So far during this pandemic I have stayed the course in my tax-deferred accounts and stuck to my asset allocation, including a 30% total bond index position, neither buying nor selling.
In my taxable account I have a fairly substantial position in USAA intermediate tax-exempt muni fund (USATX). I’ve read about the pressures on bonds from Covid, and one area starting to get attention is state and municipal bonds. The WSJ yesterday reported:
“...The central bank is limited in its efforts to revive the $4 trillion market for municipal securities, which back everything from school facilities to stadiums and highways. The Fed has so far intervened in only a few corners of the [muni] market, which is fraught with idiosyncrasies that make it difficult to categorize debt as investment-grade or risky, the line in the sand drawn by the Fed to ascertain what it backstops during a crisis.” [State Funding Woes Are Dragging the Fed Into Muni-Market Reboot]
And that same article reports that tens of billions of $ have been pulled out of muni funds since March. The twin pressures of increasing health care costs and decreasing state and local revenues appears to be a recipe for muni defaults, with little Fed backstop.
So now I’m weighing the possibility of moving out of the muni fund into Treasuries or even short term investment grade corporate bonds (which the Fed has pledged to backstop seemingly without limit). Year to date USATX is down only 2.3%. Seems like a reasonable time to make a move if one believes there’s trouble ahead for munis.
In my taxable account I have a fairly substantial position in USAA intermediate tax-exempt muni fund (USATX). I’ve read about the pressures on bonds from Covid, and one area starting to get attention is state and municipal bonds. The WSJ yesterday reported:
“...The central bank is limited in its efforts to revive the $4 trillion market for municipal securities, which back everything from school facilities to stadiums and highways. The Fed has so far intervened in only a few corners of the [muni] market, which is fraught with idiosyncrasies that make it difficult to categorize debt as investment-grade or risky, the line in the sand drawn by the Fed to ascertain what it backstops during a crisis.” [State Funding Woes Are Dragging the Fed Into Muni-Market Reboot]
And that same article reports that tens of billions of $ have been pulled out of muni funds since March. The twin pressures of increasing health care costs and decreasing state and local revenues appears to be a recipe for muni defaults, with little Fed backstop.
So now I’m weighing the possibility of moving out of the muni fund into Treasuries or even short term investment grade corporate bonds (which the Fed has pledged to backstop seemingly without limit). Year to date USATX is down only 2.3%. Seems like a reasonable time to make a move if one believes there’s trouble ahead for munis.