Anyone else a little frustrated with things right now?

[Mulligan]

Gross suggested PFF when he was on CNBC a few weeks back, maybe that's the preferred ETF for dummies. Its yield right now is 5.79%, but the ETF is down today.

Yes, that generally is considered "the big one". But my personal opinion only is I dont like bank non cumulative's and they are stuffed with those. And the issue is largely just financial issues, but that largely is the market. I dont like those onerous yearly expense fees draining yield too. I can buy safer, higher yielding ones with better yields. My issues cover dividends with after tax profit income by 50-70 times in a regulated monopoly environment with higher yields because I can buy the tiny illiquid issues mutual funds cannot.
Many junk trash issues cover dividends by 1 or less... And those oil/gas drilling company preferreds? Well they covered them a few years ago, now the preferreds are worthless from bankruptcy.

 

[Fedup]

Speaking of the frustration with the market, I often wish the market to crash hard, just to get it over with.

This time, I will go all in, I swear. Still have 27% in cash.

Me too. But even in 2008-2009, it went down slowly and went up slowly. Only in 1987 did it go down sharply in one day.

 

[NW-Bound]

It took 18 months for the market to bottom in the Great Recession. I set a personal high water mark in mid-Oct 2007. Bottomed out in Mar 2009. Both points roughly aligned with the S&P. But when you zoom out, the whole thing looked like a V shape.

Patient, grasshoppper. Your restraint will be rewarded.

Better hold on to my cash, and take pot shots here and there. No need to empty it in one barrage.

By the way, there's no cataclysmic event that parallels the cause of the Great Recession. So any dip will be more moderate. Am I missing something?

 

[MichaelB]

We spend about 10 months a year overseas and I had thought briefly about factoring this in to our asset allocation. I decided against it because we don't have a permanent residence anywhere outside the U.S. nor are we expecting to.

For expats who mostly intend to live in a single country and don't really have any plans to return to the U.S. it probably makes sense to try to hedge your currency risk. For us, the currency we're spending always changes (this year it's Pesos, Euros, Pounds, Kiwis, Aus $, Rand, Pula, and the Namibian dollar). We also expect and plan to eventually "retire" from our travels to the U.S. at some point.

It makes a difference if you are dealing with hard or soft currencies. If you are pension based you don't have much choice, but shifting portfolio assets into a soft currency can have very bad outcomes. No easy answer or simple strategy here.

 

[Fedup]

It took 18 months for the market to bottom in the Great Recession. I set a personal high water mark in mid-Oct 2007. Bottomed out in Mar 2009. Both points roughly aligned with the S&P. But when you zoom out, the whole thing looked like a V shape.

Patient, grasshoppper. Your restraint will be rewarded.

Better hold on to my cash, and take pot shots here and there. No need to empty it in one barrage.

By the way, there's no cataclysmic event that parallels the cause of the Great Recession. So any dip will be more moderate. Am I missing something?

You are right it's a V shape over the long term. But I have a lot more cash than you so don't worry, be happy. I traded my AMAT for XLK in the last few weeks. But I'm being conservative. I've always picked the out of favors one. My goal is to beat by small amount, certainly better than CDs.

 

[kcowan]

My DD is married to a Canadian, however, and his father has business and personal ties in both countries, and they sure are impacted by the very strong variations in exchange rate.

Yes the US stands out as the exception. Most other currencies have held their values to each other.

The S&P can do that without trouble. There is no need for stock picking. Even DVY will do that.

Very impressive history. Worrisome trend though. Perhaps that is behind this thread subject?

It makes a difference if you are dealing with hard or soft currencies. If you are pension based you don't have much choice, but shifting portfolio assets into a soft currency can have very bad outcomes. No easy answer or simple strategy here.

We find some spill over effect, as in, Mexico prices go up because the USD has gone up. OTOH things made in Mexico have generally stayed the same.

 

[NW-Bound]

You are right it's a V shape over the long term. But I have a lot more cash than you so don't worry, be happy...

I was talking to myself, reminding myself to be patient.

Heck, in fact I have been too patient, sitting on that cash for so long waiting for the right moment that it hurts my overall return. Had I thrown it all in the market back in 2009 or even 2010, I would be better off by now despite the recent pull back.

 

[CabinLifeAt50]

My divs (biggest source of cash flow) have been growing at about 7% per year. Not frustrated at all?

About same thing here as well. A lot of great buying opportunities this past year and start of this year with a steady increase in portfolio value. (individual) Dividend growth stocks have been paying off nice and steady while the S&P has been up and down and up an down again.

 

[Fedup]

I was talking to myself, reminding myself to be patient.

Heck, in fact I have been too patient, sitting on that cash for so long waiting for the right moment that it hurts my overall return. Had I thrown it all in the market back in 2009 or even 2010, I would be better off by now despite the recent pull back.

Don't beat yourself too hard. Same with my investment. I have never been fully 100% in stocks since 2004. At best 60% and that's already piled in. I'm not sure I would throw in 100% even if the market drop 10%. Maybe there should be a chicken investment club.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

What if stocks are flat throughout this year and again next year?

In light of this have you perhaps decreased your withdrawal rate if you use a total return approach or supplemented dividend income with cash to cover expenses? Curious to know what others think and if anyone is thinking "outside the box."

We continually try to lower our annual run rate while maintaining or improving our standard of living - actions like making the house more water and energy efficient, getting rid of the landline, and paying less for groceries, so we don't need to withdraw as much from the portfolio. We've probably made hundreds of small cuts, but they really added up. We had a lot of unnecessary expenses in our budget, so for us this has been a very high return on our time.

I also have a number of little passive or simple side income streams that also add up on the income side. I don't have the temperament for much in stocks, and bond/ CD rates are what they are, so to improve our finances I have to increase hobby income or reduce expenses or both.

 

[Fedup]

I'm the exact opposite. I need to remind myself that life is too short and live it up while you can. But I'm not a materialistic person and that means I don't buy much for just looks.

 

[Totoro]

Me too. But even in 2008-2009, it went down slowly and went up slowly. Only in 1987 did it go down sharply in one day.

Count me in the patient waiting for drop camp, self-reminding to stay patient.

50% or so in equities and eventually want to go up to 80%, to stay there indefinitely.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I'm the exact opposite. I need to remind myself that life is too short and live it up while you can. But I'm not a materialistic person and that means I don't buy much for just looks.

I am not sure if this was in response to my post, but if so, I think it is possible to save money and live it up - like using reward points for travel or joining seat filler groups for local events, if you live in an urban area. We have tickets for three plays and a rocket boat ride on the bay in the coming week, plus a free club event and festival on the calendar.

 

[Fedup]

I am not sure if this was in response to my post, but if so, I think it is possible to save money and live it up - like using reward points for travel or joining seat filler groups for local events, if you live in an urban area. We have tickets for three plays and a rocket boat ride on the bay in the coming week, plus a free club event and festival on the calendar.

Yes I like all the free stuff. I will check them out. I live near a university or two.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Yes I like all the free stuff. I will check them out. I live near a university or two.

I have a list of web sites I check, some daily and some weekly depending how often they change. One is a U.C. Berkeley event list. They have quite a bit open to the public for free or low cost. The seat filler lists are kind of wild there is so much stuff. We just dropped the most expensive membership for lack of time.