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Old 03-04-2021, 09:57 PM   #1
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:16 PM   #2
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Here's a simple picture that shows the different components that comprise a bond's yield:



Bond holders will sell if the expectations (real rate ~= economic growth, inflation) start to rise, which in turn will cause those yields to rise. You can sort of break out those two components by looking at nominals vs TIPS.

And the term premium increases as uncertainty increases.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:58 PM   #3
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Things go the way they should, until they don't...
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