Tigger
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2008
- Messages
- 388
Let's set a date to check back here in a year and see who was right.
Today is one year later...
(one year ago Liz Ann Sonders was quoted in an article, saying: "I'm amazed people still say it's not a 'V'-shaped recovery, which to means they're simply not looking at the charts," (...) And by "charts" she doesn't (just) mean the stock market but trends in both leading and coincident economic indicators, industrial production, and inventories. "They're all 'V'," she says, suggesting many observers are overestimating the impact of consumer spending on both the 2008 downturn and the recovery to date.
Even leading indicators of jobs, including jobless claims and temp hiring, are pointing to growth akin to the strong 1983 recovery vs. the "jobless" recoveries of the early 1990s and 2001, Sonders says. (...) Rather than questioning the recovery, the "more valid debate" is whether the V-shaped pattern that's emerged is "the left side of a 'W' or [part of] a square root sign," Sonders says. "More likely the worst-case scenario is a square-root type recovery. Other than some massive policy mistake akin to the 1930s...the risks of a [‘W'-shaped double-dip] are relatively low." Liz Ann Sonders agrees.)