Bengen on his "4% rule"

[NW-Bound]

Yes.

Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...

 

[W2R]

Yes.

Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...

Quite an assumption, isn't it. Even though FIRECalc is a nice tool, it is just a model.

"All models are wrong, but some models are useful." - - G. E. P. Box

 

[obgyn65]

So do I. And sometimes I feel guilty about having these thoughts.

That's OK. I always like counting money more than spending it anyway.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

It beats the dumb picture I had in my ignorance before I learned something. Tools like FireCalc have saved me from catastrophe. Maybe not disaster, but catastrophe, yes.

 

[alexbalex]

You guys need to upgrade to the newest Quicken version! It seems to come with anti-wh*** protection.

sorry, dumb question I know, but what does wh*** stand for?

 

[rescueme]

Now, if it can also guarantee the future will be like the past...

Then we would get younger, year by year (no thanks! )...

 

[MichaelB]

sorry, dumb question I know, but what does wh*** stand for?

Not dumb at all. A veteran member of the forum has occasionally looked at her portfolio after a nice market run-up, liked what she saw, and posted about it, using the term Wh***. Every time, the maket falls shortly thereafter. Coincidence? Can't be. As they saw, forewarned is twice warned.

 

[alexbalex]

thanks! That makes more sense

 

[MichaelB]

Watch out. She said it last week. The whole forum is on edge

 

[alexbalex]

Watch out. She said it last week. The whole forum is on edge

uh oh. Looks like I picked a bad day to buy $15K in index funds

 

[Bikerdude]

So, I guess the author is not among those who cry "Wh***".

You mean like this:

 

[audreyh1]

Not dumb at all. A veteran member of the forum has occasionally looked at her portfolio after a nice market run-up, liked what she saw, and posted about it, using the term "Wh***". Every time, the maket falls shortly thereafter. Coincidence? Can't be. As they saw, forewarned is twice warned.

You're not supposed to spell the jinx word out. Arrrgh!

Prob is, W2R gets excited just as we touch old highs. She can't wait until we get 5% or 10% above them. We are doomed, doomed I tell ya!

 

[MichaelB]

You're not supposed to spell the jinx word out. Arrrgh!

Prob is, W2R gets excited just as we touch old highs. She can't wait until we get 5% or 10% above them. We are doomed, doomed I tell ya!

Doesn't matter if I write it. She's the one. And she did it last week. I agree, another 10% woulda been nice...

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, for newcomers to this forum, the following was the original "Wh***" thread in 2007 that brought down Bear Stearns, Merril Lynch, and numerous other businesses, caused the market to lose nearly 50% of its value, wiped out trillions of dollars of equities world-wide.

===>> http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/record-dow-whee-30317.html

Yes, it was the original "Wh***" that rang around the world. We have all been there, and barely survived it. Actually, some less fortunate forum members have vanished since that time, either toiling back at some w*rk, or their current living conditions do not even include Internet access for them to post here.

Now, you know why forum members run scared like headless chicken when we hear that word. How do tsunami survivors react when someone cries "earthquake"? OK, you've got the idea.

Back on this thread about SWR, a few more "Wh***", and people will be talking about 2%SWR. I dunno about y'all, but I cannot live on that meager WR, and may just keep my part-time work a bit longer.

 

[haha]

I believe I could live for 1000 years on my WR, if only my body and the world's politico-economic path would cooperate. With my nice but no way luxurious w.o.l., my withdrawal rate since SS began is well south of 1%.

I called my buddy to see if he would like to attend a Robert Shiller lecture with me. Sure he said, but I have to go on a cruise with my wife.

It is much easier to live cheaply if everything you spend other than medical has to meet your own criterion for pleasure per $. So while he is spending several thousand dollars on a rather humdrum and totally unneeded vacation, I'll spend $5 for a lecture with a very prominant academic close enough for me to walk, and maybe a max of $150 over the same period of his cruise on sashimi and wine entertaiment.

Ha

 

[ERhoosier]

...... only thing tighter than a tight Scotsman was a liberal Dutchman. Copper wire was invented by two Dutchmen fighting over a penny.

ROFL