being frugal/saving vs investments

[bclover]

Here is an expert opinion


John Bogle says you won’t make much money from stocks - MarketWatch

Interestingly enough I know folks who pretty much use this rationale to NOT invest at all. I have pHd Chemist (so pretty smart cookies) that will only do the bare minimum in the 401K because they don't trust the stock market.

Bogle then asserted that fund fees of, say, 1%, will destroy much of that balanced portfolio’s real return. Combined with advisor fees of 0.50% (a conservative number), investors may be left with nothing after adjusting for inflation.

Moreover, taxes and well-documented investor bad behavior (buying funds at high points and selling them lower) will likely erode investor returns further.

Benz raised the question of whether investors should invest at all given this forecast, and Bogle said, “Invest we must.” The reason for that is cash is yielding virtually nothing, which means it’s producing a negative return in real or inflation-adjusted returns.

[B]Given Bogle’s grim view, however, it isn’t clear why investing really is better since it can also produce negative real returns[.

 

[Big_Hitter]

[B]Given Bogle’s grim view, however, it isn’t clear why investing really is better since it can also produce negative real returns[/B].

that's why it's called a risk premium

 

[daylatedollarshort]

for us being frugal. It also has the advantage of needing less to live on.
the closer you are to being to live on SSN (and maybe Pension) the less
money you'll need from your investments

I think that is also a good point. It has been one of our goals (or at least come close) in lowering our annual run rate. We're not big risk takers, so it means we can invest the portfolio just for inflation adjusted capital preservation or maybe a bit better, since it isn't funding our basic lifestyle, just a few splurges now and then and taxes on RMDs.

 

[gayl]

Bogle is that crackpot that thinks people would be foolish enough to put money into mutual funds that just invest in all stocks as opposed to just investing in the good stocks. Crazy idea.

Reading farther down thread, he apparently misses the point of ETFs < 0.05% fees over mutual funds

Bogle then asserted that fund fees of, say, 1%, will destroy much of that balanced portfolio’s real return. Combined with advisor fees of 0.50% (a conservative number), investors may be left with nothing after adjusting for inflation.

 

[REWahoo]

Reading farther down thread, he apparently misses the point of ETFs < 0.05% fees over mutual funds

Yeah, old Bogle is a real dunderhead. It's beyond me he somehow managed to revolutionize individual investing and create a multi-billion dollar mutual fund industry.

 

[gayl]

We agree to disagree as to whether he has kept up

 

[Bestwifeever]

We agree to disagree as to whether he has kept up

Reading farther down thread, he apparently misses the point of ETFs < 0.05% fees over mutual funds

Okay, I just can't any more . I'll help you out a little. You first might want to search John Bogle on Google. (I like to do this when I haven't heard of someone or something on these boards just as a protective maneuver )

In this article about him Forbes Welcome his feelings on ETFs are addressed:

First, Bogle makes it clear that broad index ETFs are just fine. In fact Bogle’s Vanguard runs some of the best of them. And he says during his interview that it doesn’t matter if you own the Vanguard Total Stock Market mutual fund (VTSMX) or the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI). He is “vehicle agnostic.”

(hint: "Bogle's Vanguard" isn't just talking about his personal account there)

 

[gayl]

Can we agree to disagree? FWIW I had heard of him and the Bogleheads, it was tongue in cheek. If this site has his philosophy in a nutshell:
Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 investing rules—ignore the rest

1. Don't rebalance
2. Don't invest oversees
3. Diversification means bonds
4. Simplicity = less worry time

Well I concur with #4 but I'd leave a lot on the table if i followed his rules and I don't want to do that yet. I went from 80k in 2006 (Pre recession) to over 600k this month despite gifting out 100k last yr

Edited: (oops ... forgot to add real estate, I diversify)

 

[Bestwifeever]

well, then, never mind. Good luck with your finances.

 

[REWahoo]

If this site has his philosophy in a nutshell:
Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 investing rules—ignore the rest

1. Don't rebalance
2. Don't invest oversees
3. Diversification means bonds
4. Simplicity = less worry time

In the interest of accuracy, those four items do not correctly summarize Bogle's philosophy - nor do they even accurately summarize what he said in the article.

Those four items are your summary of CNBC sound bites, sound bites which, as usual, don't tell the entire story. For example, under the caption "Diversification means bonds" the article actually said this:

If you are perfectly comfortable with risk, you'd put your asset allocation into a 100 percent stock portfolio and keep it there until you die, because historically, that's the kind of asset that has produced the best returns over the longest period of time. But an all-equity portfolio in 2007–09 would have been a disaster, a point Bogle made in his book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds." Your portfolio would have recovered eventually, but what if you needed the money during that time span?

Bogle uses bonds to leaven equity risk in his portfolio. He's comfortable with a simple portfolio, increasing the bond allocation as he ages, because he wants to reduce the risk of a sudden, massive drop in value.

But you can also use funds that represent other asset classes to reduce volatility, like REITs, international stocks and international bonds. It's more complicated, but research suggests you will get some benefit in terms of reduced risk and, perhaps, higher returns.

You might want spend a little time and understand Bogle's philosophy before being too critical of his investment views. Here's a good place to start: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

 

[Al in Ohio]

Retire with a mortgage. Who does that


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Big_Hitter]

We agree to disagree as to whether he has kept up

seriously?

 

[Big_Hitter]

but I'd leave a lot on the table if i followed his rules and I don't want to do that yet.

you're actually leaving a lot OFF the table if you do differently

 

[kneehigh]

[/b] I went from 80k in 2006 (Pre recession) to over 600k this month despite gifting out 100k last yr

That's better than .22% return minus recession effect. I'm hiring you as my FA.

 

[samclem]

As long as I'm beating SPY I'll use my own perspective (combo of fundamental, technical, and emotional analysis)

Throw in behavioral and astrological analysis for even better insight (and more diversity!)

 

[RobbieB]

What had a bigger impact-saving/being frugal or investments - on reaching FIRE? Can you quantify or give one suggestion?

This is really pretty easy. You have to save to be able to invest. Being frugal means that you can save and invest more.

They all work together -

 

[travelover]

.............Popping popcorn and getting comfortable...........

 

[nash031]

I have always been on the Savings bandwagon. Frugal yes, but not so as it deprives you of life's pleasures.

This +1. Can't really invest meaningfully if you don't LBYM (or invest on margin, I suppose...)

 

[Big_Hitter]

you don't understand charts, brackets, and doing your homework? ?

Professional investors understand that way better than most. That's why day (stock, not fund) traders usually get killed. I prefer passive index funds myself after studying portfolio theory...

 

[samclem]

you don't understand charts, brackets, and doing your homework? Or making a lot and getting your .25% in savings

Do we agree to disagree about what gets us to FIREd?

If you don't understand the astrological charts and terminology, you are ignoring important tools that are at least as useful and scientific as technical and "emotional" analysis.

Astrological analysis:

Alchochoden, "the giver of the years", meaning the planet which, in the natal chart, reveals the number of years that the person is going to live. It is determined by finding the planet that has most essential dignity, whilst being in good aspect to the hyleg.

Now, compare that to any "technical analysis" discussion about using Fibonacci retracement strategies or the much-sought "candlestick pattern" and we can see clear parallels.

 

[Another Reader]

you don't understand charts, brackets, and doing your homework? Or making a lot and getting your .25% in savings

Do we agree to disagree about what gets us to FIREd?

If you are that good, you need to get a job as a trader on Wall Street. I'm sure if you could show your results, trade by trade, someone would be willing to pay you a lot more than what you have made in your trading account, for playing with bigger numbers.

If it were really as easy as understanding charts, brackets and doing homework, most people here would be too busy spending their millions to boast about their returns. It will be interesting to see if you can maintain your reported rate of return over the next 10 years.

I have leveraged myself to a comfortable net worth through real estate. Real estate is easier to understand, usually more predictable, and heavily subsidized by the tax code. Looking forward to comparing net worth with you after ten more years.

 

[samclem]

If you are that good, you need to get a job as a trader on Wall Street. I'm sure if you could show your results, trade by trade, someone would be willing to pay you a lot more than what you have made in your trading account, for playing with bigger numbers.

Or, go the even easier and more lucrative route. gayl could simply buy options on the trading being done, and short the other side for good measure. At, say, 10:1 leverage, one could grow fabulously rich if they did only a wee bit better than the market. Funny, but despite all the traders who have a system they are sure really works (after all, you just have to understand charts, brackets, and do a little homework), we don't hear many real stories of people taking this simple approach to vast wealth. All the winners are probably just modest.

 

[rodi]

I have a friend who mastered the LBYMs lifestyle. About 20 years ago I noticed he never expanded his lifestyle beyond the college lifestyle. But that allowed him to take off to Mexico for an extended (multi-month) trip... And to relocate, seasonally, to his favorite places. He never had high paying jobs - typically working retail.... But he worked hard and saved a lot... He lives in places that have high seasons - so he works hard and saves during the high season, then travels, or lives local during the low season... when work dries up. He would not have this lifestyle if he wasn't super frugal. But since retail doesn't pay the same as being a scientist, engineer, etc - he does not have huge retirement savings.

I found a balance in the middle. I've saved in 401k etc since graduating college - increasing the percentage over time. I also started focusing on reducing my monthly spend... For me - that latter got me to retirement a few years before my "plan".

I don't try to time the market with emotional analysis and option calls... I've had poor luck with that. I've had much better results since I adopted a lazy portfolio. I have my mutual funds (could have ETFs - but the expense ratios are similar for index ETFs and index mutual funds at Schwab... and I haven't bothered to convert.)

 

[RobbieB]

You all doubt gayl?

If you bought facebook at IPO you would have tripled in 4 years. If you bought low you would have 6X.

It can be done.

 

[Another Reader]

Trust but verify....

I knew a lot of day traders back in the late 90's that made a lot of money for a couple of years. It was easy to be right when the market only went up. A few managed to survive and prosper, most did not. The ones that were successful longer term, generally did not go on-line or to other gatherings and brag about their success while belittling others.

Gayl is not claiming she made a couple of astute investments. She's claiming she reads charts, uses brackets, essentially that she has a trading system. If she's successful, more power to her. However, to me, the bragging and contempt for others she expresses makes her sound more like a gambler on a roll than an astute investor.