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Old 02-07-2021, 02:43 PM   #41
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OCD yes. I built my own calc, run i-orp, firecalc on a regular basis. I like playing with my own numbers in my own calc the most.

I am not ER yet, but its been fun to track actual vs expected progress as well. So far we are on track to ER at 50 if we would like to with maintaining our current level of spend all throughout our lives to 99. I run worst case and best case scenarios and they all look good beyond me literally not producing income from now until ER.
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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Old 02-07-2021, 08:41 PM   #42
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I tend to run it when the market goes up, which is, well... pretty often lately. Fast approaching retirement so I'll just say I'm a little infatuated with Firecalc rather than obsessed.
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Old 02-07-2021, 09:45 PM   #43
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When I first discovered FIRECalc and this forum, I was still figuring out my ER, and just started to track my expenses to know what I should know.

Now into the 9th year of retirement, and my annual expenses are no longer in the 6 figures as when the kids were still on college and had not flown the coop, I stopped running FIRECalc long ago.

I never ran any retirement calculator other than FIRECalc. Oh, perhaps I ran I-ORP a few times, but that was to look at Roth conversion strategies.

I stopped having the apprehension of running out of money when I realized that the chance was strong that I would run out of time first, particularly as my WR was getting lower and lower, to around 1% or less now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Tom View Post
Haha, I can relate! I run Firecalc quite often, even though I know full well that it's going to give me the same results. I have always been good at repetitive behavior
It's still good, given that you expect the same result.

You know what they call when people do the same thing over and over and expect a different result.
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Old 02-08-2021, 04:25 AM   #44
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I'll admit to being a bit fanatical about tracking our portfolio and playing with a couple versions of a spreadsheet that model our withdrawal strategy for a planned early retirement in couple years. And, of course checking on various retirement simulators including Firecalc and Vanguard's monte carlo tool.
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Old 02-08-2021, 05:52 AM   #45
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I always advise newbies to use FIRECalc but I can't even recall the last time I ran FIRECalc. A few years into ER I realized it was "working" so I pretty much quit obsessing. I run a crude NW every year now and since it's still going up, I'm golden. Having said that, you could do worse than obsessing on FIRECalc. YMMV
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Old 02-08-2021, 05:52 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I never ran any retirement calculator other than FIRECalc. Oh, perhaps I ran I-ORP a few times, but that was to look at Roth conversion strategies.

I stopped having the apprehension of running out of money when I realized that the chance was strong that I would run out of time first, particularly as my WR was getting lower and lower, to around 1% or less now.


It's still good, given that you expect the same result.

You know what they call when people do the same thing over and over and expect a different result.
I'm pretty much the same. I very occasionally run other retirement calculators. I don't do it with any serious intent though, because I already know what I need to know, namely, that any WR under about 3% or so is sustainable, and the lower it gets, the more cavalier I can feel about market volatility In fact, as far as I'm concerned, from now on, the only retirement calculator I need is the info contained in the previous statement, which I will repeat, simply because I have a little too much time on my hands. The following is the Major Tom retirement calculator -

Any WR under about 3% or so is sustainable, and the lower it gets, the more cavalier I can feel about market volatility.

I don't think I'll ever get to a WR as low as yours, NW-Bound. I'm at 2.4% now. I've been as low as 1.9%, and will get there again - and perhaps a smidgin lower. I'm good with that.

Now where was I? Oh yes, gazing at the schematic of a little circuit I've been building, and drinking tea. Happy days!
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Old 02-08-2021, 08:27 AM   #47
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Firecalc and I-ORP were the main tools I used to get comfortable with early retirement. I shared their results vs our spending patterns (collected in Moneydance) with my wife in a simple report which got her comfortable with early retirement too. I still run both tools each year, update that report and go over it with my wife. These periodic checkups gives us both confidence we don't need to worry about finances too much.
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Old 02-08-2021, 10:37 AM   #48
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LOL maybe since I came across your thread this morning after executing FireCalc and coming here to find the answer to a question.

I know I'm obsessed with Firecalc but I also know why. I retired 6 years ago with only 83% success rate at the lower end of my working career lifestyle. In the 6 years we had lifestyle creep back up as while I was ok with the lesser lifestyle, my long term BF was not as ok as he thought he'd be..to the point he kept working and we re-upsized the house. I hit a new milestone this morning so re-ran the numbers and now at 94.3% success of the larger lifestyle.

I try to limit myself to just times when things may have changed in the calculation, but even then I can find plenty.
- End of year re-cap
- Refinancing the house
- My LTBF contract renewed so I added 1 more year of side income
- We just hit a major milestone in invested assets
- My birthday is coming up so years to support will decrement 1

Pretty sure once we are at 100% (currently $141k away) I will stop being so obsessed so current retired but not confidently retired with 45 more years to go.
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Old 02-08-2021, 11:32 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Tom View Post
Any WR under about 3% or so is sustainable, and the lower it gets, the more cavalier I can feel about market volatility.

I don't think I'll ever get to a WR as low as yours, NW-Bound. I'm at 2.4% now. I've been as low as 1.9%, and will get there again - and perhaps a smidgin lower. I'm good with that.

Now where was I? Oh yes, gazing at the schematic of a little circuit I've been building, and drinking tea. Happy days!
I am not cavalier about market volatility. I look at it as a chance to make money, even if I do not spend it. I take it as a challenge (and I do not play poker, or any card game).
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Old 02-08-2021, 12:00 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karen1972 View Post
my long term BF

- My LTBF contract renewed so I added 1 more year of side income
Edited to remove some stuff.

I read the above line in a different way than you probably meant it.
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Old 02-12-2021, 04:35 PM   #51
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In the years before retiring I would run FIRECalc every so often.

Just prior to retirement I ran my situation through FIRECalc and just about every free retirement calculator known to man, plus my own retirement spreadsheet plus the free (at the time) retirement review from Vanguard. Every one gave me various versions of a green light so I retired.

Now that I am retired, I probably run it once or twice a year when I happen to think of it.
Exactly my situation!
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Old 02-12-2021, 05:04 PM   #52
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I used to be obsessed with running our numbers in Firecalc. But at some point, I started using the feature under the "Investigate" tab that - given a time horizon, an asset allocation and a success rate you provide - calculates the withdrawal rate that would have provided you that success rate.
Great ... you've pointed out a feature that I haven't obsessively tried. I'll be back in a couple days.
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Old 02-12-2021, 07:34 PM   #53
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It shows 100% if we doubled our spending, not much point in checking it again.
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Old 02-13-2021, 05:12 AM   #54
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Firecalc

This calculator is set up very poorly and needs to be revamped as it looks like it was built 10 years ago. Would be nice to see something more user friendly.
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Old 02-13-2021, 09:56 AM   #55
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This calculator is set up very poorly and needs to be revamped as it looks like it was built 10 years ago. Would be nice to see something more user friendly.
I think you are volunteering to do this work? Did I get that correct?
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:04 AM   #56
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:06 AM   #57
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Firecalc was another great way to examine my portfolio, but I haven't used it in years. I have a VERY detailed spreadsheet I started 30 years ago that addresses every aspect of my finances. I enjoy tweaking it often.
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:10 AM   #58
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I think you are volunteering to do this work? Did I get that correct?
there are better ones out there which are more user friendly and give you same info
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Old 02-13-2021, 10:44 AM   #59
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there are better ones out there which are more user friendly and give you same info
Would you be so kind as to share the names of your preferences?
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Old 02-13-2021, 11:54 AM   #60
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there are better ones out there which are more user friendly and give you same info
I guess you missed the memo on discussing religion and politics.
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