Back in the Green!

[audreyh1]

My retirement fund all time high was also in Oct 2007, although I came very, very close to it again in May 2008. In early March 2009 the portfolio was down 40% from that all time high.

As of now it is down only 25% from that all time high.

Even though I am nowhere near that peak (which at the end of 2007 was 62% above what I retired with in 1999), I'm feeling pretty cheery about the recovery so far!

Probably because now at least the portfolio is also 25% ahead of when I retired in 1999, D feeling green!) whereas in early March 2009 it was slightly under the initial (1999) portfolio value!

Audrey

 

[crazy connie]

W2R nailed it as individual perception. I am happy to have more now than when I retired and got a lump sum. I am also happy that it is higher now than my all time high. The part that pleases me the most is the recovery from where it has been in the first quarter of this year.

We can do analysis paralysis and sit on our pity pots or get on with fighting back via education and good purchasing/selling decisions. To some extent we all roll the dice and being in the money feels Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat! Being greener than you were in March Audrey, I am sure this feels better!

 

[REWahoo]

Here is a chart showing our monthly portfolio value since I retired four years ago (the gridlines are oddball for those of you who might be trying to decipher actual amounts ). Investment gains/losses are muddy since we've lived entirely off the portfolio prior to starting SS in February.

In March of 09 we were down 29% from where we started, 37% from the high in June of 07. As of today we are down 20% from when I retired - an amount roughly equal to our expenses over the past four years.

I can't claim to feel "Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!", but at least I no longer feet "Baaaaaaaaaad"!

 

[crazy connie]

Glad to hear that REWahoo!

 

[ejman]

Here is a chart showing our monthly portfolio value since I retired four years ago (the gridlines are oddball for those of you who might be trying to decipher actual amounts ). Investment gains/losses are muddy since we've lived entirely off the portfolio prior to starting SS in February.

In March of 09 we were down 29% from where we started, 37% from the high in June of 07. As of today we are down 20% from when I retired - an amount roughly equal to our expenses over the past four years.

I can't claim to feel "Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!", but at least I no longer feet "Baaaaaaaaaad"!

That's great! Also, I see from the chart that you already know what the returns will be in June and July of 09 - Could I please have a copy of that program? I really would like to be able to peek a couple of months into the future...

 

[Stevewc]

That's great! Also, I see from the chart that you already know what the returns will be in June and July of 09 - Could I please have a copy of that program? I really would like to be able to peek a couple of months into the future...

Hey, Careful now.
You do realize your fooling with a man of tha Cloth don't you?
Steve

 

[REWahoo]

... I see from the chart that you already know what the returns will be in June and July of 09 - Could I please have a copy of that program?

Sorry, the program is proprietary. However, subscriptions to my newsletter are available here if you are interested.

 

[Dawg52]

My retirement fund all time high was also in Oct 2007, although I came very, very close to it again in May 2008. In early March 2009 the portfolio was down 40% from that all time high.

As of now it is down only 25% from that all time high.


Audrey

Pretty much the same here. Hard for me to 'feel' in the green.

 

[W2R]

I computed my monthly portfolio averages since July and tried to display in a similar way to REWahoo's graph.

You can see similar shapes in the ups and downs during that period. But look at what a difference the income from working (no withdrawals from my portfolio), and adding to my TSP (the only additions to my portfolio during this time) made. It softened the declines, and is a visual reminder of how much tougher this recession has been for retirees than for us wannabes. I think our asset allocation is roughly the same - - mine is 45:55 with 30% Wellesley, and I think his is not much different.

The top graph is REWahoo's, and the bottom graph is mine. I tried to make the "pseudo-units" on the vertical axis about the same for the present.

 

[Dawg52]

Here is a chart showing our monthly portfolio value since I retired four years ago (the gridlines are oddball for those of you who might be trying to decipher actual amounts ). Investment gains/losses are muddy since we've lived entirely off the portfolio prior to starting SS in February.

In March of 09 we were down 29% from where we started, 37% from the high in June of 07. As of today we are down 20% from when I retired - an amount roughly equal to our expenses over the past four years.

I can't claim to feel "Grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!", but at least I no longer feet "Baaaaaaaaaad"!

We need some $ numbers along the side of that chart.

 

[REWahoo]

It softened the declines, and is a visual reminder of how much tougher this recession has been for retirees than for us wannabes.

Watching the trend line from the Fall of 2007 through March of 2009 was an "interesting" experience - one I'd prefer to forgo for the next two or three decades...

 

[W2R]

Watching the trend line from the Fall of 2007 through March of 2009 was an "interesting" experience - one I'd prefer to forgo for the next two or three decades...

I sincerely and fervently hope that you don't ever have that "interesting" experience again! Especially since I would have to experience it as a retiree as well, if it is after November 9th.

 

[audreyh1]

Pretty much the same here. Hard for me to 'feel' in the green.

In Oct 20007 when the portfolio was 62% above where we started in 1999, I was feeling very, very flush. So it's hard to feel that bad now that we're only 25% from that number, especially as we were below where we started retirement only two months ago!

I guess I have been psychologically prepared for it to take many years to return to that all-time-high peak of Oct 2007. In the mean time I've got lots of living to do.

Audrey

 

[NW-Bound]

Gee! RW and W2R, your graphs are so flat I would think you have been making mountains out of molehills. When I get a chance to graph it, will show you mine.

Basically, from March 2000 to March 2003, I lost 50% due to a tech-heavy portfolio. Then, from March 2003 to Oct 2007, triple my portfolio by abandoning tech stocks to get into utilities, healthcare, mining, fertilizer, energy related stocks, etc... Currently, at 24% below that Oct 07 high, due to going from 70% equities to 30%, then back to 50% currently. Would have lost much more if I kept the same stocks I did in Oct 07.

Now, that's a white-knuckle roller coaster ride that I hope to learn to smooth out, or better yet to convert to a climbing staircase shape.


PS. I never buy stocks on margin. In fact, I am never more than 70% in equities. Having little bonds, the rest I keep in Cash + MM + CD + I-bonds.

 

[W2R]

Gee! RW and W2R, your graphs are so flat I would think you have been making mountains out of molehills.

From about 2004-2006 my asset allocation was 100% equities, so I know what you mean. I did pretty well in that bull market but couldn't handle that level of risk any more.

I have to admit that the last year has been a wonderful test of risk tolerance. I guess my asset allocation worked out OK for now since I was scared to death but didn't sell low. But then, my risk with this AA is less while I am still working than it will be next year, after ER.

 

[ejman]

Oh well, since RW won't share that wonderful future looking program... I guess I'll just have to stick to old fashioned AA. With my upper bumper at 60% equities, I see after Friday I'm now pushing 56%. What a roller coaster! a little while ago I was wondering if I would have the fortitude to actually buy equities as my portfolio got closer to my lower equities limit of 50%. Now I'm wondering about the other side of that coin. Jeez, I'm getting too old for all this excitement...

 

[HFWR]

Jeez, I'm getting too old for all this excitement...

This is what I learned. Oh, wrong thread...

This is my very own roller coaster ride. Data is quarterly, except for the last data point, included to show present value. The chart doesn't show the absolute high, but got close.

 

[crazy connie]

Very Nice recovery HFWR!

 

[NW-Bound]

Now, that's a more interesting graph, although you "only" doubled it from 2003 to 2007. Figure out how to replicate that going forward, and you will retire rich! Maybe do nothing and it will come?

I did well in that period, but they say not to push one's luck. On the other hand, I feel the need to tweak my portfolio. Can't resist it, but it's not hormones like Uncle Mick always says... When drifting down a rapid in a raft, do you paddle or just let it drift?

OK, OK, Uncle Mick's porfolio is not drifting guidelessly either; he relies on an autopilot. But then you are trusting the people who design the autopilot, and I do not know them. I have heard stories about airliner crashes where the pilots should have disconnected the autopilots and flew manually.

I guess time will tell if my slicing and dicing will do any good.

 

[REWahoo]

Now, that's a more interesting graph...

If "interesting" = volatility, this is one contest where I'm happy to have my chart labeled "boring".

 

[haha]

From Oct 07 to now, my accounts are -$250,000. During that time I have received about $10,000 in SS income, and spent $87,000 on taxes and expenses of all kinds. So, my investment result is $250,000 less ($87,000-$10,000)=- $173,000. I should soon get a tax refund which will help but not materially.

If I felt confident that we have seen a durable bottom I would feel not good, but OK.

Unfortunately, I am not at all confident about this market "bottom".

Ha

 

[HFWR]

If "interesting" = volatility, this is one contest where I'm happy to have my chart labeled "boring".

Pick your slope...

 

[NW-Bound]

Now, HWFR's plot looks like that of a "chartist".

I could never figure out those technical charts. Looks like you could draw lines between any two points of your choice to draw any conclusion you wish. Most often, to cover all bases, they would draw multiple conclusions to be safe.

If I felt confident that we have seen a durable bottom I would feel not good, but OK.

Unfortunately, I am not at all confident about this market "bottom".
Ha

I don't feel good about the gummint pumping money into the system to rescue it either. However, I've got to go along for the ride, and enjoy it while it lasts. My guess is that the market will not drop lower but may languish for a long time, unless some wonderful things that we have not foreseen happen.

Can never say never; as recent as the early 80s, watching "The Day After", who would have thought the Berlin wall would crumble a few years later. But I am still going to hedge by looking overseas, trying to invest in countries and companies trading with the Chinese. The Chinese rise to a powerful economic country is not a matter of if but when, in my opinion. And it will occur in the next 10 years, before I am even eligible for early SS.