around 90. When I did this exercise just before I retired 3 years ago, we both ballparked around 85. I had to break it to DW her newfound longevity, and she was not that thrilled. I think she saw how her mother aged (poorly) and imagines that.
 
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